Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$761.52

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 30 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,186

Combined PnL+$78.41

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,328

Combined PnL-$839.93

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 87.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$95.56	66% 99072-51320 (150392)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 65.5¢	$886.12	$812.86	-$73.25	54% 15461-12923 (28384)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$498.82	$480.29	-$18.53	64% 58129-32808 (90937)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$248.26	$480.29	+$232.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$250.56	—	-$250.56
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59.6¢	$475.55	$427.29	-$48.26	56% 13719-10915 (24634)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 49.4¢	$337.82	—	-$337.82	58% 37728-26945 (64673)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.7¢	$250.29	$252.14	+$1.85	60% 12150-8027 (20177)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78.8¢	$209.31	$190.6	-$18.71	55% 7362-6039 (13401)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72¢	$165.38	$158.47	-$6.91	49% 5160-5320 (10480)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 41.2¢	$198.13	—	-$198.13	56% 12434-9581 (22015)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 80¢	$138.08	$136.31	-$1.77	55% 7798-6445 (14243)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 36.6¢	$104	$57.12	-$46.88	58% 12586-9256 (21842)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$80	—	-$80
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$24	$57.12	+$33.12
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 65.4¢	$85.82	$128.79	+$42.97	58% 60398-44091 (104489)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$4.43	—	-$4.43	59% 62163-43312 (105475)
BoneOhio	Downavg 79¢	$82.12	$103.95	+$21.83	74% 102386-36369 (138755)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 58¢	$141.76	—	-$141.76	57% 11944-8950 (20894)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 49.9¢	$50.08	$100.29	+$50.21	56% 57878-44713 (102591)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$11.7	—	-$11.7	51% 19978-19143 (39121)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 13.2¢	$47.69	—	-$47.69	57% 7763-5950 (13713)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50¢	$30.32	$34.26	+$3.94	59% 6693-4671 (11364)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$22.37	$26.67	+$4.3	64% 39962-22836 (62798)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 43¢	$11.35	$20	+$8.65	64% 22724-12523 (35247)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$12.51	—	-$12.51	58% 50939-37072 (88011)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 72¢	$12.73	$10.74	-$1.99	66% 112010-58363 (170373)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$14.6	—	-$14.6	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 5.3¢	$10.96	—	-$10.96	55% 8583-7015 (15598)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,688.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$95.56

Record

66%

99072-51320 (150392)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$886.12

Value

$812.86

PnL

-$73.25

Record

54%

15461-12923 (28384)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$498.82

Value

$480.29

PnL

-$18.53

Record

64%

58129-32808 (90937)

Both legs:

Down$248.2651.7¢+$232.03

Up$250.5654.6¢-$250.56

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$475.55

Value

$427.29

PnL

-$48.26

Record

56%

13719-10915 (24634)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$337.82

Value

—

PnL

-$337.82

Record

58%

37728-26945 (64673)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$250.29

Value

$252.14

PnL

+$1.85

Record

60%

12150-8027 (20177)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$209.31

Value

$190.6

PnL

-$18.71

Record

55%

7362-6039 (13401)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$165.38

Value

$158.47

PnL

-$6.91

Record

49%

5160-5320 (10480)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$198.13

Value

—

PnL

-$198.13

Record

56%

12434-9581 (22015)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$138.08

Value

$136.31

PnL

-$1.77

Record

55%

7798-6445 (14243)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$104

Value

$57.12

PnL

-$46.88

Record

58%

12586-9256 (21842)

Both legs:

Up$8036.6¢-$80

Down$2442¢+$33.12

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$85.82

Value

$128.79

PnL

+$42.97

Record

58%

60398-44091 (104489)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

—

PnL

-$4.43

Record

59%

62163-43312 (105475)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$82.12

Value

$103.95

PnL

+$21.83

Record

74%

102386-36369 (138755)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$141.76

Value

—

PnL

-$141.76

Record

57%

11944-8950 (20894)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$50.08

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$50.21

Record

56%

57878-44713 (102591)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

—

PnL

-$11.7

Record

51%

19978-19143 (39121)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$47.69

Value

—

PnL

-$47.69

Record

57%

7763-5950 (13713)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$30.32

Value

$34.26

PnL

+$3.94

Record

59%

6693-4671 (11364)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$22.37

Value

$26.67

PnL

+$4.3

Record

64%

39962-22836 (62798)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$11.35

Value

$20

PnL

+$8.65

Record

64%

22724-12523 (35247)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

—

PnL

-$12.51

Record

58%

50939-37072 (88011)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$10.74

PnL

-$1.99

Record

66%

112010-58363 (170373)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

—

PnL

-$14.6

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

—

PnL

-$10.96

Record

55%

8583-7015 (15598)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 30 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x255bf519...d3cc4d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793321100

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

+$95.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $812.86

-$73.25

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$18.53

GoodFallen

Down — $427.29

-$48.26

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$337.82

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $252.14

+$1.85

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $190.6

-$18.71

ply-pm0

Down — $158.47

-$6.91

FairValueMachine

CTR

Up — $0

-$198.13

sfkjbsr457

Down — $136.31

-$1.77

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