Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$7.0K
$297.33
Smart Money Signal
18 of 23 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.01 | 74% 102371-36367 (138738) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.93 | 93% 23128-1756 (24884) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 60.6¢ | $720.4 | $907.45 | +$187.06 | 54% 15452-12914 (28366) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 58.9¢ | $265.94 | $383 | +$117.06 | 56% 13708-10907 (24615) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 83.3¢ | $320.61 | $254.21 | -$66.4 | 64% 58097-32792 (90889) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $247.71 | $173 | -$74.71 | 66% 99051-51306 (150357) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $132.88 | — | -$132.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.4¢ | $114.83 | $173 | +$58.17 | |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 46.1¢ | $124.49 | — | -$124.49 | 58% 50929-37060 (87989) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 61.6¢ | $104.29 | $133.96 | +$29.68 | 55% 7353-6028 (13381) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $115.18 | $129 | +$13.82 | 49% 5150-5310 (10460) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $126.55 | $125.49 | -$1.06 | 55% 7794-6444 (14238) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 59.9¢ | $110.12 | $153.39 | +$43.27 | 56% 12425-9572 (21997) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 97.8¢ | $111.56 | $114.07 | +$2.51 | 55% 44647-37116 (81763) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $57.61 | $46.82 | -$10.79 | 55% 8574-7005 (15579) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 52¢ | $63.49 | $122.01 | +$58.53 | 57% 11936-8938 (20874) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $56.46 | $59.22 | +$2.77 | 59% 6685-4661 (11346) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $32.67 | $59.22 | +$26.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $23.79 | — | -$23.79 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $36.7 | $69.44 | +$32.75 | 55% 23790-19221 (43011) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $27.34 | $26.11 | -$0.39 | 61% 94573-59553 (154126) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.2¢ | $40.64 | — | -$36.79 | 60% 12140-8017 (20157) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $12.91 | $13.45 | +$0.54 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $12.56 | $25.12 | +$12.56 | 58% 37705-26921 (64626) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $5.4 | — | -$5.4 | 51% 19969-19125 (39094) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $4.91 | $8.62 | +$3.71 | 66% 111990-58338 (170328) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 52% 89996-84488 (174484) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 448-678 (1126) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3639-2825 (6464) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970.89
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
74%
102371-36367 (138738)
Invested
$1,280.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.93
Record
93%
23128-1756 (24884)
Invested
$720.4
Value
$907.45
PnL
+$187.06
Record
54%
15452-12914 (28366)
Invested
$265.94
Value
$383
PnL
+$117.06
Record
56%
13708-10907 (24615)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$320.61
Value
$254.21
PnL
-$66.4
Record
64%
58097-32792 (90889)
Invested
$247.71
Value
$173
PnL
-$74.71
Record
66%
99051-51306 (150357)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.49
Value
—
PnL
-$124.49
Record
58%
50929-37060 (87989)
Invested
$104.29
Value
$133.96
PnL
+$29.68
Record
55%
7353-6028 (13381)
Invested
$115.18
Value
$129
PnL
+$13.82
Record
49%
5150-5310 (10460)
Invested
$126.55
Value
$125.49
PnL
-$1.06
Record
55%
7794-6444 (14238)
FairValueMachineInvested
$110.12
Value
$153.39
PnL
+$43.27
Record
56%
12425-9572 (21997)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$111.56
Value
$114.07
PnL
+$2.51
Record
55%
44647-37116 (81763)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$57.61
Value
$46.82
PnL
-$10.79
Record
55%
8574-7005 (15579)
Invested
$63.49
Value
$122.01
PnL
+$58.53
Record
57%
11936-8938 (20874)
Invested
$56.46
Value
$59.22
PnL
+$2.77
Record
59%
6685-4661 (11346)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.7
Value
$69.44
PnL
+$32.75
Record
55%
23790-19221 (43011)
Invested
$27.34
Value
$26.11
PnL
-$0.39
Record
61%
94573-59553 (154126)
Invested
$40.64
Value
—
PnL
-$36.79
Record
60%
12140-8017 (20157)
Invested
$12.91
Value
$13.45
PnL
+$0.54
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
Invested
$12.56
Value
$25.12
PnL
+$12.56
Record
58%
37705-26921 (64626)
Invested
$5.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.4
Record
51%
19969-19125 (39094)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$3.71
Record
66%
111990-58338 (170328)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
52%
89996-84488 (174484)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
448-678 (1126)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3639-2825 (6464)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $907.45
GoodFallen
Down — $383
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $254.21
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $133.96
ply-pm0
Down — $129
sfkjbsr457
Down — $125.49