Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 67%
6 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$44.44
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $509.3 | $524.04 | +$14.74 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.5¢ | $463.98 | $524.04 | +$60.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.9¢ | $45.32 | — | -$45.32 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $213.14 | $245.89 | +$32.75 | 59% 6675-4646 (11321) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $132.78 | $245.89 | +$113.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $80.36 | — | -$80.36 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $154.03 | $149.99 | -$4.04 | 49% 5140-5297 (10437) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.4¢ | $51.13 | — | -$51.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.6¢ | $102.89 | $149.99 | +$47.09 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $174.66 | $201.87 | +$27.21 | 66% 98940-51224 (150164) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $112.91 | $201.87 | +$88.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $61.76 | — | -$61.76 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 86¢ | $479.04 | $343.6 | -$63.7 | 48% 23211-25441 (48652) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 29.7¢ | $78.85 | $59.19 | -$19.66 | 54% 15379-12880 (28259) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.7¢ | $45.41 | — | -$45.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.5¢ | $33.44 | $59.19 | +$25.75 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $112 | $100 | -$12 | 51% 17022-16571 (33593) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13¢ | $13 | — | -$13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.7¢ | $46.77 | — | -$46.77 | 57% 11925-8923 (20848) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.6¢ | $16.8 | — | -$16.8 | 55% 8562-6992 (15554) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50¢ | $60 | $120 | +$60 | 58% 37673-26899 (64572) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.9¢ | $10.8 | — | +$5.92 | 51% 19963-19114 (39077) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $85.36 | $88 | +$2.64 | 60% 12127-8005 (20132) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $30.91 | $35.06 | +$4.14 | 56% 13693-10898 (24591) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $23.12 | $37.46 | +$14.33 | 66% 111959-58297 (170256) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $15.6 | — | -$15.6 | 56% 12410-9564 (21974) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $32.62 | $40.2 | +$7.58 | 61% 94531-59515 (154046) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $14.65 | — | -$14.65 | 55% 7338-6017 (13355) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $10.23 | $9.75 | -$0.48 | 64% 22587-12434 (35021) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $23.79 | $31.83 | +$8.04 | 52% 89954-84437 (174391) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $13.44 | $24 | +$10.56 | 34% 18690-35687 (54377) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $0.69 | $1.05 | +$0.36 | 40% 441-668 (1109) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3634-2823 (6457) |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$509.3
Value
$524.04
PnL
+$14.74
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
Both legs:
Invested
$213.14
Value
$245.89
PnL
+$32.75
Record
59%
6675-4646 (11321)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.03
Value
$149.99
PnL
-$4.04
Record
49%
5140-5297 (10437)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.66
Value
$201.87
PnL
+$27.21
Record
66%
98940-51224 (150164)
Both legs:
Invested
$479.04
Value
$343.6
PnL
-$63.7
Record
48%
23211-25441 (48652)
Invested
$78.85
Value
$59.19
PnL
-$19.66
Record
54%
15379-12880 (28259)
Both legs:
Invested
$112
Value
$100
PnL
-$12
Record
51%
17022-16571 (33593)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.77
Value
—
PnL
-$46.77
Record
57%
11925-8923 (20848)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$16.8
Value
—
PnL
-$16.8
Record
55%
8562-6992 (15554)
Invested
$60
Value
$120
PnL
+$60
Record
58%
37673-26899 (64572)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
+$5.92
Record
51%
19963-19114 (39077)
Invested
$85.36
Value
$88
PnL
+$2.64
Record
60%
12127-8005 (20132)
Invested
$30.91
Value
$35.06
PnL
+$4.14
Record
56%
13693-10898 (24591)
Invested
$23.12
Value
$37.46
PnL
+$14.33
Record
66%
111959-58297 (170256)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$15.6
Record
56%
12410-9564 (21974)
Invested
$32.62
Value
$40.2
PnL
+$7.58
Record
61%
94531-59515 (154046)
Invested
$14.65
Value
—
PnL
-$14.65
Record
55%
7338-6017 (13355)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.48
Record
64%
22587-12434 (35021)
Invested
$23.79
Value
$31.83
PnL
+$8.04
Record
52%
89954-84437 (174391)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$24
PnL
+$10.56
Record
34%
18690-35687 (54377)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.36
Record
40%
441-668 (1109)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3634-2823 (6457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $343.6
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $120