Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 61%
2 arb excluded
$16.7K
-$648.9
Smart Money Signal
21 of 35 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Down | $7.1K | $7.1K | +$27.75 | 56% 3640-2826 (6466) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 94.8¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$113.38 | 66% 99072-51320 (150392) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$1.33 | 59% 62163-43312 (105475) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$22.73 | 93% 23157-1756 (24913) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.5¢ | $759.42 | $595.4 | -$164.02 | 64% 58129-32808 (90937) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 95.9¢ | $578.18 | $586.99 | +$8.81 | 55% 44682-37145 (81827) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.6¢ | $575.41 | $543.11 | -$32.3 | 54% 15461-12923 (28384) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 42¢ | $400 | — | -$400 | 37% 142-243 (385) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 69.1¢ | $254 | $277.06 | +$23.06 | 56% 13719-10915 (24634) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 76.8¢ | $248.31 | $232.93 | -$15.38 | 60% 12150-8027 (20177) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $215.49 | $182.98 | -$32.51 | 58% 37728-26945 (64673) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $129.07 | — | -$129.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.2¢ | $86.42 | $182.98 | +$96.56 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 70.8¢ | $123.33 | $148.93 | +$25.59 | 55% 8583-7015 (15598) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.5¢ | $144.62 | — | -$144.62 | 58% 50939-37072 (88011) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 89.7¢ | $136.38 | $152.03 | +$15.65 | 74% 102386-36369 (138755) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $130.9 | $142.1 | +$11.2 | 55% 7798-6445 (14243) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $104.9 | $130 | +$25.1 | 56% 12434-9581 (22015) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $72.8 | $130 | +$57.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $32.1 | — | -$32.1 | |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $98.06 | $90 | -$8.06 | 49% 5160-5320 (10480) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.7¢ | $60.82 | — | -$60.82 | 57% 11944-8950 (20894) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $63.45 | $68.98 | +$8.18 | 55% 7362-6039 (13401) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $30.68 | — | -$30.68 | 64% 39962-22836 (62798) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $46.64 | $67.6 | +$20.96 | 56% 57878-44713 (102591) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $27.5 | — | -$27.5 | 34% 18719-35716 (54435) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 55% 23790-19221 (43011) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $24 | $49.48 | +$25.48 | 58% 12586-9256 (21842) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $23.04 | $24 | +$0.96 | 51% 17039-16590 (33629) |
Invested
$7,068.76
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$27.75
Record
56%
3640-2826 (6466)
Invested
$3,497.71
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$113.38
Record
66%
99072-51320 (150392)
Invested
$1,325.03
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.33
Record
59%
62163-43312 (105475)
Invested
$1,334.26
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$22.73
Record
93%
23157-1756 (24913)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$759.42
Value
$595.4
PnL
-$164.02
Record
64%
58129-32808 (90937)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$578.18
Value
$586.99
PnL
+$8.81
Record
55%
44682-37145 (81827)
Invested
$575.41
Value
$543.11
PnL
-$32.3
Record
54%
15461-12923 (28384)
Invested
$400
Value
—
PnL
-$400
Record
37%
142-243 (385)
Invested
$254
Value
$277.06
PnL
+$23.06
Record
56%
13719-10915 (24634)
Invested
$248.31
Value
$232.93
PnL
-$15.38
Record
60%
12150-8027 (20177)
Invested
$215.49
Value
$182.98
PnL
-$32.51
Record
58%
37728-26945 (64673)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$123.33
Value
$148.93
PnL
+$25.59
Record
55%
8583-7015 (15598)
Invested
$144.62
Value
—
PnL
-$144.62
Record
58%
50939-37072 (88011)
BoneOhioInvested
$136.38
Value
$152.03
PnL
+$15.65
Record
74%
102386-36369 (138755)
Invested
$130.9
Value
$142.1
PnL
+$11.2
Record
55%
7798-6445 (14243)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$104.9
Value
$130
PnL
+$25.1
Record
56%
12434-9581 (22015)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.06
Value
$90
PnL
-$8.06
Record
49%
5160-5320 (10480)
Invested
$60.82
Value
—
PnL
-$60.82
Record
57%
11944-8950 (20894)
Invested
$63.45
Value
$68.98
PnL
+$8.18
Record
55%
7362-6039 (13401)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$30.68
Value
—
PnL
-$30.68
Record
64%
39962-22836 (62798)
Invested
$46.64
Value
$67.6
PnL
+$20.96
Record
56%
57878-44713 (102591)
Invested
$27.5
Value
—
PnL
-$27.5
Record
34%
18719-35716 (54435)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
55%
23790-19221 (43011)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$24
Value
$49.48
PnL
+$25.48
Record
58%
12586-9256 (21842)
Invested
$23.04
Value
$24
PnL
+$0.96
Record
51%
17039-16590 (33629)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $7.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $3.6K
0x50f7
Down — $1.3K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $595.4
MayorMamdani
Down — $586.99
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $543.11
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $277.06
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $232.93