Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$956.86

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 39 top traders (77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15,872

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Down30 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares16,094

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Up — 23%Down — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 27.9¢	$3.7K	—	$-3.7K	51% 55-52 (107)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35.01	74% 102349-36366 (138715)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$2.7K	$1.2K	$-1.5K	52% 369-346 (715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.4¢	$995.29	$1.2K	+$212.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.9¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$73	49% 5140-5297 (10437)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.6¢	$1.1K	$2.5K	+$1.4K	58% 50925-37059 (87984)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$799.49	—	-$799.49	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 31.6¢	$1.3K	$541.3	-$732.84	55% 658-530 (1188)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.5¢	$441.32	$541.3	+$99.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$832.82	—	-$832.82
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46.8¢	$811.48	$1.7K	+$921.52	58% 37673-26899 (64572)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 70.9¢	$766.29	$851.38	+$91.67	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.7¢	$625.57	$577.46	-$48.12	60% 12127-8005 (20132)
machinelearned	Downavg 68.5¢	$474.45	$559.77	+$85.33	55% 8562-6992 (15554)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.3¢	$476.36	$519.69	+$43.33	54% 15379-12880 (28259)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 73.9¢	$538.77	$508.22	-$30.54	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 77.4¢	$359.46	$360.85	+$1.39	55% 7338-6017 (13355)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 64¢	$215.96	$300	+$84.04	51% 17022-16571 (33593)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 66¢	$244.84	$302.99	+$58.15	56% 13693-10898 (24591)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 71.9¢	$281.05	$388.7	+$109.15	63% 1761-1026 (2787)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Downavg 63.7¢	$225.62	$353.98	+$128.36	53% 3692-3210 (6902)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 65.3¢	$221.98	$211.85	-$10.13	57% 11925-8923 (20848)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$244.87	$242.13	-$2.75	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$170.42	$242.13	+$71.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$74.45	—	-$74.45
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 29¢	$142.07	—	-$142.07	65% 3999-2162 (6161)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 63.9¢	$180.89	$283	+$102.11	57% 7743-5936 (13679)
Bossgirl	Downavg 76.8¢	$165.71	$215.88	+$50.17	54% 4619-3928 (8547)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 70¢	$142.72	$175.19	+$32.47	56% 12410-9564 (21974)
pspspsps5	Downavg 66.8¢	$149.43	$223.6	+$74.17	46% 38100-44972 (83072)

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$3,664.56

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

51%

55-52 (107)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,465.89

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35.01

Record

74%

102349-36366 (138715)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$2,714.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

369-346 (715)

Both legs:

Down$995.2982.4¢+$212.37

Up$1,719.0229.9¢$-1.7K

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,209.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$73

Record

49%

5140-5297 (10437)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$1,135.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

50925-37059 (87984)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$799.49

Value

—

PnL

-$799.49

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$1,274.14

Value

$541.3

PnL

-$732.84

Record

55%

658-530 (1188)

Both legs:

Down$441.3281.5¢+$99.98

Up$832.8231.6¢-$832.82

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$811.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$921.52

Record

58%

37673-26899 (64572)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$766.29

Value

$851.38

PnL

+$91.67

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$625.57

Value

$577.46

PnL

-$48.12

Record

60%

12127-8005 (20132)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$474.45

Value

$559.77

PnL

+$85.33

Record

55%

8562-6992 (15554)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$476.36

Value

$519.69

PnL

+$43.33

Record

54%

15379-12880 (28259)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$538.77

Value

$508.22

PnL

-$30.54

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$359.46

Value

$360.85

PnL

+$1.39

Record

55%

7338-6017 (13355)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$215.96

Value

$300

PnL

+$84.04

Record

51%

17022-16571 (33593)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$244.84

Value

$302.99

PnL

+$58.15

Record

56%

13693-10898 (24591)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$281.05

Value

$388.7

PnL

+$109.15

Record

63%

1761-1026 (2787)

YouSayUpISayDown

Down

Invested

$225.62

Value

$353.98

PnL

+$128.36

Record

53%

3692-3210 (6902)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$221.98

Value

$211.85

PnL

-$10.13

Record

57%

11925-8923 (20848)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.87

Value

$242.13

PnL

-$2.75

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

Both legs:

Down$170.4270.4¢+$71.71

Up$74.4540.3¢-$74.45

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$142.07

Value

—

PnL

-$142.07

Record

65%

3999-2162 (6161)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$180.89

Value

$283

PnL

+$102.11

Record

57%

7743-5936 (13679)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$165.71

Value

$215.88

PnL

+$50.17

Record

54%

4619-3928 (8547)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$142.72

Value

$175.19

PnL

+$32.47

Record

56%

12410-9564 (21974)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$149.43

Value

$223.6

PnL

+$74.17

Record

46%

38100-44972 (83072)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 39 top traders (77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd89d14ad...71ec69

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793303700

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

CTR

Up — $0

$-3.7K

BoneOhio

Down — $3.5K

+$35.01

oxe78sh4w98

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.5K

ply-pm0

Down — $1.3K

+$73

PBot-6

Down — $2.5K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Up — $0

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.7K

+$921.52

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $851.38

+$91.67

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $577.46

-$48.12

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