Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$760.23

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,683

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,312

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.08	56% 29329-23030 (52359)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.14	93% 23128-1756 (24884)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 58.7¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	54% 15452-12914 (28366)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 47.3¢	$420.95	$748.26	+$327.31	56% 12425-9572 (21997)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 45.6¢	$418.93	$597.94	+$179.01	56% 13708-10907 (24615)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 63¢	$429.95	$551.59	+$121.64	58% 37705-26921 (64626)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 66.8¢	$618.18	$534.54	-$24.24	64% 58097-32792 (90889)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 57.6¢	$506.86	—	-$506.86	66% 99051-51306 (150357)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 63.4¢	$410.79	$392.34	-$18.46	49% 5150-5310 (10460)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 63.9¢	$230.01	$213.99	-$16.01	57% 11936-8938 (20874)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.4¢	$220.48	$193.45	-$23.23	60% 12140-8017 (20157)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 68.6¢	$165.04	$156.54	-$8.49	55% 7794-6444 (14238)
NIULAI4	Upavg 96.6¢	$150.72	$156.07	+$5.35	77% 9356-2799 (12155)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$174.3	$221.78	+$47.48	55% 7353-6028 (13381)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.7¢	$89.04	—	-$89.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$85.26	$221.78	+$136.52
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 40¢	$119.57	—	-$119.57	66% 111990-58338 (170328)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 95.5¢	$172.32	$120.78	-$51.54	51% 17029-16582 (33611)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$89.49	—	-$89.49	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$70.58	—	-$70.58	58% 50929-37060 (87989)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 97¢	$83.39	$69	-$14.39	55% 44647-37116 (81763)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$64.78	—	-$64.78	59% 6685-4661 (11346)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$59.89	$57.38	+$27.14	64% 22669-12483 (35152)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 57.7¢	$149.75	—	-$149.75	55% 8574-7005 (15579)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 22¢	$23.73	$107.87	+$84.14	48% 23215-25459 (48674)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 21¢	$41.58	$198	+$156.42	51% 714-686 (1400)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 36¢	$8.63	$23.95	+$15.32	57% 7754-5942 (13696)

THG.

Invested

$3,175.92

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.08

Record

56%

29329-23030 (52359)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,304.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.14

Record

93%

23128-1756 (24884)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,041.49

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

15452-12914 (28366)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$420.95

Value

$748.26

PnL

+$327.31

Record

56%

12425-9572 (21997)

GoodFallen

Invested

$418.93

Value

$597.94

PnL

+$179.01

Record

56%

13708-10907 (24615)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$429.95

Value

$551.59

PnL

+$121.64

Record

58%

37705-26921 (64626)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$618.18

Value

$534.54

PnL

-$24.24

Record

64%

58097-32792 (90889)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$506.86

Value

—

PnL

-$506.86

Record

66%

99051-51306 (150357)

ply-pm0

Invested

$410.79

Value

$392.34

PnL

-$18.46

Record

49%

5150-5310 (10460)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$230.01

Value

$213.99

PnL

-$16.01

Record

57%

11936-8938 (20874)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$220.48

Value

$193.45

PnL

-$23.23

Record

60%

12140-8017 (20157)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$165.04

Value

$156.54

PnL

-$8.49

Record

55%

7794-6444 (14238)

NIULAI4

Invested

$150.72

Value

$156.07

PnL

+$5.35

Record

77%

9356-2799 (12155)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.3

Value

$221.78

PnL

+$47.48

Record

55%

7353-6028 (13381)

Both legs:

Down$89.0476.7¢-$89.04

Up$85.2638.4¢+$136.52

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$119.57

Value

—

PnL

-$119.57

Record

66%

111990-58338 (170328)

gansinimen

Invested

$172.32

Value

$120.78

PnL

-$51.54

Record

51%

17029-16582 (33611)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.49

Value

—

PnL

-$89.49

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.58

Value

—

PnL

-$70.58

Record

58%

50929-37060 (87989)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$83.39

Value

$69

PnL

-$14.39

Record

55%

44647-37116 (81763)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.78

Value

—

PnL

-$64.78

Record

59%

6685-4661 (11346)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$59.89

Value

$57.38

PnL

+$27.14

Record

64%

22669-12483 (35152)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$149.75

Value

—

PnL

-$149.75

Record

55%

8574-7005 (15579)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$23.73

Value

$107.87

PnL

+$84.14

Record

48%

23215-25459 (48674)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$41.58

Value

$198

PnL

+$156.42

Record

51%

714-686 (1400)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$23.95

PnL

+$15.32

Record

57%

7754-5942 (13696)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x56619e9d...e5b266

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793316600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$32.08

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$26.14

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.0K

FairValueMachine

Up — $748.26

+$327.31

GoodFallen

Up — $597.94

+$179.01

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $551.59

+$121.64

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $534.54

-$24.24

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

-$506.86

ply-pm0

Up — $392.34

-$18.46

EZTRADENL2

Up — $213.99

-$16.01

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