Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$132.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 25 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,451

Combined PnL+$472.45

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,703

Combined PnL-$605.13

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35.01	74% 102386-36369 (138755)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.47	93% 23157-1756 (24913)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$679.85	$618.84	-$61.01	64% 58129-32808 (90937)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.1¢	$501.66	$618.84	+$117.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$178.2	—	-$178.2
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 40¢	$400	—	-$400	37% 142-243 (385)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$477.1	$603.19	+$126.09	54% 15461-12923 (28384)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$346.67	$603.19	+$256.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$130.43	—	-$130.43
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 68.4¢	$409.73	$518.46	+$108.73	66% 99072-51320 (150392)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.4¢	$354.84	$518.46	+$163.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$54.88	—	-$54.88
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$237.46	$174.1	-$63.36	58% 50939-37072 (88011)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$154.38	—	-$154.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$83.08	$174.1	+$91.02
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$164.38	$144.14	-$20.24	56% 13719-10915 (24634)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$89.36	—	-$89.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$75.02	$144.14	+$69.12
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$7.87	—	+$6.76	48% 23230-25485 (48715)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$151.62	$144.39	-$6.22	55% 7362-6039 (13401)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21¢	$30.94	—	-$30.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$119.63	$144.39	+$24.76
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$138.69	$118.33	-$20.35	49% 5160-5320 (10480)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$50.65	—	-$50.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$88.03	$118.33	+$30.3
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$102.05	$60	-$42.05	56% 12434-9581 (22015)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$59.75	—	-$59.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.5¢	$42.3	$60	+$17.7
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$148.44	$152.07	+$3.63	55% 7798-6445 (14243)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$114.33	$152.07	+$37.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$34.11	—	-$34.11
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.3¢	$219.8	$226	+$6.2	55% 44682-37145 (81827)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46¢	$102.58	$222.99	+$120.41	58% 37728-26945 (64673)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$133	$119.97	-$13.03	58% 60398-44091 (104489)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$93.75	$119.97	+$26.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$39.25	—	-$39.25
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 48.7¢	$86.68	$177.97	+$91.29	56% 57878-44713 (102591)
ohioism	Downavg 80.1¢	$135.43	$169.13	+$33.7	64% 39962-22836 (62798)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$63	—	-$63	57% 11944-8950 (20894)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$91.77	—	-$91.77	66% 112010-58363 (170373)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 39.3¢	$51.56	$131.3	+$79.74	60% 12150-8027 (20177)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95¢	$99.75	$105	+$5.25	57% 7763-5950 (13713)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$48.94	—	-$48.94	59% 6693-4671 (11364)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 15.4¢	$24.33	—	+$2.67	51% 19978-19143 (39121)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76¢	$39.69	$52.22	+$12.53	62% 43728-26734 (70462)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,465.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35.01

Record

74%

102386-36369 (138755)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,599.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.47

Record

93%

23157-1756 (24913)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$679.85

Value

$618.84

PnL

-$61.01

Record

64%

58129-32808 (90937)

Both legs:

Down$501.6681.1¢+$117.18

Up$178.234.1¢-$178.2

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$400

Value

—

PnL

-$400

Record

37%

142-243 (385)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$477.1

Value

$603.19

PnL

+$126.09

Record

54%

15461-12923 (28384)

Both legs:

Down$346.6757.5¢+$256.52

Up$130.4333.1¢-$130.43

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$409.73

Value

$518.46

PnL

+$108.73

Record

66%

99072-51320 (150392)

Both legs:

Down$354.8468.4¢+$163.62

Up$54.8825.7¢-$54.88

PBot-6ARB<$100

Invested

$237.46

Value

$174.1

PnL

-$63.36

Record

58%

50939-37072 (88011)

Both legs:

Up$154.3851.9¢-$154.38

Down$83.0847.7¢+$91.02

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$164.38

Value

$144.14

PnL

-$20.24

Record

56%

13719-10915 (24634)

Both legs:

Up$89.3643.8¢-$89.36

Down$75.0252¢+$69.12

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

—

PnL

+$6.76

Record

48%

23230-25485 (48715)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.62

Value

$144.39

PnL

-$6.22

Record

55%

7362-6039 (13401)

Both legs:

Up$30.9421¢-$30.98

Down$119.6382.9¢+$24.76

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.69

Value

$118.33

PnL

-$20.35

Record

49%

5160-5320 (10480)

Both legs:

Up$50.6542.9¢-$50.65

Down$88.0374.4¢+$30.3

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$102.05

Value

$60

PnL

-$42.05

Record

56%

12434-9581 (22015)

Both legs:

Invested

$148.44

Value

$152.07

PnL

+$3.63

Record

55%

7798-6445 (14243)

Both legs:

Down$114.3375.2¢+$37.74

Up$34.1141.8¢-$34.11

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$219.8

Value

$226

PnL

+$6.2

Record

55%

44682-37145 (81827)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$102.58

Value

$222.99

PnL

+$120.41

Record

58%

37728-26945 (64673)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133

Value

$119.97

PnL

-$13.03

Record

58%

60398-44091 (104489)

Both legs:

Down$93.7578.1¢+$26.22

Up$39.2561¢-$39.25

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$86.68

Value

$177.97

PnL

+$91.29

Record

56%

57878-44713 (102591)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$135.43

Value

$169.13

PnL

+$33.7

Record

64%

39962-22836 (62798)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$63

Value

—

PnL

-$63

Record

57%

11944-8950 (20894)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$91.77

Value

—

PnL

-$91.77

Record

66%

112010-58363 (170373)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$51.56

Value

$131.3

PnL

+$79.74

Record

60%

12150-8027 (20177)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$99.75

Value

$105

PnL

+$5.25

Record

57%

7763-5950 (13713)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$48.94

Value

—

PnL

-$48.94

Record

59%

6693-4671 (11364)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$24.33

Value

—

PnL

+$2.67

Record

51%

19978-19143 (39121)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$39.69

Value

$52.22

PnL

+$12.53

Record

62%

43728-26734 (70462)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 25 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf89a04ec...19d821

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793317200

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.5K

+$35.01

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

+$6.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.22

Trade on Polymarket