Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL+$137.15

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,994

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.59	93% 23128-1756 (24884)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.8¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	58% 37705-26921 (64626)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$173.52	54% 15452-12914 (28366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$722.67	$1.2K	+$493.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$319.55	—	-$319.55
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 45.2¢	$800	—	-$800	36% 131-234 (365)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$414.6	$383.95	-$30.65	66% 99051-51306 (150357)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$170.21	—	-$170.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$244.39	$383.95	+$139.56
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$340.08	$386.48	+$46.4	56% 13708-10907 (24615)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$223.59	$386.48	+$162.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$116.49	—	-$116.49
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$273.06	$247.97	-$25.09	64% 58097-32792 (90889)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$107.63	—	-$107.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$165.43	$247.97	+$82.54
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$230.37	$242.44	+$12.07	56% 12425-9572 (21997)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$151.73	$242.44	+$90.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$78.64	—	-$78.64
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$191.64	$182.31	-$9.33	51% 17029-16582 (33611)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$68	—	-$68
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.8¢	$123.64	$182.31	+$58.67
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$202.83	$237.79	+$37.11	60% 12140-8017 (20157)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.8¢	$173.16	$237.79	+$64.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$27.84	—	-$27.52
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$139.79	—	-$139.79	58% 50929-37060 (87989)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$136.52	$137.76	+$1.24	49% 5150-5310 (10460)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$59.42	—	-$59.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$77.1	$137.76	+$60.66
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 92.7¢	$89.12	$91.77	+$2.65	52% 89996-84488 (174484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.3¢	$4.09	—	-$4.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.7¢	$85.03	$91.77	+$6.74
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3.6	—	+$27.9	51% 19969-19125 (39094)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$123.58	$124.83	+$1.25	56% 29329-23030 (52359)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$31.21	$35.09	+$3.88	61% 94573-59553 (154126)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$106.91	$102.41	-$4.5	55% 7794-6444 (14238)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$65.96	$102.41	+$36.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$40.95	—	-$40.95
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 36.5¢	$78.65	—	-$78.65	55% 7353-6028 (13381)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$78.8	—	-$78.8	57% 11936-8938 (20874)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 55.5¢	$93.05	$158.76	+$65.71	66% 111990-58338 (170328)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$80.46	$92.79	+$12.33	59% 6685-4661 (11346)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$45.33	$92.79	+$47.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$35.13	—	-$35.13
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$46.65	$60.24	+$13.59	57% 7754-5942 (13696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$30.12	$60.24	+$30.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$16.53	—	-$16.53
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$60	—	-$60	58% 12579-9242 (21821)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$65.44	$92.87	+$27.43	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 71¢	$59.34	$79.84	+$20.5	64% 39932-22817 (62749)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,306.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.59

Record

93%

23128-1756 (24884)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$1,006.55

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

37705-26921 (64626)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,042.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$173.52

Record

54%

15452-12914 (28366)

Both legs:

Down$722.6759.4¢+$493.06

Up$319.5541.2¢-$319.55

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$800

Value

—

PnL

-$800

Record

36%

131-234 (365)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$414.6

Value

$383.95

PnL

-$30.65

Record

66%

99051-51306 (150357)

Both legs:

Up$170.2141.3¢-$170.21

Down$244.3963.7¢+$139.56

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.08

Value

$386.48

PnL

+$46.4

Record

56%

13708-10907 (24615)

Both legs:

Down$223.5957.9¢+$162.89

Up$116.4945.5¢-$116.49

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$273.06

Value

$247.97

PnL

-$25.09

Record

64%

58097-32792 (90889)

Both legs:

Up$107.6340.2¢-$107.63

Down$165.4366.7¢+$82.54

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$230.37

Value

$242.44

PnL

+$12.07

Record

56%

12425-9572 (21997)

Both legs:

Down$151.7362.6¢+$90.71

Up$78.6441.8¢-$78.64

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.64

Value

$182.31

PnL

-$9.33

Record

51%

17029-16582 (33611)

Both legs:

Up$6834¢-$68

Down$123.6467.8¢+$58.67

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$202.83

Value

$237.79

PnL

+$37.11

Record

60%

12140-8017 (20157)

Both legs:

Down$173.1672.8¢+$64.64

Up$27.8436.6¢-$27.52

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$139.79

Value

—

PnL

-$139.79

Record

58%

50929-37060 (87989)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.52

Value

$137.76

PnL

+$1.24

Record

49%

5150-5310 (10460)

Both legs:

Invested

$89.12

Value

$91.77

PnL

+$2.65

Record

52%

89996-84488 (174484)

Both legs:

Up$4.092.3¢-$4.09

Down$85.0392.7¢+$6.74

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

+$27.9

Record

51%

19969-19125 (39094)

THG.

Down

Invested

$123.58

Value

$124.83

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

29329-23030 (52359)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.21

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$3.88

Record

61%

94573-59553 (154126)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$106.91

Value

$102.41

PnL

-$4.5

Record

55%

7794-6444 (14238)

Both legs:

Down$65.9664.4¢+$36.45

Up$40.9545.5¢-$40.95

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$78.65

Value

—

PnL

-$78.65

Record

55%

7353-6028 (13381)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$78.8

Value

—

PnL

-$78.8

Record

57%

11936-8938 (20874)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$93.05

Value

$158.76

PnL

+$65.71

Record

66%

111990-58338 (170328)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$80.46

Value

$92.79

PnL

+$12.33

Record

59%

6685-4661 (11346)

Both legs:

Down$45.3348.9¢+$47.46

Up$35.1348.6¢-$35.13

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$46.65

Value

$60.24

PnL

+$13.59

Record

57%

7754-5942 (13696)

Both legs:

Down$30.1250¢+$30.12

Up$16.5332.4¢-$16.53

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$60

Value

—

PnL

-$60

Record

58%

12579-9242 (21821)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$65.44

Value

$92.87

PnL

+$27.43

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$59.34

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$20.5

Record

64%

39932-22817 (62749)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x19cde124...507ed2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793315100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$14.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.0K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$37.11

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