Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$895.82

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,284

Combined PnL+$927.64

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL-$31.82

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$51.14	93% 23010-1752 (24762)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$17.82	56% 29304-23029 (52333)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 42.8¢	$428.06	$1.0K	+$572.09	58% 50906-37040 (87946)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$313.88	$379.51	+$65.63	56% 13668-10884 (24552)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$240.12	$379.51	+$139.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$73.76	—	-$73.76
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$12.01	—	-$12.01	58% 60318-44026 (104344)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$330.77	$405.8	+$75.03	56% 12384-9551 (21935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$253.78	$405.8	+$152.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$76.99	—	-$76.99
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Downavg 3.9¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2941-1045 (3986)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$160.76	$150.85	-$9.91	67% 53210-26622 (79832)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.5¢	$35.22	—	-$35.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.2¢	$125.54	$150.85	+$25.31
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 94.1¢	$197.58	$205.64	+$8.06	60% 12102-7991 (20093)
└ Up leg	Upavg 94.1¢	$193.57	$205.64	+$12.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.5¢	$4.01	—	-$4.01
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.1¢	$2.99	—	-$2.99	46% 38058-44932 (82990)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 93.6¢	$202.9	$153.92	-$48.98	58% 37618-26852 (64470)
└ Up leg	Upavg 93.6¢	$144.12	$153.92	+$9.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$58.78	—	-$58.78
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 56.1¢	$114	$203.33	+$89.33	57% 70397-53494 (123891)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$94.21	$133.71	+$39.51	59% 6654-4627 (11281)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$62.72	$133.71	+$70.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$31.49	—	-$31.49
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 83¢	$56.21	$55	-$1.21	55% 8543-6971 (15514)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10¢	$10.56	—	-$10.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$45.65	$55	+$9.35
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 72.1¢	$103.38	$139.99	+$36.61	57% 11905-8903 (20808)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 62.7¢	$88.28	$140.71	+$52.43	51% 17009-16560 (33569)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$51.41	$69.45	+$18.04	49% 5122-5275 (10397)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$43.6	$69.45	+$25.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$7.81	—	-$7.81
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 73¢	$21.6	$25.36	+$6.22	61% 94473-59453 (153926)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 65.8¢	$68.3	$100.16	+$31.86	55% 17687-14297 (31984)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 90¢	$92	$102.22	+$10.22	57% 10275-7708 (17983)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$1.82	—	-$1.82	48% 23191-25411 (48602)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 60¢	$11.35	$16	+$4.65	52% 89899-84354 (174253)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 89¢	$54.59	$51	-$3.59	57% 7723-5920 (13643)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$44.27	$66.34	+$22.07	55% 44540-37040 (81580)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 65.1¢	$33.47	$49	+$15.53	55% 7318-5998 (13316)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,456.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$51.14

Record

93%

23010-1752 (24762)

THG.

Invested

$1,764.09

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$17.82

Record

56%

29304-23029 (52333)

PBot-6

Invested

$428.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$572.09

Record

58%

50906-37040 (87946)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$313.88

Value

$379.51

PnL

+$65.63

Record

56%

13668-10884 (24552)

Both legs:

Up$240.1263.3¢+$139.39

Down$73.7632.7¢-$73.76

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.01

Value

—

PnL

-$12.01

Record

58%

60318-44026 (104344)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$330.77

Value

$405.8

PnL

+$75.03

Record

56%

12384-9551 (21935)

Both legs:

Up$253.7862.5¢+$152.02

Down$76.9942.8¢-$76.99

Vega7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2941-1045 (3986)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$160.76

Value

$150.85

PnL

-$9.91

Record

67%

53210-26622 (79832)

Both legs:

Down$35.2219.5¢-$35.22

Up$125.5483.2¢+$25.31

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$197.58

Value

$205.64

PnL

+$8.06

Record

60%

12102-7991 (20093)

Both legs:

Up$193.5794.1¢+$12.07

Down$4.013.5¢-$4.01

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.99

Value

—

PnL

-$2.99

Record

46%

38058-44932 (82990)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$202.9

Value

$153.92

PnL

-$48.98

Record

58%

37618-26852 (64470)

Both legs:

Up$144.1293.6¢+$9.8

Down$58.7851¢-$58.78

uninformedfloww

Invested

$114

Value

$203.33

PnL

+$89.33

Record

57%

70397-53494 (123891)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$94.21

Value

$133.71

PnL

+$39.51

Record

59%

6654-4627 (11281)

Both legs:

Up$62.7246.9¢+$70.99

Down$31.4954.1¢-$31.49

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$56.21

Value

$55

PnL

-$1.21

Record

55%

8543-6971 (15514)

Both legs:

Down$10.5610¢-$10.56

Up$45.6583¢+$9.35

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$103.38

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$36.61

Record

57%

11905-8903 (20808)

gansinimen

Invested

$88.28

Value

$140.71

PnL

+$52.43

Record

51%

17009-16560 (33569)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$51.41

Value

$69.45

PnL

+$18.04

Record

49%

5122-5275 (10397)

Both legs:

Up$43.662.8¢+$25.85

Down$7.8115¢-$7.81

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$6.22

Record

61%

94473-59453 (153926)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$68.3

Value

$100.16

PnL

+$31.86

Record

55%

17687-14297 (31984)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$92

Value

$102.22

PnL

+$10.22

Record

57%

10275-7708 (17983)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

23191-25411 (48602)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$11.35

Value

$16

PnL

+$4.65

Record

52%

89899-84354 (174253)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$54.59

Value

$51

PnL

-$3.59

Record

57%

7723-5920 (13643)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$44.27

Value

$66.34

PnL

+$22.07

Record

55%

44540-37040 (81580)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$33.47

Value

$49

PnL

+$15.53

Record

55%

7318-5998 (13316)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf6632f84...bd1834

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793287200

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $2.5K

+$51.14

THG.

Up — $1.8K

+$17.82

PBot-6

Up — $1.0K

+$572.09

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$65.63

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Vega7

Down — $0

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $0