Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.1K

Combined PnL

$9.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 34 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$39.7K

Total Shares39,687

Combined PnL+$11.7K

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,341

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02	Downavg 61.5¢	$12.0K	$19.6K	+$7.5K	51% 55-52 (107)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 65.8¢	$6.5K	$9.0K	+$2.5K	52% 369-346 (715)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 64.4¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.1K	55% 658-530 (1188)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 71.6¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$487.53	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
BO borderlocketCTR	Upavg 23.5¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	50% 57-56 (113)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 73.7¢	$894.18	$864.53	-$29.65	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$756.14	$763.78	+$7.64	93% 23082-1754 (24836)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61¢	$874.47	$727.98	-$146.49	49% 5140-5297 (10437)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 61.8¢	$615.2	$575.19	-$40.01	54% 15379-12880 (28259)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$623.16	$452.76	-$170.4	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.6¢	$342.32	$452.76	+$110.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.2¢	$280.85	—	-$280.85
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 84.5¢	$546.53	$490.7	-$55.83	60% 12127-8005 (20132)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.2¢	$501.78	$428	-$73.78	55% 7338-6017 (13355)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 15.6¢	$370.42	$182	-$188.42	55% 8562-6992 (15554)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.5¢	$144.78	$182	+$37.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.6¢	$225.64	—	-$225.64
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.4¢	$311.74	$294.59	-$17.14	56% 13693-10898 (24591)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$235.76	$262.14	+$26.38	57% 7743-5936 (13679)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$191.13	$262.14	+$71.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.1¢	$44.63	—	-$44.63
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$315.58	$179	-$136.58	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.8¢	$135.77	$179	+$43.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$179.81	—	-$179.81
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.4¢	$186.62	$201.9	+$15.29	58% 37673-26899 (64572)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$230.49	$148.75	-$81.74	56% 12410-9564 (21974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$94.37	$148.75	+$54.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$136.12	—	-$136.12
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 23.9¢	$217.32	$87.36	-$129.96	66% 111959-58297 (170256)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$48.71	$87.36	+$38.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.9¢	$168.61	—	-$168.61
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 12.6¢	$178.13	—	-$178.13	77% 9350-2795 (12145)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 40¢	$232.64	$100	-$132.64	51% 17022-16571 (33593)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$72	$100	+$28
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$160.64	—	-$160.64
13 13897651	Downavg 53.7¢	$100.41	$177.8	+$77.39	59% 6675-4646 (11321)
BE berlinskies<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$44.57	$92.6	+$48.03	58% 5792-4248 (10040)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 17.4¢	$65.76	$43.37	-$22.38	65% 3999-2162 (6161)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$25.9	$43.37	+$17.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.4¢	$39.86	—	-$39.86
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$48.59	—	-$48.59	34% 18690-35687 (54377)

royalanchor02

Down

Invested

$12,035.27

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

51%

55-52 (107)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$6,493.61

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

52%

369-346 (715)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$2,783.75

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

658-530 (1188)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$2,130.66

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$487.53

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

borderlocketCTR

Invested

$1,340.88

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

57-56 (113)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$894.18

Value

$864.53

PnL

-$29.65

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$756.14

Value

$763.78

PnL

+$7.64

Record

93%

23082-1754 (24836)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$874.47

Value

$727.98

PnL

-$146.49

Record

49%

5140-5297 (10437)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$615.2

Value

$575.19

PnL

-$40.01

Record

54%

15379-12880 (28259)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$623.16

Value

$452.76

PnL

-$170.4

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

Both legs:

Down$342.3275.6¢+$110.44

Up$280.8525.2¢-$280.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$546.53

Value

$490.7

PnL

-$55.83

Record

60%

12127-8005 (20132)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$501.78

Value

$428

PnL

-$73.78

Record

55%

7338-6017 (13355)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$370.42

Value

$182

PnL

-$188.42

Record

55%

8562-6992 (15554)

Both legs:

Down$144.7879.5¢+$37.22

Up$225.6415.6¢-$225.64

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$311.74

Value

$294.59

PnL

-$17.14

Record

56%

13693-10898 (24591)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.76

Value

$262.14

PnL

+$26.38

Record

57%

7743-5936 (13679)

Both legs:

Down$191.1372.9¢+$71.01

Up$44.6329.1¢-$44.63

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$315.58

Value

$179

PnL

-$136.58

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

Both legs:

Down$135.7775.8¢+$43.23

Up$179.8141.9¢-$179.81

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$186.62

Value

$201.9

PnL

+$15.29

Record

58%

37673-26899 (64572)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$230.49

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$81.74

Record

56%

12410-9564 (21974)

Both legs:

Down$94.3763.4¢+$54.37

Up$136.1234.1¢-$136.12

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$217.32

Value

$87.36

PnL

-$129.96

Record

66%

111959-58297 (170256)

Both legs:

Down$48.7155.8¢+$38.65

Up$168.6123.9¢-$168.61

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$178.13

Value

—

PnL

-$178.13

Record

77%

9350-2795 (12145)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$232.64

Value

$100

PnL

-$132.64

Record

51%

17022-16571 (33593)

Both legs:

Invested

$100.41

Value

$177.8

PnL

+$77.39

Record

59%

6675-4646 (11321)

berlinskies<$100

Down

Invested

$44.57

Value

$92.6

PnL

+$48.03

Record

58%

5792-4248 (10040)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$65.76

Value

$43.37

PnL

-$22.38

Record

65%

3999-2162 (6161)

Both legs:

Down$25.959.7¢+$17.47

Up$39.8617.4¢-$39.86

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$48.59

Value

—

PnL

-$48.59

Record

34%

18690-35687 (54377)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 34 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5a83685f...c90558

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793303100

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

Down — $19.6K

+$7.5K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $9.0K

+$2.5K

3123123121313

Down — $3.9K

+$1.1K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $2.6K

+$487.53

borderlocket

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.3K

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $864.53

-$29.65

hoodquant

Down — $763.78

+$7.64

ply-pm0

Down — $727.98

-$146.49

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $575.19

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded