Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Up 67%
3 arb excluded
$5.1K
$2.0K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 27 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.24 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $983.16 | $993.09 | +$9.93 | 56% 29299-23029 (52328) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 90.4¢ | $767.49 | $812.39 | +$44.9 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 73.9¢ | $426.9 | $367.12 | -$59.78 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Downavg 66.5¢ | $303.11 | — | -$303.11 | 34% 18664-35664 (54328) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 69.6¢ | $159.53 | $210 | +$50.48 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 70.9¢ | $132.96 | $182.11 | +$49.15 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 30.6¢ | $206.31 | $154.36 | -$51.95 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.5¢ | $101.03 | $154.36 | +$53.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.6¢ | $105.27 | — | -$105.27 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $197.95 | $111.03 | -$86.92 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.7¢ | $152.72 | — | -$152.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.7¢ | $45.23 | $111.03 | +$65.8 | |
ST std0 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $179.47 | $175 | -$4.47 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $161.42 | $140.25 | -$21.18 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 99¢ | $112.87 | $112 | -$0.87 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $110.61 | $75.02 | -$35.59 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $37.51 | $75.02 | +$37.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.7¢ | $73.1 | — | -$73.1 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $52.19 | $139.99 | +$87.79 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $59 | — | -$59 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | 51% 17007-16559 (33566) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $45.33 | $50.68 | +$5.35 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $45.09 | — | -$45.09 | 59% 62118-43235 (105353) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $16 | $55.56 | +$39.56 | 58% 12551-9211 (21762) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $15.43 | $31.14 | +$15.71 | 58% 50902-37035 (87937) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $26.7 | — | -$26.7 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $10.24 | — | -$10.24 | 56% 57788-44629 (102417) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $7.7 | $22 | +$14.3 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $3.6 | $8.37 | +$4.77 | 66% 111894-58227 (170121) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.7¢ | $9.53 | — | -$9.53 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
Invested
$1,409.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.24
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$983.16
Value
$993.09
PnL
+$9.93
Record
56%
29299-23029 (52328)
machinelearnedInvested
$767.49
Value
$812.39
PnL
+$44.9
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$426.9
Value
$367.12
PnL
-$59.78
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Invested
$303.11
Value
—
PnL
-$303.11
Record
34%
18664-35664 (54328)
FairValueMachineInvested
$159.53
Value
$210
PnL
+$50.48
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Invested
$132.96
Value
$182.11
PnL
+$49.15
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Invested
$206.31
Value
$154.36
PnL
-$51.95
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.95
Value
$111.03
PnL
-$86.92
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
Both legs:
Invested
$179.47
Value
$175
PnL
-$4.47
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
Invested
$161.42
Value
$140.25
PnL
-$21.18
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$112.87
Value
$112
PnL
-$0.87
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$110.61
Value
$75.02
PnL
-$35.59
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.19
Value
$139.99
PnL
+$87.79
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
Invested
$59
Value
—
PnL
-$59
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$75
Value
—
PnL
-$75
Record
51%
17007-16559 (33566)
Invested
$45.33
Value
$50.68
PnL
+$5.35
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
Invested
$45.09
Value
—
PnL
-$45.09
Record
59%
62118-43235 (105353)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$16
Value
$55.56
PnL
+$39.56
Record
58%
12551-9211 (21762)
Invested
$15.43
Value
$31.14
PnL
+$15.71
Record
58%
50902-37035 (87937)
Invested
$26.7
Value
—
PnL
-$26.7
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$10.24
Value
—
PnL
-$10.24
Record
56%
57788-44629 (102417)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$22
PnL
+$14.3
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$4.77
Record
66%
111894-58227 (170121)
Invested
$9.53
Value
—
PnL
-$9.53
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
THG.
Up — $993.09
machinelearned
Up — $812.39
GoodFallen
Up — $367.12
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $210
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $182.11
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
Up — $175