Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$328.76

Smart Money Signal

13 of 20 top traders (65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL+$426.53

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$97.76

Up — 65%Down — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 64¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$102.3	54% 15452-12914 (28366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$988.88	$1.5K	+$556.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$453.86	—	-$453.86
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$87.92	56% 13708-10907 (24615)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 62.9¢	$493.7	$659.07	+$165.38	56% 12425-9572 (21997)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$545.41	$479.05	-$66.36	66% 99051-51306 (150357)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$331.57	$479.05	+$147.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.1¢	$213.84	—	-$213.84
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$445.94	$491.02	+$45.08	64% 58097-32792 (90889)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$280.2	$491.02	+$210.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$165.74	—	-$165.74
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$441.16	$425.34	-$15.82	49% 5150-5310 (10460)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.8¢	$335.02	$425.34	+$90.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$106.14	—	-$106.14
NIULAI4	Upavg 87.7¢	$394.66	$438.03	+$43.36	77% 9356-2799 (12155)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 79.1¢	$337.5	$311.32	-$26.19	57% 11936-8938 (20874)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$134.8	$195.3	+$60.5	55% 8574-7005 (15579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$106.5	$195.3	+$88.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.8¢	$28.3	—	-$28.3
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$169.2	$145.18	-$24.03	55% 7353-6028 (13381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.4¢	$99.29	$145.18	+$45.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$69.91	—	-$69.91
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 55.4¢	$83.39	$119.66	+$37.06	60% 12140-8017 (20157)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$103.11	$102.51	-$0.6	55% 7794-6444 (14238)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$75.03	$102.51	+$27.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$28.08	—	-$28.08
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$79.69	$84.76	+$5.07	58% 60375-44067 (104442)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$42.63	$84.76	+$42.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$37.06	—	-$37.06
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 78¢	$67.38	$86.38	+$19	56% 57846-44687 (102533)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 42¢	$54.6	$130	+$75.4	58% 37705-26921 (64626)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 73¢	$49.59	$54.3	+$8.58	64% 22669-12483 (35152)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$45.97	—	-$45.97	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$27.14	$25.47	-$1.67	63% 51691-30414 (82105)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 77¢	$25.43	$25.6	+$0.17	57% 7754-5942 (13696)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$17.71	—	-$17.71	66% 111990-58338 (170328)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 45¢	$14.32	$31.83	+$17.51	64% 39932-22817 (62749)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17.1¢	$8.96	—	-$8.96	52% 89996-84488 (174484)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 20.7¢	$11.8	—	-$11.8	12% 18256-132961 (151217)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$5.48	—	-$5.48	61% 94573-59553 (154126)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$7.84	—	-$7.84	59% 6685-4661 (11346)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,442.73

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$102.3

Record

54%

15452-12914 (28366)

Both legs:

Up$988.8864¢+$556.16

Down$453.8635.6¢-$453.86

GoodFallen

Invested

$1,001.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$87.92

Record

56%

13708-10907 (24615)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$493.7

Value

$659.07

PnL

+$165.38

Record

56%

12425-9572 (21997)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$545.41

Value

$479.05

PnL

-$66.36

Record

66%

99051-51306 (150357)

Both legs:

Up$331.5769.2¢+$147.48

Down$213.8429.1¢-$213.84

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$445.94

Value

$491.02

PnL

+$45.08

Record

64%

58097-32792 (90889)

Both legs:

Up$280.257.1¢+$210.82

Down$165.7425.4¢-$165.74

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$441.16

Value

$425.34

PnL

-$15.82

Record

49%

5150-5310 (10460)

Both legs:

Up$335.0278.8¢+$90.32

Down$106.1425.5¢-$106.14

NIULAI4

Invested

$394.66

Value

$438.03

PnL

+$43.36

Record

77%

9356-2799 (12155)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$337.5

Value

$311.32

PnL

-$26.19

Record

57%

11936-8938 (20874)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$134.8

Value

$195.3

PnL

+$60.5

Record

55%

8574-7005 (15579)

Both legs:

Up$106.554.5¢+$88.8

Down$28.310.8¢-$28.3

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$169.2

Value

$145.18

PnL

-$24.03

Record

55%

7353-6028 (13381)

Both legs:

Up$99.2968.4¢+$45.89

Down$69.9132.2¢-$69.91

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$83.39

Value

$119.66

PnL

+$37.06

Record

60%

12140-8017 (20157)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$103.11

Value

$102.51

PnL

-$0.6

Record

55%

7794-6444 (14238)

Both legs:

Up$75.0373.2¢+$27.48

Down$28.0830.9¢-$28.08

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$79.69

Value

$84.76

PnL

+$5.07

Record

58%

60375-44067 (104442)

Both legs:

Up$42.6350.3¢+$42.13

Down$37.0636¢-$37.06

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$67.38

Value

$86.38

PnL

+$19

Record

56%

57846-44687 (102533)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$54.6

Value

$130

PnL

+$75.4

Record

58%

37705-26921 (64626)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$49.59

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$8.58

Record

64%

22669-12483 (35152)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.97

Value

—

PnL

-$45.97

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$27.14

Value

$25.47

PnL

-$1.67

Record

63%

51691-30414 (82105)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$25.43

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

7754-5942 (13696)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.71

Value

—

PnL

-$17.71

Record

66%

111990-58338 (170328)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$14.32

Value

$31.83

PnL

+$17.51

Record

64%

39932-22817 (62749)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.96

Value

—

PnL

-$8.96

Record

52%

89996-84488 (174484)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.8

Value

—

PnL

-$11.8

Record

12%

18256-132961 (151217)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.48

Value

—

PnL

-$5.48

Record

61%

94573-59553 (154126)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.84

Value

—

PnL

-$7.84

Record

59%

6685-4661 (11346)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 20 top traders (65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8bcfadf0...eec74e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793315700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$102.3

GoodFallen

Up — $1.1K

+$87.92

FairValueMachine

Up — $659.07

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $438.03

+$43.36

EZTRADENL2

Up — $311.32

-$26.19

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$60.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$24.03

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