Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,085

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,181

Combined PnL-$565.3

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$20.76	93% 23125-1755 (24880)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$667.79	$731.63	+$63.84	66% 98941-51224 (150165)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$453.58	$731.63	+$278.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$214.21	—	-$214.21
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 19.6¢	$197.38	$307.66	+$110.28	46% 38107-44997 (83104)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.6¢	$131.21	—	-$131.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.5¢	$66.17	$307.66	+$241.49
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$425.59	$420.55	-$5.04	49% 5150-5307 (10457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$192.23	$420.55	+$228.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$233.36	—	-$233.36
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$347.37	$343.1	-$4.27	54% 15450-12912 (28362)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$153.99	$343.1	+$189.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$193.38	—	-$193.38
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.3¢	$347.54	$337.25	+$19.41	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 96.3¢	$263.73	$273.95	+$10.22	55% 44643-37114 (81757)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 58.7¢	$287.77	—	-$287.77	55% 8574-7000 (15574)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$177.6	$189.87	+$12.27	56% 13706-10905 (24611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$78.02	$189.87	+$111.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.3¢	$99.58	—	-$99.58
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$261.22	$200	-$61.22	51% 17029-16577 (33606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$168	$200	+$32
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.7¢	$93.22	—	-$93.22
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 68.4¢	$156.6	$190.5	+$33.89	55% 7350-6025 (13375)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$146.53	$83.59	-$62.93	60% 12138-8014 (20152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$100.29	—	-$100.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.3¢	$46.24	$83.59	+$37.36
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3.6	—	+$11.7	51% 19968-19120 (39088)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 94.3¢	$122.58	$130	+$7.42	12% 18256-132960 (151216)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$78	—	-$78	48% 23215-25456 (48671)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$71.3	$45.6	-$25.69	56% 12423-9570 (21993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$26.55	$45.6	+$19.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.6¢	$44.75	—	-$44.75
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$80.97	—	-$80.97	57% 11933-8935 (20868)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 73¢	$37.23	$51	+$13.77	57% 7752-5941 (13693)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$54.03	$26.38	+$10.31	61% 94572-59547 (154119)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$38.25	—	-$38.25	64% 22658-12474 (35132)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$9.38	—	-$9.38	52% 89994-84473 (174467)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$62.63	—	-$62.63	59% 6683-4657 (11340)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$10.08	—	-$10.08	58% 37704-26918 (64622)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 43.3¢	$9.92	—	-$9.92	66% 111986-58335 (170321)
IM Imgonnadoit	Downavg 33.1¢	$1.7K	$0	+$2.1K	36% 129-231 (360)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,055.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.76

Record

93%

23125-1755 (24880)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$667.79

Value

$731.63

PnL

+$63.84

Record

66%

98941-51224 (150165)

Both legs:

Down$453.5862¢+$278.05

Up$214.2161.3¢-$214.21

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$197.38

Value

$307.66

PnL

+$110.28

Record

46%

38107-44997 (83104)

Both legs:

Up$131.2119.6¢-$131.21

Down$66.1721.5¢+$241.49

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$425.59

Value

$420.55

PnL

-$5.04

Record

49%

5150-5307 (10457)

Both legs:

Down$192.2345.7¢+$228.32

Up$233.3650.6¢-$233.36

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$347.37

Value

$343.1

PnL

-$4.27

Record

54%

15450-12912 (28362)

Both legs:

Down$153.9944.9¢+$189.11

Up$193.3850.5¢-$193.38

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$347.54

Value

$337.25

PnL

+$19.41

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$263.73

Value

$273.95

PnL

+$10.22

Record

55%

44643-37114 (81757)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$287.77

Value

—

PnL

-$287.77

Record

55%

8574-7000 (15574)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$177.6

Value

$189.87

PnL

+$12.27

Record

56%

13706-10905 (24611)

Both legs:

Down$78.0241.1¢+$111.85

Up$99.5855.3¢-$99.58

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$261.22

Value

$200

PnL

-$61.22

Record

51%

17029-16577 (33606)

Both legs:

Down$16884¢+$32

Up$93.2284.7¢-$93.22

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$156.6

Value

$190.5

PnL

+$33.89

Record

55%

7350-6025 (13375)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$146.53

Value

$83.59

PnL

-$62.93

Record

60%

12138-8014 (20152)

Both legs:

Up$100.2973.2¢-$100.29

Down$46.2455.3¢+$37.36

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

+$11.7

Record

51%

19968-19120 (39088)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$122.58

Value

$130

PnL

+$7.42

Record

12%

18256-132960 (151216)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$78

Value

—

PnL

-$78

Record

48%

23215-25456 (48671)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$71.3

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$25.69

Record

56%

12423-9570 (21993)

Both legs:

Down$26.5558.2¢+$19.06

Up$44.7561.6¢-$44.75

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$80.97

Value

—

PnL

-$80.97

Record

57%

11933-8935 (20868)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$37.23

Value

$51

PnL

+$13.77

Record

57%

7752-5941 (13693)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$54.03

Value

$26.38

PnL

+$10.31

Record

61%

94572-59547 (154119)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$38.25

Value

—

PnL

-$38.25

Record

64%

22658-12474 (35132)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.38

Value

—

PnL

-$9.38

Record

52%

89994-84473 (174467)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$62.63

Value

—

PnL

-$62.63

Record

59%

6683-4657 (11340)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

—

PnL

-$10.08

Record

58%

37704-26918 (64622)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

—

PnL

-$9.92

Record

66%

111986-58335 (170321)

Imgonnadoit

Down

Invested

$1,687.16

Value

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

36%

129-231 (360)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 19 top traders (42%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xce706427...0c5da1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793305800

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $2.1K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.27

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $337.25

+$19.41

MayorMamdani

Down — $273.95

machinelearned

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded