Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 77%
2 arb excluded
$3.6K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 27 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-7.5K | 56% 3639-2825 (6464) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 37.5¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 36% 131-234 (365) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.1¢ | $951.23 | $989.5 | +$38.27 | 93% 23128-1756 (24884) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 67.1¢ | $389.7 | $416.77 | +$27.06 | 54% 15452-12914 (28366) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 90.6¢ | $406.26 | $360 | -$46.26 | 64% 58097-32792 (90889) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.8¢ | $345.03 | $294.55 | -$50.48 | 66% 99051-51306 (150357) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 77.7¢ | $143.05 | $177.25 | +$34.2 | 55% 8574-7005 (15579) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.4¢ | $140.6 | $182.63 | +$42.03 | 56% 13708-10907 (24615) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 87¢ | $145.49 | $167.22 | +$21.74 | 57% 7754-5942 (13696) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $119.04 | $123.44 | +$4.4 | 55% 7794-6444 (14238) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 88.9¢ | $104.96 | $118 | +$13.04 | 55% 44647-37116 (81763) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 62.7¢ | $93.35 | $100.82 | +$7.47 | 60% 12140-8017 (20157) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84¢ | $85 | $100 | +$15 | 51% 17029-16582 (33611) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $94.63 | $99.14 | +$4.51 | 49% 5150-5310 (10460) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $79.41 | $61.43 | -$17.98 | 59% 6685-4661 (11346) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $48.71 | — | -$48.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $30.7 | $61.43 | +$30.74 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 75¢ | $75.03 | $100.04 | +$25.01 | 56% 57846-44687 (102533) |
SI sir-upalotARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $58.75 | $50 | -$8.75 | 55% 23790-19221 (43011) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.8¢ | $27.25 | — | -$27.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $50 | +$18.5 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $56.89 | — | -$56.89 | 58% 37705-26921 (64626) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $54.34 | $54 | -$0.32 | 61% 94573-59553 (154126) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 55.1¢ | $32.39 | $58.82 | +$26.43 | 56% 12425-9572 (21997) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $22.49 | $29.91 | +$7.42 | 64% 22669-12483 (35152) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $33.16 | $33.53 | +$0.37 | 55% 7353-6028 (13381) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $12.51 | — | -$12.51 | 58% 50929-37060 (87989) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $20 | +$8.2 | 57% 11936-8938 (20874) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $11.3 | $20 | +$8.7 | 12% 18256-132961 (151217) |
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
56%
3639-2825 (6464)
Invested
$1,200
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
36%
131-234 (365)
Invested
$951.23
Value
$989.5
PnL
+$38.27
Record
93%
23128-1756 (24884)
Invested
$389.7
Value
$416.77
PnL
+$27.06
Record
54%
15452-12914 (28366)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$406.26
Value
$360
PnL
-$46.26
Record
64%
58097-32792 (90889)
Invested
$345.03
Value
$294.55
PnL
-$50.48
Record
66%
99051-51306 (150357)
machinelearnedInvested
$143.05
Value
$177.25
PnL
+$34.2
Record
55%
8574-7005 (15579)
Invested
$140.6
Value
$182.63
PnL
+$42.03
Record
56%
13708-10907 (24615)
Invested
$145.49
Value
$167.22
PnL
+$21.74
Record
57%
7754-5942 (13696)
Invested
$119.04
Value
$123.44
PnL
+$4.4
Record
55%
7794-6444 (14238)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$104.96
Value
$118
PnL
+$13.04
Record
55%
44647-37116 (81763)
Invested
$93.35
Value
$100.82
PnL
+$7.47
Record
60%
12140-8017 (20157)
Invested
$85
Value
$100
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
17029-16582 (33611)
Invested
$94.63
Value
$99.14
PnL
+$4.51
Record
49%
5150-5310 (10460)
Invested
$79.41
Value
$61.43
PnL
-$17.98
Record
59%
6685-4661 (11346)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.03
Value
$100.04
PnL
+$25.01
Record
56%
57846-44687 (102533)
Invested
$58.75
Value
$50
PnL
-$8.75
Record
55%
23790-19221 (43011)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.89
Value
—
PnL
-$56.89
Record
58%
37705-26921 (64626)
Invested
$54.34
Value
$54
PnL
-$0.32
Record
61%
94573-59553 (154126)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$32.39
Value
$58.82
PnL
+$26.43
Record
56%
12425-9572 (21997)
Invested
$22.49
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$7.42
Record
64%
22669-12483 (35152)
Invested
$33.16
Value
$33.53
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
7353-6028 (13381)
Invested
$12.51
Value
—
PnL
-$12.51
Record
58%
50929-37060 (87989)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.2
Record
57%
11936-8938 (20874)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.7
Record
12%
18256-132961 (151217)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $989.5
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $416.77
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $360
Bonereaper
Down — $294.55
machinelearned
Down — $177.25
GoodFallen
Down — $182.63
wzbbb
Down — $167.22
sfkjbsr457
Down — $123.44