Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 42%
4 arb excluded
$10.0K
-$731.9
Smart Money Signal
10 of 22 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Down | $8.0K | $8.0K | +$30.41 | 56% 3634-2823 (6457) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 36.5¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 35% 108-204 (312) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $432.63 | $437 | +$4.37 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $388.96 | $408.98 | +$20.02 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $204.87 | $408.98 | +$204.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.4¢ | $184.09 | — | -$184.09 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $255.55 | $222.44 | -$33.11 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.4¢ | $132.85 | — | -$132.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $122.69 | $222.44 | +$99.75 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $156.32 | $162.57 | +$6.25 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
ST std0 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $104.25 | $135.62 | +$31.36 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 39.5¢ | $37.05 | $87.16 | +$50.11 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.7¢ | $30.84 | — | -$30.84 | 59% 62118-43235 (105353) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $84.11 | $107 | +$22.89 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $52.18 | $107 | +$54.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $31.93 | — | -$31.93 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $66.66 | $55 | -$11.66 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $42.81 | — | -$42.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.4¢ | $23.85 | $55 | +$31.15 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 65.3¢ | $98 | $150 | +$52 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $48 | $90 | +$42 | 50% 7748-7766 (15514) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.8¢ | $9.36 | — | -$9.36 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.8¢ | $20.6 | — | -$20.6 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $27.05 | $49.18 | +$22.13 | 58% 60303-44021 (104324) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $24.44 | $23.45 | +$13.32 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $27.96 | $43 | +$15.04 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $13.64 | $25.44 | +$11.8 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 51% 19925-19088 (39013) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $4.45 | — | -$4.45 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111894-58227 (170121) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 428-655 (1083) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $2.59 | — | -$2.52 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
Invested
$7,975
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$30.41
Record
56%
3634-2823 (6457)
Invested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
35%
108-204 (312)
Invested
$432.63
Value
$437
PnL
+$4.37
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$388.96
Value
$408.98
PnL
+$20.02
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$255.55
Value
$222.44
PnL
-$33.11
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Both legs:
Invested
$156.32
Value
$162.57
PnL
+$6.25
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
Invested
$104.25
Value
$135.62
PnL
+$31.36
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
Invested
$37.05
Value
$87.16
PnL
+$50.11
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Invested
$30.84
Value
—
PnL
-$30.84
Record
59%
62118-43235 (105353)
Invested
$84.11
Value
$107
PnL
+$22.89
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.66
Value
$55
PnL
-$11.66
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$98
Value
$150
PnL
+$52
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$48
Value
$90
PnL
+$42
Record
50%
7748-7766 (15514)
Invested
$9.36
Value
—
PnL
-$9.36
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$20.6
Value
—
PnL
-$20.6
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$27.05
Value
$49.18
PnL
+$22.13
Record
58%
60303-44021 (104324)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$23.45
PnL
+$13.32
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.96
Value
$43
PnL
+$15.04
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$13.64
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$11.8
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
19925-19088 (39013)
Invested
$4.45
Value
—
PnL
-$4.45
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111894-58227 (170121)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
428-655 (1083)
Invested
$2.59
Value
—
PnL
-$2.52
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $8.0K
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $437
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $162.57
std0
Down — $135.62
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $87.16
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded