Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Up 78%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$259.84
Smart Money Signal
20 of 25 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$18.95 | 56% 29299-23029 (52328) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$36.25 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 74.1¢ | $307.69 | $360.81 | +$53.12 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $265.57 | $457.68 | +$192.11 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.1¢ | $215.62 | $457.68 | +$242.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26¢ | $49.95 | — | -$49.95 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 69.2¢ | $337.18 | $300 | -$37.18 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $172.71 | $223.63 | +$50.93 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 75.5¢ | $154 | $200 | +$46 | 51% 17007-16559 (33566) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $111.57 | $136.06 | +$24.49 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $90.34 | $98.13 | +$7.79 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $70.47 | $84.23 | +$13.76 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $119.19 | $159.99 | +$40.8 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $67.24 | $85.96 | +$18.72 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $57.6 | $60.63 | +$3.03 | 57% 10267-7696 (17963) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $43.32 | $82.8 | +$39.48 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $44.8 | $60 | +$15.2 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.4¢ | $29.67 | — | -$29.67 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $30.35 | $35 | +$4.65 | 12% 18220-132943 (151163) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $25.81 | $11.59 | +$5.58 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 35% 108-204 (312) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $10.11 | — | -$10.11 | 50% 7748-7766 (15514) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $23.71 | $5 | -$3.75 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $10 | +$3.3 | 40% 428-655 (1083) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.5¢ | $16 | — | -$16 | 58% 12551-9211 (21762) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.9¢ | $5.5 | — | -$5.5 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19925-19088 (39013) |
Invested
$1,876.4
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.95
Record
56%
29299-23029 (52328)
Invested
$1,462.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$36.25
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$307.69
Value
$360.81
PnL
+$53.12
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Invested
$265.57
Value
$457.68
PnL
+$192.11
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$337.18
Value
$300
PnL
-$37.18
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$172.71
Value
$223.63
PnL
+$50.93
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$154
Value
$200
PnL
+$46
Record
51%
17007-16559 (33566)
Invested
$111.57
Value
$136.06
PnL
+$24.49
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$90.34
Value
$98.13
PnL
+$7.79
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Invested
$70.47
Value
$84.23
PnL
+$13.76
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
Invested
$119.19
Value
$159.99
PnL
+$40.8
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$67.24
Value
$85.96
PnL
+$18.72
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$60.63
PnL
+$3.03
Record
57%
10267-7696 (17963)
Invested
$43.32
Value
$82.8
PnL
+$39.48
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
Invested
$44.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$15.2
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$29.67
Value
—
PnL
-$29.67
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.65
Record
12%
18220-132943 (151163)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$11.59
PnL
+$5.58
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
35%
108-204 (312)
Invested
$10.11
Value
—
PnL
-$10.11
Record
50%
7748-7766 (15514)
Invested
$23.71
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.75
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.3
Record
40%
428-655 (1083)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$16
Value
—
PnL
-$16
Record
58%
12551-9211 (21762)
Invested
$5.5
Value
—
PnL
-$5.5
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19925-19088 (39013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Up — $1.9K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
GoodFallen
Up — $360.81
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $300
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $223.63
gansinimen
Up — $200
ply-pm0
Up — $136.06
FairValueMachine
Up — $98.13
std0
Up — $84.23