Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 67%
3 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$539.17
Smart Money Signal
14 of 23 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 40.1¢ | $799.81 | — | -$799.81 | 35% 108-204 (312) |
TE TelawinCTR | Downavg 44¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 51% 339-330 (669) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $548.78 | $587.1 | +$38.32 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.1¢ | $358.76 | $587.1 | +$228.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.3¢ | $190.02 | — | -$190.02 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $281.71 | $542.41 | +$260.7 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 64.5¢ | $288.77 | $399.88 | +$111.11 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $252.02 | $277.89 | +$25.88 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $196.15 | $279.29 | +$83.14 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 73.9¢ | $173.65 | $235 | +$61.35 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $195.87 | $198 | +$2.13 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $132.76 | $127.89 | -$4.87 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.9¢ | $100.94 | $127.89 | +$26.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.2¢ | $31.82 | — | -$31.82 | |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $110.32 | $227.6 | +$117.28 | 58% 50902-37035 (87937) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $71.19 | $51.59 | -$19.61 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.7¢ | $35.43 | $51.59 | +$16.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $35.76 | — | -$35.76 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 56.3¢ | $57.26 | $101.77 | +$44.51 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $39.84 | $66 | +$26.16 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.4¢ | $5.39 | — | -$5.39 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $36.2 | $55.95 | +$19.75 | 51% 17007-16559 (33566) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $35.83 | $70.49 | +$34.66 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 63.5¢ | $26.67 | $42 | +$15.33 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $46 | $33.83 | +$7.44 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | 50% 7748-7766 (15514) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $13 | — | -$13 | 58% 60303-44021 (104324) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $8 | $12.09 | +$4.09 | 58% 12551-9211 (21762) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.7¢ | $3.47 | — | -$3.47 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.2¢ | $3.03 | — | -$3.03 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 428-655 (1083) |
Invested
$799.81
Value
—
PnL
-$799.81
Record
35%
108-204 (312)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
51%
339-330 (669)
Invested
$548.78
Value
$587.1
PnL
+$38.32
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Both legs:
Invested
$281.71
Value
$542.41
PnL
+$260.7
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
FairValueMachineInvested
$288.77
Value
$399.88
PnL
+$111.11
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Invested
$252.02
Value
$277.89
PnL
+$25.88
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
Invested
$196.15
Value
$279.29
PnL
+$83.14
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
machinelearnedInvested
$173.65
Value
$235
PnL
+$61.35
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$195.87
Value
$198
PnL
+$2.13
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$132.76
Value
$127.89
PnL
-$4.87
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.32
Value
$227.6
PnL
+$117.28
Record
58%
50902-37035 (87937)
Invested
$71.19
Value
$51.59
PnL
-$19.61
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.26
Value
$101.77
PnL
+$44.51
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Invested
$39.84
Value
$66
PnL
+$26.16
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.39
Value
—
PnL
-$5.39
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
Invested
$36.2
Value
$55.95
PnL
+$19.75
Record
51%
17007-16559 (33566)
Invested
$35.83
Value
$70.49
PnL
+$34.66
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$26.67
Value
$42
PnL
+$15.33
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$46
Value
$33.83
PnL
+$7.44
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
Invested
$28
Value
—
PnL
-$28
Record
50%
7748-7766 (15514)
Invested
$13
Value
—
PnL
-$13
Record
58%
60303-44021 (104324)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$8
Value
$12.09
PnL
+$4.09
Record
58%
12551-9211 (21762)
Invested
$3.47
Value
—
PnL
-$3.47
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
$3.03
Value
—
PnL
-$3.03
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
428-655 (1083)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
Telawin
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $542.41
FairValueMachine
Up — $399.88
EZTRADENL2
Up — $277.89
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $279.29
machinelearned
Up — $235
hoodquant
Up — $198
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded