Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$473.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 28 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,203

Combined PnL+$503.51

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,071

Combined PnL-$977.09

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 79.9¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$213.98	66% 99072-51320 (150392)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$29.67	93% 23157-1756 (24913)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 39.4¢	$727.89	—	-$727.89	58% 37728-26945 (64673)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 93.8¢	$604.11	$603.13	-$0.98	64% 58129-32808 (90937)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 97.3¢	$664.32	$601.01	-$13.57	48% 23230-25485 (48715)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 94¢	$540.3	$574.56	+$34.26	55% 44682-37145 (81827)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69.1¢	$427.79	$467.34	+$39.55	54% 15461-12923 (28384)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 91.2¢	$281.65	$305.04	+$23.4	57% 7763-5950 (13713)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 85.4¢	$214.99	$250.08	+$35.09	60% 12150-8027 (20177)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 72.3¢	$235.46	$220	-$15.46	56% 13719-10915 (24634)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 85.7¢	$220.38	$215.02	-$5.36	55% 7798-6445 (14243)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 63.5¢	$136.39	$199.96	+$63.57	51% 17039-16590 (33629)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 68.8¢	$152.87	$134.43	-$18.44	55% 7362-6039 (13401)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 83.5¢	$128.34	$115.96	-$12.38	49% 5160-5320 (10480)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 8.7¢	$151.86	—	-$151.86	55% 8583-7015 (15598)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 89¢	$200.48	$225.26	+$24.78	58% 60398-44091 (104489)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$113.86	$92.88	-$20.98	59% 6693-4671 (11364)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$67.59	—	-$67.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$46.27	$92.88	+$46.61
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$108.77	$120.51	+$11.75	56% 12434-9581 (22015)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$84.07	$120.51	+$36.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$24.7	—	-$24.7
BoneOhio	Downavg 89.4¢	$134.31	$150.18	+$15.87	74% 102386-36369 (138755)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$49.43	—	-$49.43	57% 11944-8950 (20894)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 83¢	$108.87	$131.17	+$22.3	62% 43728-26734 (70462)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 20.4¢	$24	—	-$24	58% 12586-9256 (21842)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$54.74	$92	+$37.25	58% 50939-37072 (88011)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$42	$53.24	+$11.24	52% 90032-84524 (174556)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 80¢	$38.27	$47.28	+$9.01	56% 57878-44713 (102591)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,247.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$213.98

Record

66%

99072-51320 (150392)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,281.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.67

Record

93%

23157-1756 (24913)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$727.89

Value

—

PnL

-$727.89

Record

58%

37728-26945 (64673)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$604.11

Value

$603.13

PnL

-$0.98

Record

64%

58129-32808 (90937)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$664.32

Value

$601.01

PnL

-$13.57

Record

48%

23230-25485 (48715)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$540.3

Value

$574.56

PnL

+$34.26

Record

55%

44682-37145 (81827)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$427.79

Value

$467.34

PnL

+$39.55

Record

54%

15461-12923 (28384)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$281.65

Value

$305.04

PnL

+$23.4

Record

57%

7763-5950 (13713)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$214.99

Value

$250.08

PnL

+$35.09

Record

60%

12150-8027 (20177)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$235.46

Value

$220

PnL

-$15.46

Record

56%

13719-10915 (24634)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$220.38

Value

$215.02

PnL

-$5.36

Record

55%

7798-6445 (14243)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$136.39

Value

$199.96

PnL

+$63.57

Record

51%

17039-16590 (33629)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$152.87

Value

$134.43

PnL

-$18.44

Record

55%

7362-6039 (13401)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$128.34

Value

$115.96

PnL

-$12.38

Record

49%

5160-5320 (10480)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$151.86

Value

—

PnL

-$151.86

Record

55%

8583-7015 (15598)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$200.48

Value

$225.26

PnL

+$24.78

Record

58%

60398-44091 (104489)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$113.86

Value

$92.88

PnL

-$20.98

Record

59%

6693-4671 (11364)

Both legs:

Up$67.5953.2¢-$67.59

Down$46.2749.8¢+$46.61

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.77

Value

$120.51

PnL

+$11.75

Record

56%

12434-9581 (22015)

Both legs:

Down$84.0769.8¢+$36.44

Up$24.735.3¢-$24.7

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$134.31

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$15.87

Record

74%

102386-36369 (138755)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$49.43

Value

—

PnL

-$49.43

Record

57%

11944-8950 (20894)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$108.87

Value

$131.17

PnL

+$22.3

Record

62%

43728-26734 (70462)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

58%

12586-9256 (21842)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$54.74

Value

$92

PnL

+$37.25

Record

58%

50939-37072 (88011)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$42

Value

$53.24

PnL

+$11.24

Record

52%

90032-84524 (174556)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$38.27

Value

$47.28

PnL

+$9.01

Record

56%

57878-44713 (102591)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 28 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xadf3d9dc...15bd56

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793317500

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.5K

+$213.98

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$29.67

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$727.89

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $603.13

-$0.98

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $601.01

-$13.57

MayorMamdani

Down — $574.56

+$34.26

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $467.34

+$39.55

wzbbb

Down — $305.04

+$23.4

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $250.08

+$35.09

GoodFallen

Down — $220

-$15.46

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