Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$51.08

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,632

Combined PnL+$231.8

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL-$282.88

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$25.53	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$826.34	$989.33	+$162.99	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$559.96	$989.33	+$429.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$266.38	—	-$266.38
NIULAI4	Upavg 86.8¢	$589.35	$590.76	+$1.42	77% 9340-2782 (12122)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 75.4¢	$611.57	$575.42	-$36.15	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.2¢	$501.63	$481.51	-$20.12	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 71.6¢	$460.96	$453.79	-$7.17	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$441.14	$422.72	-$18.43	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$248.54	$422.72	+$174.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$192.6	—	-$192.6
Atomforge	Upavg 97.1¢	$301.84	$310.94	+$9.1	65% 3990-2153 (6143)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.7¢	$195.34	$308.55	+$113.21	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 89.4¢	$238.23	$223.05	-$15.18	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
machinelearned	Upavg 69.1¢	$114.08	$162.9	+$48.82	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$151.54	$157.4	+$5.86	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$102.98	$157.4	+$54.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$48.56	—	-$48.56
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$187.56	$100.08	-$87.48	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$117.86	—	-$117.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$69.7	$100.08	+$30.38
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 1.9¢	$11.63	—	-$1.22	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 28.8¢	$48.45	—	-$48.45	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 76.3¢	$109.4	$143.43	+$34.03	57% 10267-7696 (17963)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 42.8¢	$15.46	$22.65	+$7.19	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$80.21	—	-$80.21	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$59.88	$70.15	+$10.27	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$39.68	$70.15	+$30.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$20.2	—	-$20.2
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 80¢	$48	$60	+$12	51% 19925-19088 (39013)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$70.57	$30.32	-$40.25	51% 17007-16559 (33566)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$10.57	$30.32	+$19.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$60	—	-$60
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 45¢	$37.85	$84.12	+$46.27	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$49.09	$48.89	-$0.2	58% 60303-44021 (104324)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$36.02	—	-$36.02	74% 102321-36358 (138679)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$42.49	—	-$25.69	65% 22438-12338 (34776)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,096.47

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$25.53

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$826.34

Value

$989.33

PnL

+$162.99

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Up$559.9656.6¢+$429.37

Down$266.3836.8¢-$266.38

NIULAI4

Invested

$589.35

Value

$590.76

PnL

+$1.42

Record

77%

9340-2782 (12122)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$611.57

Value

$575.42

PnL

-$36.15

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

ply-pm0

Invested

$501.63

Value

$481.51

PnL

-$20.12

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$460.96

Value

$453.79

PnL

-$7.17

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$441.14

Value

$422.72

PnL

-$18.43

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Up$248.5458.8¢+$174.18

Down$192.643.7¢-$192.6

Atomforge

Invested

$301.84

Value

$310.94

PnL

+$9.1

Record

65%

3990-2153 (6143)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$195.34

Value

$308.55

PnL

+$113.21

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$238.23

Value

$223.05

PnL

-$15.18

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

machinelearned

Invested

$114.08

Value

$162.9

PnL

+$48.82

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$151.54

Value

$157.4

PnL

+$5.86

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Up$102.9865.4¢+$54.42

Down$48.5629¢-$48.56

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.56

Value

$100.08

PnL

-$87.48

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

Both legs:

Down$117.8660.7¢-$117.86

Up$69.769.6¢+$30.38

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.63

Value

—

PnL

-$1.22

Record

61%

94436-59427 (153863)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.45

Value

—

PnL

-$48.45

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$109.4

Value

$143.43

PnL

+$34.03

Record

57%

10267-7696 (17963)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$15.46

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$7.19

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.21

Value

—

PnL

-$80.21

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$70.15

PnL

+$10.27

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

Both legs:

Up$39.6856.6¢+$30.47

Down$20.243.6¢-$20.2

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$60

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

19925-19088 (39013)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.57

Value

$30.32

PnL

-$40.25

Record

51%

17007-16559 (33566)

Both legs:

Up$10.5734.9¢+$19.75

Down$6060¢-$60

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$37.85

Value

$84.12

PnL

+$46.27

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$49.09

Value

$48.89

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

60303-44021 (104324)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.02

Value

—

PnL

-$36.02

Record

74%

102321-36358 (138679)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.49

Value

—

PnL

-$25.69

Record

65%

22438-12338 (34776)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x62b42780...bbe2f7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793283300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $2.1K

+$25.53

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$162.99

NIULAI4

Up — $590.76

+$1.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $575.42

-$36.15

ply-pm0

Up — $481.51

-$20.12

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $453.79

-$7.17

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$18.43

Atomforge

Up — $310.94

+$9.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $308.55

+$113.21

MayorMamdani

Up — $223.05

-$15.18

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