Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 25 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,252

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares891

Combined PnL-$219.41

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.7¢	$983.26	$2.0K	+$1.0K	58% 37728-26945 (64673)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$209.07	54% 15461-12923 (28384)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$797.06	$1.2K	+$416.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$625.76	—	-$625.76
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$18.93	64% 58129-32808 (90937)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$569.36	$1.0K	+$468.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.6¢	$449.18	—	-$449.18
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$505.35	$527.44	+$22.09	56% 13719-10915 (24634)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$331.71	$527.44	+$195.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$173.63	—	-$173.63
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 77.8¢	$450.55	$461.95	+$11.4	66% 99072-51320 (150392)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63¢	$325.31	$365.65	+$40.34	56% 12434-9581 (22015)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 77.1¢	$326.07	$420.93	+$94.86	57% 7763-5950 (13713)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$252.41	$275.48	+$23.08	55% 7798-6445 (14243)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$188.19	$275.48	+$87.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.2¢	$64.22	—	-$64.22
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.6¢	$264.47	$298.32	+$33.85	58% 50939-37072 (88011)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$233.15	$245.05	+$11.9	49% 5160-5320 (10480)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$167.05	$245.05	+$78
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$66.11	—	-$66.11
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 84.9¢	$240.88	$238.03	-$2.85	55% 7362-6039 (13401)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68.2¢	$163.39	$209.37	+$45.97	57% 11944-8950 (20894)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 34.7¢	$86.75	—	-$86.75	34% 18719-35716 (54435)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$108	$115.38	+$7.38	58% 12586-9256 (21842)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$60	$115.38	+$55.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$48	—	-$48
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$76.1	$100.45	+$24.36	51% 17039-16590 (33629)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$60.26	$100.45	+$40.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.8¢	$15.84	—	-$15.84
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 76.3¢	$103.48	$95.13	-$8.35	60% 12150-8027 (20177)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$92.66	$75.23	-$17.42	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$52.66	$75.23	+$22.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$39.99	—	-$39.99
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 91.1¢	$61.11	$64.38	+$3.27	77% 9361-2804 (12165)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 32.4¢	$53.2	—	-$53.2	55% 8583-7015 (15598)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 51¢	$37.21	$54.75	+$17.54	59% 6693-4671 (11364)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$32.89	—	-$32.89	56% 57878-44713 (102591)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$27	—	+$23.4	51% 19978-19143 (39121)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$25.83	$42	+$16.17	55% 44682-37145 (81827)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 21.9¢	$20.59	—	-$20.59	64% 39962-22836 (62798)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$28.84	—	-$21.54	64% 22724-12523 (35247)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$983.26

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

37728-26945 (64673)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,422.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$209.07

Record

54%

15461-12923 (28384)

Both legs:

Down$797.0665.7¢+$416.68

Up$625.7639.1¢-$625.76

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,018.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$18.93

Record

64%

58129-32808 (90937)

Both legs:

Down$569.3654.9¢+$468.11

Up$449.1835.6¢-$449.18

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.35

Value

$527.44

PnL

+$22.09

Record

56%

13719-10915 (24634)

Both legs:

Down$331.7162.9¢+$195.72

Up$173.6338.7¢-$173.63

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$450.55

Value

$461.95

PnL

+$11.4

Record

66%

99072-51320 (150392)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$325.31

Value

$365.65

PnL

+$40.34

Record

56%

12434-9581 (22015)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$326.07

Value

$420.93

PnL

+$94.86

Record

57%

7763-5950 (13713)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$252.41

Value

$275.48

PnL

+$23.08

Record

55%

7798-6445 (14243)

Both legs:

Down$188.1968.3¢+$87.29

Up$64.2217.2¢-$64.22

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$264.47

Value

$298.32

PnL

+$33.85

Record

58%

50939-37072 (88011)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$233.15

Value

$245.05

PnL

+$11.9

Record

49%

5160-5320 (10480)

Both legs:

Down$167.0568.2¢+$78

Up$66.1130.1¢-$66.11

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$240.88

Value

$238.03

PnL

-$2.85

Record

55%

7362-6039 (13401)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$163.39

Value

$209.37

PnL

+$45.97

Record

57%

11944-8950 (20894)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$86.75

Value

—

PnL

-$86.75

Record

34%

18719-35716 (54435)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108

Value

$115.38

PnL

+$7.38

Record

58%

12586-9256 (21842)

Both legs:

Invested

$76.1

Value

$100.45

PnL

+$24.36

Record

51%

17039-16590 (33629)

Both legs:

Down$60.2660¢+$40.2

Up$15.8410.8¢-$15.84

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$103.48

Value

$95.13

PnL

-$8.35

Record

60%

12150-8027 (20177)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$92.66

Value

$75.23

PnL

-$17.42

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

Both legs:

Invested

$61.11

Value

$64.38

PnL

+$3.27

Record

77%

9361-2804 (12165)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$53.2

Value

—

PnL

-$53.2

Record

55%

8583-7015 (15598)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$37.21

Value

$54.75

PnL

+$17.54

Record

59%

6693-4671 (11364)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$32.89

Value

—

PnL

-$32.89

Record

56%

57878-44713 (102591)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$27

Value

—

PnL

+$23.4

Record

51%

19978-19143 (39121)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$25.83

Value

$42

PnL

+$16.17

Record

55%

44682-37145 (81827)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$20.59

Value

—

PnL

-$20.59

Record

64%

39962-22836 (62798)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$28.84

Value

—

PnL

-$21.54

Record

64%

22724-12523 (35247)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 25 top traders (52%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x757bf407...b28053

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793321700

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.0K

+$1.0K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $461.95

+$11.4

FairValueMachine

Down — $365.65

+$40.34

wzbbb

Down — $420.93

+$94.86

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$23.08

PBot-6

Down — $298.32

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded