Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,034

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$136.14

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$760.81	$807.25	+$46.44	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$479.13	$807.25	+$328.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$281.68	—	-$281.68
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$26.06	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$274.77	$308	+$33.23	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$165.44	$308	+$142.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$109.33	—	-$109.33
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 78.4¢	$263.97	$260.23	-$3.74	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.4¢	$204.13	$260.23	+$56.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$59.84	—	-$59.84
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$251.21	$298.14	+$46.92	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.4¢	$189	$298.14	+$109.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$62.21	—	-$62.21
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.1¢	$110.89	$212.49	+$101.6	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$116.95	$149.5	+$32.55	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$84.22	$149.5	+$65.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$32.73	—	-$32.73
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 26.1¢	$53.54	$50	-$3.54	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$35.54	—	-$35.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$18	$50	+$32
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 72¢	$108.06	$150.08	+$42.02	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$82.19	$84.99	+$2.8	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$51.5	$84.99	+$33.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$30.68	—	-$30.68
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$64.78	—	-$64.78	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$51.85	$94.99	+$43.15	50% 7748-7766 (15514)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 53¢	$45.05	$85	+$39.95	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 97¢	$85.35	$87.99	+$2.64	77% 9340-2782 (12122)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$41.32	$50.93	+$9.61	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 9.8¢	$13.47	—	-$13.47	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 97¢	$59.17	$61	+$1.83	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 34¢	$20.4	$60	+$39.6	51% 19925-19088 (39013)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$26.18	—	-$26.18	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$27	—	-$19.64	65% 22438-12338 (34776)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12	—	-$12	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 60¢	$13.2	$22	+$8.8	34% 18664-35664 (54328)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 46¢	$9.2	$20	+$10.8	57% 7715-5914 (13629)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 76¢	$14.99	$19.73	+$4.74	66% 111894-58227 (170121)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.45	$5.1	+$2.65	58% 60303-44021 (104324)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$760.81

Value

$807.25

PnL

+$46.44

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Up$479.1359.4¢+$328.12

Down$281.6850.9¢-$281.68

hoodquant

Invested

$1,137.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.06

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$274.77

Value

$308

PnL

+$33.23

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

Both legs:

Up$165.4453.7¢+$142.56

Down$109.3340.6¢-$109.33

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$263.97

Value

$260.23

PnL

-$3.74

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Both legs:

Up$204.1378.4¢+$56.1

Down$59.8425¢-$59.84

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$251.21

Value

$298.14

PnL

+$46.92

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Up$18963.4¢+$109.14

Down$62.2147.7¢-$62.21

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$110.89

Value

$212.49

PnL

+$101.6

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$116.95

Value

$149.5

PnL

+$32.55

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

Both legs:

Up$84.2256.3¢+$65.28

Down$32.7367.2¢-$32.73

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$53.54

Value

$50

PnL

-$3.54

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

Both legs:

Down$35.5426.1¢-$35.54

Up$1836¢+$32

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$108.06

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$42.02

Record

56%

57788-44629 (102417)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$82.19

Value

$84.99

PnL

+$2.8

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Up$51.560.6¢+$33.49

Down$30.6840.9¢-$30.68

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.78

Value

—

PnL

-$64.78

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$51.85

Value

$94.99

PnL

+$43.15

Record

50%

7748-7766 (15514)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$45.05

Value

$85

PnL

+$39.95

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$85.35

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$2.64

Record

77%

9340-2782 (12122)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$41.32

Value

$50.93

PnL

+$9.61

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.47

Value

—

PnL

-$13.47

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$59.17

Value

$61

PnL

+$1.83

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$39.6

Record

51%

19925-19088 (39013)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.18

Value

—

PnL

-$26.18

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27

Value

—

PnL

-$19.64

Record

65%

22438-12338 (34776)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$22

PnL

+$8.8

Record

34%

18664-35664 (54328)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$10.8

Record

57%

7715-5914 (13629)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.99

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$4.74

Record

66%

111894-58227 (170121)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$2.65

Record

58%

60303-44021 (104324)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5e3fe4aa...c2545a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793285700

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$46.44

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$26.06

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $212.49

+$101.6

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $150.08

std0

Arbitrage — excluded