Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$171.27

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,667

Combined PnL+$311.93

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$140.67

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.88	56% 29324-23030 (52354)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 65.7¢	$446.63	$450.66	+$4.03	54% 15379-12880 (28259)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.9¢	$389.02	$380.64	-$8.37	49% 5140-5297 (10437)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 81.1¢	$392.02	$329.98	-$62.04	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.3¢	$279.51	$334.51	+$54.99	56% 13693-10898 (24591)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$300.98	$297.89	-$3.09	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$240.55	$297.89	+$57.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.5¢	$60.43	—	-$60.43
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 82.2¢	$246.65	$300	+$53.35	48% 23211-25441 (48652)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 63.1¢	$177.23	$244.39	+$67.16	60% 12127-8005 (20132)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 74.4¢	$204.9	$252.7	+$47.8	57% 11925-8923 (20848)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 83.4¢	$220.89	$184.99	-$35.9	55% 7338-6017 (13355)
NIULAI4	Upavg 87.9¢	$165.25	$187.92	+$22.67	77% 9350-2795 (12145)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$161.59	$137.84	-$23.75	59% 6675-4646 (11321)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$91.13	—	-$91.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$70.46	$137.84	+$67.38
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64.4¢	$146.43	$165.83	+$19.4	56% 12410-9564 (21974)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 89¢	$133.66	$150.18	+$16.52	58% 60356-44051 (104407)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 73.2¢	$90.64	$121.41	+$30.77	66% 111959-58297 (170256)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 80.5¢	$103.05	$128	+$24.95	57% 7743-5936 (13679)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 27.6¢	$47.31	—	-$47.31	58% 37673-26899 (64572)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$47	—	-$47	34% 18690-35687 (54377)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 86.2¢	$62.12	$61.4	-$0.71	55% 8562-6992 (15554)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 81¢	$41.15	$50.79	+$9.64	46% 38100-44972 (83072)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97¢	$26.18	$26.99	+$0.81	93% 23082-1754 (24836)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$25.83	$42	+$16.17	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$12.92	$21	+$8.08	12% 18248-132955 (151203)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$11.58	$11.17	-$0.41	61% 94531-59515 (154046)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 65¢	$11.37	$17.49	+$6.12	64% 39919-22805 (62724)

THG.

Invested

$3,156.12

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.88

Record

56%

29324-23030 (52354)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$446.63

Value

$450.66

PnL

+$4.03

Record

54%

15379-12880 (28259)

ply-pm0

Invested

$389.02

Value

$380.64

PnL

-$8.37

Record

49%

5140-5297 (10437)

Bonereaper

Invested

$392.02

Value

$329.98

PnL

-$62.04

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

GoodFallen

Invested

$279.51

Value

$334.51

PnL

+$54.99

Record

56%

13693-10898 (24591)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$300.98

Value

$297.89

PnL

-$3.09

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

Both legs:

Up$240.5580.8¢+$57.34

Down$60.4320.5¢-$60.43

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$246.65

Value

$300

PnL

+$53.35

Record

48%

23211-25441 (48652)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$177.23

Value

$244.39

PnL

+$67.16

Record

60%

12127-8005 (20132)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$204.9

Value

$252.7

PnL

+$47.8

Record

57%

11925-8923 (20848)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$220.89

Value

$184.99

PnL

-$35.9

Record

55%

7338-6017 (13355)

NIULAI4

Invested

$165.25

Value

$187.92

PnL

+$22.67

Record

77%

9350-2795 (12145)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.59

Value

$137.84

PnL

-$23.75

Record

59%

6675-4646 (11321)

Both legs:

Down$91.1348.1¢-$91.13

Up$70.4651.1¢+$67.38

FairValueMachine

Invested

$146.43

Value

$165.83

PnL

+$19.4

Record

56%

12410-9564 (21974)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$133.66

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$16.52

Record

58%

60356-44051 (104407)

antsaslyku

Invested

$90.64

Value

$121.41

PnL

+$30.77

Record

66%

111959-58297 (170256)

wzbbb

Invested

$103.05

Value

$128

PnL

+$24.95

Record

57%

7743-5936 (13679)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.31

Value

—

PnL

-$47.31

Record

58%

37673-26899 (64572)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47

Value

—

PnL

-$47

Record

34%

18690-35687 (54377)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$62.12

Value

$61.4

PnL

-$0.71

Record

55%

8562-6992 (15554)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$41.15

Value

$50.79

PnL

+$9.64

Record

46%

38100-44972 (83072)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$26.18

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$0.81

Record

93%

23082-1754 (24836)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$25.83

Value

$42

PnL

+$16.17

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$21

PnL

+$8.08

Record

12%

18248-132955 (151203)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.17

PnL

-$0.41

Record

61%

94531-59515 (154046)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$11.37

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$6.12

Record

64%

39919-22805 (62724)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xea1d74bc...5f2435

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793303400

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$31.88

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $450.66

+$4.03

ply-pm0

Up — $380.64

-$8.37

Bonereaper

Up — $329.98

-$62.04

GoodFallen

Up — $334.51

+$54.99

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.09

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$53.35

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $244.39

+$67.16

EZTRADENL2

Up — $252.7

+$47.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $184.99

-$35.9

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