Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$989.92

Smart Money Signal

26 of 34 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares16,424

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,618

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalanchor02	Upavg 58.6¢	$3.4K	$5.9K	+$2.4K	51% 55-52 (107)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.85	56% 29324-23030 (52354)
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 12.2¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	50% 57-56 (113)
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.46	52% 369-346 (715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$727.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.5¢	$722.03	—	-$722.03
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.63	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
machinelearned	Upavg 86.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$99.9	55% 8562-6992 (15554)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$707.01	$828.96	+$121.95	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$467.84	$828.96	+$361.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.6¢	$239.17	—	-$239.17
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.8¢	$817.17	$819.19	+$2.03	49% 5140-5297 (10437)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 73.6¢	$536.52	$638.22	+$101.69	60% 12127-8005 (20132)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$605.1	$600.39	-$4.71	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.4¢	$476.83	$600.39	+$123.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.6¢	$128.27	—	-$128.27
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 84.8¢	$546.82	$627.76	+$80.94	57% 7743-5936 (13679)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 85¢	$440.08	$389.97	-$50.11	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85¢	$331.56	$389.97	+$58.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$108.51	—	-$108.51
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 79.3¢	$373.93	$392.45	+$18.52	57% 11925-8923 (20848)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 53.6¢	$400	—	-$400	35% 118-220 (338)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Upavg 80.7¢	$360.52	$446.62	+$86.1	63% 1761-1026 (2787)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 85¢	$272.26	$300	+$27.74	51% 17022-16571 (33593)
pspspsps5	Upavg 89.3¢	$268.72	$300.8	+$32.08	46% 38100-44972 (83072)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 91¢	$273	$300	+$27	48% 23211-25441 (48652)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$284.91	$212.82	-$71.79	55% 7338-6017 (13355)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.3¢	$175.17	$212.82	+$37.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.3¢	$108.53	—	-$109.44
ohioism	Upavg 89¢	$137.18	$150.08	+$12.9	64% 39919-22805 (62724)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 90¢	$135.16	$150.18	+$15.02	62% 43705-26697 (70402)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 48¢	$96	$200.01	+$104.01	58% 50925-37059 (87984)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 66.5¢	$77.86	$117.1	+$39.24	58% 60356-44051 (104407)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.4¢	$104.34	$138	+$33.66	54% 15379-12880 (28259)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 45¢	$74.5	$165.56	+$91.06	58% 37673-26899 (64572)

royalanchor02

Invested

$3,430.96

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

51%

55-52 (107)

THG.

Invested

$3,153.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.85

Record

56%

29324-23030 (52354)

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$1,582.71

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

50%

57-56 (113)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$1,863.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.46

Record

52%

369-346 (715)

Both legs:

Up$1,141.8461.1¢+$727.49

Down$722.0312.5¢-$722.03

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,203.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.63

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,320.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$99.9

Record

55%

8562-6992 (15554)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$707.01

Value

$828.96

PnL

+$121.95

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

Both legs:

Up$467.8456.4¢+$361.12

Down$239.1712.6¢-$239.17

ply-pm0

Invested

$817.17

Value

$819.19

PnL

+$2.03

Record

49%

5140-5297 (10437)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$536.52

Value

$638.22

PnL

+$101.69

Record

60%

12127-8005 (20132)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$605.1

Value

$600.39

PnL

-$4.71

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

Both legs:

Up$476.8379.4¢+$123.57

Down$128.2718.6¢-$128.27

wzbbb

Invested

$546.82

Value

$627.76

PnL

+$80.94

Record

57%

7743-5936 (13679)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$440.08

Value

$389.97

PnL

-$50.11

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

Both legs:

Up$331.5685¢+$58.41

Down$108.5128.6¢-$108.51

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$373.93

Value

$392.45

PnL

+$18.52

Record

57%

11925-8923 (20848)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$400

Value

—

PnL

-$400

Record

35%

118-220 (338)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Invested

$360.52

Value

$446.62

PnL

+$86.1

Record

63%

1761-1026 (2787)

gansinimen

Invested

$272.26

Value

$300

PnL

+$27.74

Record

51%

17022-16571 (33593)

pspspsps5

Invested

$268.72

Value

$300.8

PnL

+$32.08

Record

46%

38100-44972 (83072)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$273

Value

$300

PnL

+$27

Record

48%

23211-25441 (48652)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$284.91

Value

$212.82

PnL

-$71.79

Record

55%

7338-6017 (13355)

Both legs:

Up$175.1782.3¢+$37.65

Down$108.5324.3¢-$109.44

ohioism

Invested

$137.18

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$12.9

Record

64%

39919-22805 (62724)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$135.16

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$15.02

Record

62%

43705-26697 (70402)

PBot-6

Invested

$96

Value

$200.01

PnL

+$104.01

Record

58%

50925-37059 (87984)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$77.86

Value

$117.1

PnL

+$39.24

Record

58%

60356-44051 (104407)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$104.34

Value

$138

PnL

+$33.66

Record

54%

15379-12880 (28259)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$74.5

Value

$165.56

PnL

+$91.06

Record

58%

37673-26899 (64572)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 34 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x33782f53...b50ec6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793302800

Traders in this Market

royalanchor02

Up — $5.9K

+$2.4K

THG.

Up — $3.2K

borderlocket

Down — $0

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $1.2K

-$26.63

machinelearned

Up — $1.2K

-$99.9

0xdc27...afdd9a

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$121.95

ply-pm0

Up — $819.19

+$2.03

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $638.22

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded