Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 41%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,027

Combined PnL+$831.47

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,045

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$5.92	56% 3634-2823 (6457)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 43.2¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 44¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$688.9	$695.86	+$6.96	56% 29299-23029 (52328)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 26.1¢	$600	—	-$600	35% 108-204 (312)
TE Telawin	Downavg 45¢	$500	$1.1K	+$611.11	51% 339-330 (669)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$330.99	$324.45	-$6.54	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$210	$324.45	+$114.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$120.99	—	-$120.99
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 71.8¢	$270.45	$239.98	-$30.47	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.8¢	$172.19	$239.98	+$67.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.1¢	$98.26	—	-$98.26
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$216.51	$224.6	+$8.09	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.4¢	$173.75	$224.6	+$50.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.6¢	$42.76	—	-$42.76
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 64.3¢	$168.99	$216.01	+$47.02	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$166.6	—	-$166.6	34% 18664-35664 (54328)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$145.47	$114.15	-$31.32	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$90.77	—	-$90.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$54.7	$114.15	+$59.45
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.8¢	$135.2	$151.65	+$16.46	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 29.2¢	$100.62	—	-$100.62	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$110.88	$112	+$1.12	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$42	—	-$42	48% 23186-25395 (48581)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 26.7¢	$108	—	-$108	58% 12551-9211 (21762)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 81¢	$121.55	$150.06	+$28.51	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 52¢	$75.1	$140	+$64.9	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$83.27	$70.76	-$12.5	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$44.3	$70.76	+$26.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$38.96	—	-$38.96
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$42.81	$39.33	-$3.48	66% 111894-58227 (170121)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 46.3¢	$65.35	—	-$65.35	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$39.15	$46.15	+$7	57% 7715-5914 (13629)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 45¢	$22.5	$49.99	+$27.5	50% 7748-7766 (15514)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 77¢	$25.36	$21.27	-$4.09	52% 89866-84321 (174187)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$6,233.82

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$5.92

Record

56%

3634-2823 (6457)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$1,035.28

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$1,288.24

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

THG.

Down

Invested

$688.9

Value

$695.86

PnL

+$6.96

Record

56%

29299-23029 (52328)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$600

Value

—

PnL

-$600

Record

35%

108-204 (312)

Telawin

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$611.11

Record

51%

339-330 (669)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$330.99

Value

$324.45

PnL

-$6.54

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Down$21064.7¢+$114.44

Up$120.9930.2¢-$120.99

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$270.45

Value

$239.98

PnL

-$30.47

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Both legs:

Down$172.1971.8¢+$67.79

Up$98.2632.1¢-$98.26

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$216.51

Value

$224.6

PnL

+$8.09

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Down$173.7577.4¢+$50.85

Up$42.7622.6¢-$42.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$168.99

Value

$216.01

PnL

+$47.02

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$166.6

Value

—

PnL

-$166.6

Record

34%

18664-35664 (54328)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$145.47

Value

$114.15

PnL

-$31.32

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

Both legs:

Up$90.7749.1¢-$90.77

Down$54.747.9¢+$59.45

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$135.2

Value

$151.65

PnL

+$16.46

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$100.62

Value

—

PnL

-$100.62

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$110.88

Value

$112

PnL

+$1.12

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

—

PnL

-$42

Record

48%

23186-25395 (48581)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$108

Value

—

PnL

-$108

Record

58%

12551-9211 (21762)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$121.55

Value

$150.06

PnL

+$28.51

Record

56%

57788-44629 (102417)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$75.1

Value

$140

PnL

+$64.9

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.27

Value

$70.76

PnL

-$12.5

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Down$44.362.6¢+$26.46

Up$38.9635.8¢-$38.96

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$42.81

Value

$39.33

PnL

-$3.48

Record

66%

111894-58227 (170121)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$65.35

Value

—

PnL

-$65.35

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$39.15

Value

$46.15

PnL

+$7

Record

57%

7715-5914 (13629)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$27.5

Record

50%

7748-7766 (15514)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$25.36

Value

$21.27

PnL

-$4.09

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaef2333f...f511e6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793284800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $6.2K

+$5.92

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.0K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.3K

THG.

Down — $695.86

+$6.96

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Up — $0

-$600

Telawin

Down — $1.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $216.01

+$47.02

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