Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.7K

Combined PnL

$952.73

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares22,763

Combined PnL+$5.4K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,540

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 46¢	$4.3K	$7.0K	+$2.7K	52% 369-346 (715)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.82	56% 29324-23030 (52354)
RO royalanchor02CTR	Upavg 24¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.3K	51% 55-52 (107)
BO borderlocket	Downavg 40¢	$1.8K	$4.4K	+$2.6K	50% 57-56 (113)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$81.2	59% 62143-43276 (105419)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.6¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$249.38	64% 57982-32684 (90666)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 45.2¢	$914.96	$1.1K	+$230.4	52% 1993-1805 (3798)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.8¢	$943.55	—	-$943.55	58% 37673-26899 (64572)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.7¢	$848.73	$868.67	+$19.93	93% 23082-1754 (24836)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 65¢	$894.58	$800.34	-$94.24	54% 15379-12880 (28259)
machinelearned	Downavg 83¢	$911.55	$557.21	-$354.34	55% 8562-6992 (15554)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.7¢	$626.09	$517.36	-$108.74	49% 5140-5297 (10437)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$576.84	$454.19	-$122.66	51% 17022-16571 (33593)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.5¢	$360.89	$454.19	+$93.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$215.95	—	-$215.95
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 86.2¢	$516	$520.25	+$4.25	57% 7743-5936 (13679)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75.4¢	$381.71	$378.29	-$3.43	66% 98940-51224 (150164)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 49.4¢	$425.43	—	-$425.43	56% 13693-10898 (24591)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$377.2	$250	-$127.2	56% 12410-9564 (21974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$176.1	$250	+$73.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$201.1	—	-$201.1
MayorMamdaniCTR	Upavg 54.9¢	$233.89	—	-$233.89	55% 44610-37084 (81694)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$192.9	$120	-$72.9	57% 11925-8923 (20848)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$123.9	—	-$123.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$69	$120	+$51
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 62.1¢	$187.38	$225.18	+$37.79	60% 12127-8005 (20132)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 39.4¢	$216.09	—	-$215.54	55% 7338-6017 (13355)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$115.56	—	-$115.56	58% 50925-37059 (87984)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$53.69	$54.88	+$1.19	65% 3999-2162 (6161)
└ Up leg	Upavg 10¢	$24.45	—	-$24.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$29.24	$54.88	+$25.64
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$95	$50	-$45	34% 18690-35687 (54377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$72	—	-$72
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$23	$50	+$27
pspspsps5	Downavg 97¢	$172.24	$89.3	-$82.94	46% 38100-44972 (83072)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$4,311.41

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

52%

369-346 (715)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,150.18

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.82

Record

56%

29324-23030 (52354)

royalanchor02CTR

Invested

$2,323.17

Value

—

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

51%

55-52 (107)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$1,761.09

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

57-56 (113)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,581.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$81.2

Record

59%

62143-43276 (105419)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,696.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$249.38

Record

64%

57982-32684 (90666)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$914.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$230.4

Record

52%

1993-1805 (3798)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$943.55

Value

—

PnL

-$943.55

Record

58%

37673-26899 (64572)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$848.73

Value

$868.67

PnL

+$19.93

Record

93%

23082-1754 (24836)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$894.58

Value

$800.34

PnL

-$94.24

Record

54%

15379-12880 (28259)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$911.55

Value

$557.21

PnL

-$354.34

Record

55%

8562-6992 (15554)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$626.09

Value

$517.36

PnL

-$108.74

Record

49%

5140-5297 (10437)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$576.84

Value

$454.19

PnL

-$122.66

Record

51%

17022-16571 (33593)

Both legs:

Down$360.8979.5¢+$93.29

Up$215.9550.6¢-$215.95

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$516

Value

$520.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

57%

7743-5936 (13679)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$381.71

Value

$378.29

PnL

-$3.43

Record

66%

98940-51224 (150164)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$425.43

Value

—

PnL

-$425.43

Record

56%

13693-10898 (24591)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$377.2

Value

$250

PnL

-$127.2

Record

56%

12410-9564 (21974)

Both legs:

Down$176.170.4¢+$73.9

Up$201.161.2¢-$201.1

MayorMamdaniCTR

Invested

$233.89

Value

—

PnL

-$233.89

Record

55%

44610-37084 (81694)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$192.9

Value

$120

PnL

-$72.9

Record

57%

11925-8923 (20848)

Both legs:

Up$123.950.5¢-$123.9

Down$6957.5¢+$51

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$187.38

Value

$225.18

PnL

+$37.79

Record

60%

12127-8005 (20132)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$216.09

Value

—

PnL

-$215.54

Record

55%

7338-6017 (13355)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$115.56

Value

—

PnL

-$115.56

Record

58%

50925-37059 (87984)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.69

Value

$54.88

PnL

+$1.19

Record

65%

3999-2162 (6161)

Both legs:

Up$24.4510¢-$24.45

Down$29.2453.3¢+$25.64

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$95

Value

$50

PnL

-$45

Record

34%

18690-35687 (54377)

Both legs:

Invested

$172.24

Value

$89.3

PnL

-$82.94

Record

46%

38100-44972 (83072)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x56d1aa68...cad8a6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793302500

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $7.0K

+$2.7K

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$31.82

royalanchor02

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.3K

borderlocket

Down — $4.4K

+$2.6K

0x50f7

Down — $1.5K

-$81.2

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.4K

-$249.38

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $1.1K

+$230.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$943.55

hoodquant

Down — $868.67

+$19.93

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $800.34

-$94.24

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