Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$22.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 30 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,717

Combined PnL+$380.15

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,496

Combined PnL-$357.88

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.05	56% 29329-23030 (52359)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 56.2¢	$806.71	$979.54	+$172.83	54% 15452-12914 (28366)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$676.17	$683	+$6.83	93% 23128-1756 (24884)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 62.9¢	$320.96	$377.43	+$56.47	66% 99051-51306 (150357)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.3¢	$318.19	$338.11	+$19.92	56% 13708-10907 (24615)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$327.41	$239.98	-$87.43	64% 58097-32792 (90889)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$92.09	$239.98	+$147.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$235.32	—	-$235.32
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.9¢	$239.26	$265.85	+$26.59	55% 7353-6028 (13381)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58¢	$186.21	$190.38	+$4.17	49% 5150-5310 (10460)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 46¢	$200	—	-$200	36% 131-234 (365)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$189.88	$127.13	-$62.75	59% 6685-4661 (11346)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$138.24	—	-$138.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$51.64	$127.13	+$75.49
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 78.5¢	$158.89	$150.48	-$8.41	55% 7794-6444 (14238)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$135.34	$131	-$4.34	58% 37705-26921 (64626)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$139.68	$88	-$51.68	60% 12140-8017 (20157)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$74.8	$88	+$13.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$64.88	—	-$64.88
FairValueMachine	Downavg 54.6¢	$76.82	$105	+$28.18	56% 12425-9572 (21997)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$61.77	$57.35	-$4.42	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 65.3¢	$109.3	—	-$109.3	57% 11936-8938 (20874)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$62.92	$40	-$20.72	64% 22669-12483 (35152)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 40¢	$30	$75	+$45	34% 18702-35698 (54400)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$28.52	$32.54	+$4.02	66% 111990-58338 (170328)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$20.72	$25.33	+$4.61	55% 8574-7005 (15579)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 89¢	$26.7	$30	+$3.3	58% 60375-44067 (104442)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8.5¢	$19.8	—	+$22.5	51% 19969-19125 (39094)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$40	—	-$40	58% 12579-9242 (21821)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$12.01	$25.03	+$13.02	58% 50929-37060 (87989)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2941-1049 (3990)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,172.95

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.05

Record

56%

29329-23030 (52359)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$806.71

Value

$979.54

PnL

+$172.83

Record

54%

15452-12914 (28366)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$676.17

Value

$683

PnL

+$6.83

Record

93%

23128-1756 (24884)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$320.96

Value

$377.43

PnL

+$56.47

Record

66%

99051-51306 (150357)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$318.19

Value

$338.11

PnL

+$19.92

Record

56%

13708-10907 (24615)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$327.41

Value

$239.98

PnL

-$87.43

Record

64%

58097-32792 (90889)

Both legs:

Down$92.0938.4¢+$147.88

Up$235.3247.4¢-$235.32

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$239.26

Value

$265.85

PnL

+$26.59

Record

55%

7353-6028 (13381)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$186.21

Value

$190.38

PnL

+$4.17

Record

49%

5150-5310 (10460)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

-$200

Record

36%

131-234 (365)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$189.88

Value

$127.13

PnL

-$62.75

Record

59%

6685-4661 (11346)

Both legs:

Up$138.2459.3¢-$138.24

Down$51.6440.6¢+$75.49

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$158.89

Value

$150.48

PnL

-$8.41

Record

55%

7794-6444 (14238)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$135.34

Value

$131

PnL

-$4.34

Record

58%

37705-26921 (64626)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.68

Value

$88

PnL

-$51.68

Record

60%

12140-8017 (20157)

Both legs:

Invested

$76.82

Value

$105

PnL

+$28.18

Record

56%

12425-9572 (21997)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$61.77

Value

$57.35

PnL

-$4.42

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$109.3

Value

—

PnL

-$109.3

Record

57%

11936-8938 (20874)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$62.92

Value

$40

PnL

-$20.72

Record

64%

22669-12483 (35152)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

$75

PnL

+$45

Record

34%

18702-35698 (54400)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$28.52

Value

$32.54

PnL

+$4.02

Record

66%

111990-58338 (170328)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$20.72

Value

$25.33

PnL

+$4.61

Record

55%

8574-7005 (15579)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$26.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.3

Record

58%

60375-44067 (104442)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

—

PnL

+$22.5

Record

51%

19969-19125 (39094)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$40

Value

—

PnL

-$40

Record

58%

12579-9242 (21821)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$12.01

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$13.02

Record

58%

50929-37060 (87989)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2941-1049 (3990)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 30 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc7190f20...396e8c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793316300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$32.05

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $979.54

+$172.83

hoodquant

Down — $683

+$6.83

Bonereaper

Down — $377.43

+$56.47

GoodFallen

Down — $338.11

+$19.92

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$87.43

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $265.85

+$26.59

ply-pm0

Down — $190.38

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded