Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 61%
3 arb excluded
$7.6K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 30 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$26.72 | 56% 29299-23029 (52328) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$43.56 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 36.6¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 35% 108-204 (312) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.5¢ | $346.14 | $364.8 | +$18.66 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 70.7¢ | $312.23 | $300 | -$12.23 | 51% 17007-16559 (33566) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 47.3¢ | $196.19 | $414.42 | +$218.23 | 58% 50902-37035 (87937) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $190.53 | $198.54 | +$8 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
ST std0 | Upavg 82¢ | $190.74 | $179.99 | -$10.75 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $160.96 | $180 | +$19.04 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.7¢ | $109.2 | $180 | +$70.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $51.76 | — | -$51.76 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $162.22 | $172.95 | +$10.73 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.3¢ | $116.34 | $172.95 | +$56.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.9¢ | $45.88 | — | -$45.88 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 84.9¢ | $189.36 | $144.25 | -$45.11 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 50.4¢ | $126 | $250 | +$124 | 34% 18664-35664 (54328) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $81.92 | $152.72 | +$70.8 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $99.1 | $148.59 | +$49.49 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $76.03 | $127.32 | +$51.29 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $45.02 | — | -$45.02 | 64% 39890-22786 (62676) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 33.4¢ | $75.06 | $40 | -$35.06 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.4¢ | $41.26 | — | -$41.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.5¢ | $33.8 | $40 | +$6.2 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $45.79 | $62.3 | +$16.51 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $36 | — | -$36 | 58% 12551-9211 (21762) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $36.84 | — | -$36.84 | 57% 10267-7696 (17963) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $29.41 | $27.17 | -$2.24 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.6¢ | $58.87 | — | -$58.87 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $21.23 | — | -$21.23 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $29.47 | $43.99 | +$14.52 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $16.99 | — | -$16.99 | 62% 43672-26664 (70336) |
Invested
$2,645.22
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$26.72
Record
56%
29299-23029 (52328)
Invested
$2,005.76
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$43.56
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$1,517
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
35%
108-204 (312)
Invested
$346.14
Value
$364.8
PnL
+$18.66
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Invested
$312.23
Value
$300
PnL
-$12.23
Record
51%
17007-16559 (33566)
Invested
$196.19
Value
$414.42
PnL
+$218.23
Record
58%
50902-37035 (87937)
Invested
$190.53
Value
$198.54
PnL
+$8
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
Invested
$190.74
Value
$179.99
PnL
-$10.75
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$160.96
Value
$180
PnL
+$19.04
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.22
Value
$172.95
PnL
+$10.73
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Both legs:
Invested
$189.36
Value
$144.25
PnL
-$45.11
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Invested
$126
Value
$250
PnL
+$124
Record
34%
18664-35664 (54328)
Invested
$81.92
Value
$152.72
PnL
+$70.8
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Invested
$99.1
Value
$148.59
PnL
+$49.49
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$76.03
Value
$127.32
PnL
+$51.29
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$45.02
Value
—
PnL
-$45.02
Record
64%
39890-22786 (62676)
Invested
$75.06
Value
$40
PnL
-$35.06
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.79
Value
$62.3
PnL
+$16.51
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
—
PnL
-$36
Record
58%
12551-9211 (21762)
Invested
$36.84
Value
—
PnL
-$36.84
Record
57%
10267-7696 (17963)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$27.17
PnL
-$2.24
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$58.87
Value
—
PnL
-$58.87
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$21.23
Value
—
PnL
-$21.23
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$29.47
Value
$43.99
PnL
+$14.52
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$16.99
Value
—
PnL
-$16.99
Record
62%
43672-26664 (70336)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $2.7K
hoodquant
Up — $2.0K
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
Up — $364.8
gansinimen
Up — $300
PBot-6
Up — $414.42
ply-pm0
Up — $198.54
std0
Up — $179.99
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded