Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 88%
4 arb excluded
$2.9K
$91.99
Smart Money Signal
16 of 18 top traders (89%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $612.61 | $618.8 | +$6.19 | 93% 23128-1756 (24884) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88.5¢ | $468.86 | $404.75 | -$64.12 | 64% 58097-32792 (90889) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 76.6¢ | $391 | $400.66 | +$9.66 | 54% 15452-12914 (28366) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 95¢ | $361.64 | $350 | -$11.64 | 57% 7754-5942 (13696) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $122.12 | $126.44 | +$4.31 | 55% 7794-6444 (14238) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $126.61 | $122.47 | -$4.14 | 59% 6685-4661 (11346) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $65.29 | — | -$65.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $61.32 | $122.47 | +$61.15 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 87.7¢ | $96.06 | $105.5 | +$9.44 | 60% 12140-8017 (20157) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 48¢ | $100.91 | $210.21 | +$109.3 | 58% 37705-26921 (64626) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 94.1¢ | $97.55 | $103.66 | +$6.11 | 55% 8574-7005 (15579) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $100.36 | $94 | -$6.36 | 56% 13708-10907 (24615) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72¢ | $67.66 | $94 | +$26.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.6¢ | $32.7 | — | -$32.7 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $105.89 | $103.61 | -$2.27 | 49% 5150-5310 (10460) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78¢ | $80.85 | $103.61 | +$22.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.9¢ | $25.04 | — | -$25.04 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $85.68 | $104.53 | +$18.85 | 66% 99051-51306 (150357) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.6¢ | $60.24 | $104.53 | +$44.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $25.45 | — | -$25.45 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $48.51 | $63.51 | +$15 | 55% 23790-19221 (43011) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $24.43 | $33.13 | +$8.7 | 56% 12425-9572 (21997) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $14.4 | — | -$14.4 | 51% 19969-19125 (39094) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $13.56 | $15 | +$1.44 | 55% 7353-6028 (13381) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $12 | $25.01 | +$13.01 | 58% 50929-37060 (87989) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $14.5 | $15.43 | +$0.93 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $10 | +$2.6 | 40% 448-678 (1126) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 23215-25459 (48674) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $4.95 | $6.41 | +$1.46 | 66% 111990-58338 (170328) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3639-2825 (6464) |
Invested
$612.61
Value
$618.8
PnL
+$6.19
Record
93%
23128-1756 (24884)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$468.86
Value
$404.75
PnL
-$64.12
Record
64%
58097-32792 (90889)
Invested
$391
Value
$400.66
PnL
+$9.66
Record
54%
15452-12914 (28366)
Invested
$361.64
Value
$350
PnL
-$11.64
Record
57%
7754-5942 (13696)
Invested
$122.12
Value
$126.44
PnL
+$4.31
Record
55%
7794-6444 (14238)
Invested
$126.61
Value
$122.47
PnL
-$4.14
Record
59%
6685-4661 (11346)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.06
Value
$105.5
PnL
+$9.44
Record
60%
12140-8017 (20157)
Invested
$100.91
Value
$210.21
PnL
+$109.3
Record
58%
37705-26921 (64626)
machinelearnedInvested
$97.55
Value
$103.66
PnL
+$6.11
Record
55%
8574-7005 (15579)
Invested
$100.36
Value
$94
PnL
-$6.36
Record
56%
13708-10907 (24615)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.89
Value
$103.61
PnL
-$2.27
Record
49%
5150-5310 (10460)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.68
Value
$104.53
PnL
+$18.85
Record
66%
99051-51306 (150357)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.51
Value
$63.51
PnL
+$15
Record
55%
23790-19221 (43011)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$24.43
Value
$33.13
PnL
+$8.7
Record
56%
12425-9572 (21997)
Invested
$14.4
Value
—
PnL
-$14.4
Record
51%
19969-19125 (39094)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.44
Record
55%
7353-6028 (13381)
Invested
$12
Value
$25.01
PnL
+$13.01
Record
58%
50929-37060 (87989)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$15.43
PnL
+$0.93
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.6
Record
40%
448-678 (1126)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
23215-25459 (48674)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$1.46
Record
66%
111990-58338 (170328)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3639-2825 (6464)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $618.8
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $404.75
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $400.66
wzbbb
Down — $350
sfkjbsr457
Down — $126.44
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $105.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $210.21
machinelearned
Down — $103.66
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded