Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.0K

Combined PnL

$8.0K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares23,510

Combined PnL+$9.8K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,688

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02	Upavg 54.5¢	$12.4K	$21.0K	+$8.6K	51% 55-52 (107)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$8.0K	$9.9K	+$1.9K	52% 371-346 (717)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$5.5K	$9.9K	+$4.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$799.38	55% 658-530 (1188)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$2.3K	$4.2K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$2.4K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.9¢	$1.9K	$3.5K	+$1.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$524.76	—	-$524.76
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 22.2¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	50% 57-56 (113)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$155.78	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$756.8	—	-$756.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$601.01
IM Imgonnadoit	Upavg 43.1¢	$800	$1.9K	+$1.1K	36% 129-231 (360)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$21.33	49% 5150-5307 (10457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$473.83	—	-$473.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$696.81	$1.1K	+$452.49
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$912.21	$745.33	-$166.88	54% 15450-12912 (28362)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$487.94	—	-$487.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$424.28	$745.33	+$321.05
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 32.6¢	$656.98	$427.35	-$229.63	55% 8574-7000 (15574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$351.53	—	-$351.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.5¢	$305.46	$427.35	+$121.9
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$773.35	$643.75	-$129.59	55% 7350-6025 (13375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$363.53	—	-$363.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$409.82	$643.75	+$233.94
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$700.47	$632.94	-$67.53	57% 11933-8935 (20868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.8¢	$327.38	—	-$327.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.9¢	$373.09	$632.94	+$259.85
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$652.58	$580.95	-$71.63	56% 13706-10905 (24611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$312.75	—	-$312.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$339.83	$580.95	+$241.12
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$672.03	$638.27	-$33.75	60% 12138-8014 (20152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$422.47	$638.27	+$215.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$249.56	—	-$249.56
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$509.14	$443.28	-$65.87	66% 98941-51224 (150165)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$230.43	—	-$230.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$278.72	$443.28	+$164.56
BossgirlCTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$281.61	—	-$281.61	54% 4619-3928 (8547)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$506.78	$428.79	-$77.98	56% 12423-9570 (21993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$234.57	—	-$234.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$272.21	$428.79	+$156.58
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$495.8	$222.17	-$273.64	77% 9355-2798 (12153)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$342.36	—	-$342.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.1¢	$153.45	$222.17	+$68.72
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$239.55	$297.08	+$57.53	51% 17029-16577 (33606)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$209.56	$297.08	+$87.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$29.99	—	-$29.99
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 35.6¢	$143.25	—	-$143.25	66% 111986-58335 (170321)
MayorMamdaniCTR	Downavg 37.3¢	$130.03	—	-$130.03	55% 44643-37114 (81757)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 55¢	$165	$300	+$135	48% 23215-25456 (48671)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 31.1¢	$46.05	—	-$46.05	57% 7752-5941 (13693)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$54.16	—	-$54.16	56% 57842-44686 (102528)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR<$100	Downavg 11.7¢	$10.5	—	-$10.5	81% 169-39 (208)

royalanchor02

Invested

$12,380.86

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

51%

55-52 (107)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$7,953.25

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

371-346 (717)

Both legs:

Up$5,512.2555.7¢+$4.4K

Down$2,44132.2¢$-2.4K

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$3,391.3

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$799.38

Record

55%

658-530 (1188)

Both legs:

Up$2,315.1355.2¢+$1.9K

Down$1,076.1732.7¢$-1.1K

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$2,377.81

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

Both legs:

Up$1,853.0552.9¢+$1.7K

Down$524.7627.3¢-$524.76

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$1,111

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

57-56 (113)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$1,814.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$155.78

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Both legs:

Down$756.843.8¢-$756.8

Up$1,057.6963.8¢+$601.01

Imgonnadoit

Invested

$800

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

36%

129-231 (360)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,170.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$21.33

Record

49%

5150-5307 (10457)

Both legs:

Down$473.8338.6¢-$473.83

Up$696.8160.6¢+$452.49

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$912.21

Value

$745.33

PnL

-$166.88

Record

54%

15450-12912 (28362)

Both legs:

Down$487.9443.5¢-$487.94

Up$424.2856.9¢+$321.05

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$656.98

Value

$427.35

PnL

-$229.63

Record

55%

8574-7000 (15574)

Both legs:

Down$351.5332.6¢-$351.53

Up$305.4671.5¢+$121.9

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$773.35

Value

$643.75

PnL

-$129.59

Record

55%

7350-6025 (13375)

Both legs:

Down$363.5347.1¢-$363.53

Up$409.8263.7¢+$233.94

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$700.47

Value

$632.94

PnL

-$67.53

Record

57%

11933-8935 (20868)

Both legs:

Down$327.3845.8¢-$327.38

Up$373.0958.9¢+$259.85

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$652.58

Value

$580.95

PnL

-$71.63

Record

56%

13706-10905 (24611)

Both legs:

Down$312.7542.8¢-$312.75

Up$339.8358.5¢+$241.12

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$672.03

Value

$638.27

PnL

-$33.75

Record

60%

12138-8014 (20152)

Both legs:

Up$422.4766.2¢+$215.8

Down$249.5648.9¢-$249.56

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$509.14

Value

$443.28

PnL

-$65.87

Record

66%

98941-51224 (150165)

Both legs:

Down$230.4339.2¢-$230.43

Up$278.7262.9¢+$164.56

BossgirlCTR

Down

Invested

$281.61

Value

—

PnL

-$281.61

Record

54%

4619-3928 (8547)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$506.78

Value

$428.79

PnL

-$77.98

Record

56%

12423-9570 (21993)

Both legs:

Down$234.5742.9¢-$234.57

Up$272.2163.5¢+$156.58

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$495.8

Value

$222.17

PnL

-$273.64

Record

77%

9355-2798 (12153)

Both legs:

Down$342.3647.9¢-$342.36

Up$153.4569.1¢+$68.72

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$239.55

Value

$297.08

PnL

+$57.53

Record

51%

17029-16577 (33606)

Both legs:

Up$209.5670.5¢+$87.52

Down$29.9915¢-$29.99

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$143.25

Value

—

PnL

-$143.25

Record

66%

111986-58335 (170321)

MayorMamdaniCTR

Down

Invested

$130.03

Value

—

PnL

-$130.03

Record

55%

44643-37114 (81757)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$165

Value

$300

PnL

+$135

Record

48%

23215-25456 (48671)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.05

Value

—

PnL

-$46.05

Record

57%

7752-5941 (13693)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54.16

Value

—

PnL

-$54.16

Record

56%

57842-44686 (102528)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

—

PnL

-$10.5

Record

81%

169-39 (208)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x01e24371...d1750e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793305200

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

Up — $21.0K

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

borderlocket

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Up — $1.9K

+$1.1K

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$21.33

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded