Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 20%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$898.47

Smart Money Signal

8 of 24 top traders (33%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,493

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,535

Combined PnL-$690.43

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.93	56% 29327-23030 (52357)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 39.8¢	$547.91	$1.2K	+$652.52	58% 37704-26918 (64622)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$740.95	$743.41	+$2.46	54% 15450-12912 (28362)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.6¢	$443.02	$743.41	+$300.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$297.93	—	-$297.93
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$635.26	$692.34	+$57.08	66% 98941-51224 (150165)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$505.85	$692.34	+$186.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.4¢	$129.41	—	-$129.41
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$529.47	$413.48	-$116	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$293.04	—	-$293.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$236.44	$413.48	+$177.04
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$469.92	$390.18	-$79.74	56% 13706-10905 (24611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$212.43	—	-$212.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$257.49	$390.18	+$132.69
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 13.9¢	$119.11	—	-$119.11	77% 9355-2798 (12153)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$330.3	$288.66	-$41.64	49% 5150-5307 (10457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$180.63	—	-$180.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$149.67	$288.66	+$138.99
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$379.61	$400.43	+$20.81	60% 12138-8014 (20152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$254.31	$400.43	+$146.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$125.3	—	-$125.3
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$346.97	$308.31	-$38.66	56% 12423-9570 (21993)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$226.43	$308.31	+$81.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$120.53	—	-$120.53
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$330.65	$302.29	-$28.35	55% 7350-6025 (13375)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$244.17	$302.29	+$58.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$86.48	—	-$86.48
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 12.5¢	$62.21	—	-$62.21	65% 4007-2164 (6171)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$152.45	$124.99	-$27.46	57% 11933-8935 (20868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.3¢	$113.25	—	-$113.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.4¢	$39.2	$124.99	+$85.79
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$174.34	$194.77	+$20.43	55% 8574-7000 (15574)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$143.34	$194.77	+$51.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$31	—	-$31
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 47¢	$112.34	—	-$112.34	58% 50929-37060 (87989)
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 55.1¢	$107.5	—	-$107.5	59% 6683-4657 (11340)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 17.2¢	$29.03	—	-$29.03	51% 17029-16577 (33606)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$3.66	—	-$3.66	59% 62157-43293 (105450)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$25.85	—	-$25.85	58% 12577-9241 (21818)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$49.16	$55	+$5.84	64% 22658-12474 (35132)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$50.3	—	-$50.3	56% 57842-44686 (102528)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 21.1¢	$14.24	—	-$14.24	57% 7752-5941 (13693)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$47.65	—	-$47.65	55% 44643-37114 (81757)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$41.27	—	-$41.27	58% 60375-44064 (104439)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$2.74	—	-$2.73	46% 38107-44997 (83104)

THG.

Invested

$3,161.07

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.93

Record

56%

29327-23030 (52357)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$547.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$652.52

Record

58%

37704-26918 (64622)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$740.95

Value

$743.41

PnL

+$2.46

Record

54%

15450-12912 (28362)

Both legs:

Up$443.0259.6¢+$300.39

Down$297.9344.1¢-$297.93

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$635.26

Value

$692.34

PnL

+$57.08

Record

66%

98941-51224 (150165)

Both legs:

Up$505.8573.1¢+$186.49

Down$129.4133.4¢-$129.41

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$529.47

Value

$413.48

PnL

-$116

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Both legs:

Down$293.0451.6¢-$293.04

Up$236.4457.2¢+$177.04

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$469.92

Value

$390.18

PnL

-$79.74

Record

56%

13706-10905 (24611)

Both legs:

Down$212.4339.6¢-$212.43

Up$257.4966¢+$132.69

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$119.11

Value

—

PnL

-$119.11

Record

77%

9355-2798 (12153)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$330.3

Value

$288.66

PnL

-$41.64

Record

49%

5150-5307 (10457)

Both legs:

Down$180.6340.8¢-$180.63

Up$149.6751.8¢+$138.99

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$379.61

Value

$400.43

PnL

+$20.81

Record

60%

12138-8014 (20152)

Both legs:

Up$254.3163.5¢+$146.11

Down$125.347.1¢-$125.3

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$346.97

Value

$308.31

PnL

-$38.66

Record

56%

12423-9570 (21993)

Both legs:

Up$226.4373.4¢+$81.87

Down$120.5348.6¢-$120.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$330.65

Value

$302.29

PnL

-$28.35

Record

55%

7350-6025 (13375)

Both legs:

Up$244.1780.8¢+$58.12

Down$86.4844.5¢-$86.48

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.21

Value

—

PnL

-$62.21

Record

65%

4007-2164 (6171)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$152.45

Value

$124.99

PnL

-$27.46

Record

57%

11933-8935 (20868)

Both legs:

Down$113.2542.3¢-$113.25

Up$39.231.4¢+$85.79

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$174.34

Value

$194.77

PnL

+$20.43

Record

55%

8574-7000 (15574)

Both legs:

Up$143.3473.6¢+$51.43

Down$3162¢-$31

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$112.34

Value

—

PnL

-$112.34

Record

58%

50929-37060 (87989)

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$107.5

Value

—

PnL

-$107.5

Record

59%

6683-4657 (11340)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.03

Value

—

PnL

-$29.03

Record

51%

17029-16577 (33606)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.66

Value

—

PnL

-$3.66

Record

59%

62157-43293 (105450)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.85

Value

—

PnL

-$25.85

Record

58%

12577-9241 (21818)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$49.16

Value

$55

PnL

+$5.84

Record

64%

22658-12474 (35132)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.3

Value

—

PnL

-$50.3

Record

56%

57842-44686 (102528)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.24

Value

—

PnL

-$14.24

Record

57%

7752-5941 (13693)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.65

Value

—

PnL

-$47.65

Record

55%

44643-37114 (81757)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.27

Value

—

PnL

-$41.27

Record

58%

60375-44064 (104439)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.74

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

46%

38107-44997 (83104)

Smart Money Signal

8 of 24 top traders (33%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x80728695...3bcf16

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793304600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$31.93

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.2K

+$652.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded