Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 20 top traders (50%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL+$934.34

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares922

Combined PnL+$311.28

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$764.12	$771.84	+$7.72	93% 23125-1755 (24880)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$597.71	$705.11	+$107.39	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$336.18	$705.11	+$368.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$261.53	—	-$261.53
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$434.9	$407.63	-$27.27	54% 15450-12912 (28362)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$250.24	$407.63	+$157.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$184.66	—	-$184.66
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$407.75	$412.43	+$4.68	66% 98941-51224 (150165)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$275.81	$412.43	+$136.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$131.94	—	-$131.94
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$272.46	$297.77	+$25.31	49% 5150-5307 (10457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$178.49	$297.77	+$119.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$93.98	—	-$93.98
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 37.6¢	$156.49	$334.41	+$177.93	58% 37704-26918 (64622)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 55¢	$208.07	$378.3	+$170.24	52% 371-346 (717)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$221.31	$225.02	+$3.71	56% 13706-10905 (24611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$148.87	$225.02	+$76.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$72.44	—	-$72.44
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.3¢	$14.12	—	-$14.12	59% 62157-43293 (105450)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$177.23	$109.94	-$67.29	60% 12138-8014 (20152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$105.6	—	-$105.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$71.63	$109.94	+$38.31
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 64¢	$192	—	-$192	48% 23215-25456 (48671)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$139.86	$159.69	+$19.83	55% 8574-7000 (15574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$100.36	$159.69	+$59.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$39.5	—	-$39.5
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$133.58	$132.95	-$0.64	56% 12423-9570 (21993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$82.5	$132.95	+$50.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$51.09	—	-$51.09
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$120.25	$108.69	-$11.56	59% 6683-4657 (11340)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$68.3	—	-$68.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$51.95	$108.69	+$56.74
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$52	$100	+$48	51% 17029-16577 (33606)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$51	$100	+$49
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1	—	-$1
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 40.3¢	$60.19	$140	+$79.8	57% 11933-8935 (20868)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 55¢	$89.13	$162.06	+$72.93	55% 658-530 (1188)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 89¢	$114.73	$83.43	-$31.3	55% 7350-6025 (13375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$74.25	$83.43	+$9.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$40.48	—	-$40.48
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 59.6¢	$81.55	$136.81	+$55.26	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$83.05	$67.8	-$15.25	57% 7752-5941 (13693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$52.17	$67.8	+$15.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$30.88	—	-$30.88
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$64.48	—	-$29.35	64% 22658-12474 (35132)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.7¢	$4.35	—	-$4.35	46% 38107-44997 (83104)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$23.83	$42.22	+$18.39	55% 44643-37114 (81757)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 19.9¢	$8.86	—	-$8.86	52% 89994-84473 (174467)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 39.9¢	$13.95	—	-$13.95	50% 7779-7789 (15568)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$764.12

Value

$771.84

PnL

+$7.72

Record

93%

23125-1755 (24880)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$597.71

Value

$705.11

PnL

+$107.39

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Both legs:

Down$336.1847.7¢+$368.93

Up$261.5333.6¢-$261.53

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$434.9

Value

$407.63

PnL

-$27.27

Record

54%

15450-12912 (28362)

Both legs:

Down$250.2461.4¢+$157.39

Up$184.6640.4¢-$184.66

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$407.75

Value

$412.43

PnL

+$4.68

Record

66%

98941-51224 (150165)

Both legs:

Down$275.8166.9¢+$136.62

Up$131.9430.4¢-$131.94

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$272.46

Value

$297.77

PnL

+$25.31

Record

49%

5150-5307 (10457)

Both legs:

Down$178.4959.9¢+$119.28

Up$93.9827.1¢-$93.98

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$156.49

Value

$334.41

PnL

+$177.93

Record

58%

37704-26918 (64622)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$208.07

Value

$378.3

PnL

+$170.24

Record

52%

371-346 (717)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.31

Value

$225.02

PnL

+$3.71

Record

56%

13706-10905 (24611)

Both legs:

Down$148.8766.2¢+$76.15

Up$72.4438.3¢-$72.44

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

—

PnL

-$14.12

Record

59%

62157-43293 (105450)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$177.23

Value

$109.94

PnL

-$67.29

Record

60%

12138-8014 (20152)

Both legs:

Up$105.648¢-$105.6

Down$71.6365.2¢+$38.31

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$192

Value

—

PnL

-$192

Record

48%

23215-25456 (48671)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.86

Value

$159.69

PnL

+$19.83

Record

55%

8574-7000 (15574)

Both legs:

Down$100.3662.8¢+$59.33

Up$39.534.1¢-$39.5

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.58

Value

$132.95

PnL

-$0.64

Record

56%

12423-9570 (21993)

Both legs:

Down$82.562.1¢+$50.45

Up$51.0939.7¢-$51.09

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$120.25

Value

$108.69

PnL

-$11.56

Record

59%

6683-4657 (11340)

Both legs:

Up$68.352.1¢-$68.3

Down$51.9547.8¢+$56.74

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$52

Value

$100

PnL

+$48

Record

51%

17029-16577 (33606)

Both legs:

Invested

$60.19

Value

$140

PnL

+$79.8

Record

57%

11933-8935 (20868)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$89.13

Value

$162.06

PnL

+$72.93

Record

55%

658-530 (1188)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.73

Value

$83.43

PnL

-$31.3

Record

55%

7350-6025 (13375)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.55

Value

$136.81

PnL

+$55.26

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.05

Value

$67.8

PnL

-$15.25

Record

57%

7752-5941 (13693)

Both legs:

Down$52.1776.9¢+$15.63

Up$30.8835.5¢-$30.88

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$64.48

Value

—

PnL

-$29.35

Record

64%

22658-12474 (35132)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

—

PnL

-$4.35

Record

46%

38107-44997 (83104)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$23.83

Value

$42.22

PnL

+$18.39

Record

55%

44643-37114 (81757)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$8.86

Value

—

PnL

-$8.86

Record

52%

89994-84473 (174467)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

—

PnL

-$13.95

Record

50%

7779-7789 (15568)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 20 top traders (50%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7098a180...c05968

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793304900

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $771.84

+$7.72

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$107.39

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $334.41

+$177.93

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $378.3

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.29

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