Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$249.52

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,946

Combined PnL+$364.69

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares498

Combined PnL-$115.16

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$32.55	74% 102321-36358 (138679)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.82	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$341.5	$367.39	+$25.89	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$227.08	$367.39	+$140.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.4¢	$114.42	—	-$114.42
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 53.9¢	$306.61	$406.45	+$99.85	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$167.94	$159.96	-$7.98	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$107.18	$159.96	+$52.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$60.76	—	-$60.76
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$125.65	$125.53	-$0.13	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$69.73	$125.53	+$55.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$55.93	—	-$55.93
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$137.92	$105.62	-$32.3	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$69.23	$105.62	+$36.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$68.69	—	-$68.69
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 76.5¢	$131.48	$143.22	+$11.73	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
machinelearned	Upavg 37.4¢	$47.92	$128.3	+$80.38	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 60.5¢	$94.07	$100	+$5.93	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$5.08	—	-$5.08	59% 62118-43235 (105353)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$63.64	$91.28	+$27.64	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$78.31	$46.1	-$32.21	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.8¢	$35.88	$46.1	+$10.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$42.43	—	-$42.43
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$57.81	—	-$57.81	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 83¢	$49.8	$60	+$10.2	51% 19925-19088 (39013)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$27.82	$55.9	+$28.07	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$37.93	$48.97	+$11.04	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.19	—	-$1.19	46% 38045-44903 (82948)
RO Rock.San<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$31.22	$31.25	+$0.03	89% 11926-1414 (13340)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$48.06	—	-$48.06	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 96.7¢	$39.39	$34.35	-$3.52	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 97¢	$19.31	$12	-$7.31	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$22.55	$44	+$21.45	57% 7715-5914 (13629)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$22.55	$44	+$21.45	12% 18220-132943 (151163)
PA Parad0XCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	—	-$2.8	56% 2169-1698 (3867)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,222.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.55

Record

74%

102321-36358 (138679)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,467.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.82

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$341.5

Value

$367.39

PnL

+$25.89

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

Both legs:

Up$227.0861.8¢+$140.31

Down$114.4231.4¢-$114.42

GoodFallen

Invested

$306.61

Value

$406.45

PnL

+$99.85

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$167.94

Value

$159.96

PnL

-$7.98

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Up$107.1867¢+$52.78

Down$60.7632.2¢-$60.76

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$125.65

Value

$125.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Both legs:

Up$69.7355.5¢+$55.8

Down$55.9326.2¢-$55.93

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$137.92

Value

$105.62

PnL

-$32.3

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

Both legs:

Up$69.2365.5¢+$36.39

Down$68.6947.3¢-$68.69

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$131.48

Value

$143.22

PnL

+$11.73

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

machinelearned

Invested

$47.92

Value

$128.3

PnL

+$80.38

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$94.07

Value

$100

PnL

+$5.93

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.08

Value

—

PnL

-$5.08

Record

59%

62118-43235 (105353)

13897651<$100

Invested

$63.64

Value

$91.28

PnL

+$27.64

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$78.31

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$32.21

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

Both legs:

Up$35.8877.8¢+$10.23

Down$42.4341.2¢-$42.43

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.81

Value

—

PnL

-$57.81

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$10.2

Record

51%

19925-19088 (39013)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$27.82

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$28.07

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$37.93

Value

$48.97

PnL

+$11.04

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.19

Value

—

PnL

-$1.19

Record

46%

38045-44903 (82948)

Rock.San<$100

Invested

$31.22

Value

$31.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

89%

11926-1414 (13340)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.06

Value

—

PnL

-$48.06

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$39.39

Value

$34.35

PnL

-$3.52

Record

61%

94436-59427 (153863)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$19.31

Value

$12

PnL

-$7.31

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$44

PnL

+$21.45

Record

57%

7715-5914 (13629)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$44

PnL

+$21.45

Record

12%

18220-132943 (151163)

Parad0XCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

—

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

2169-1698 (3867)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9342234d...5e15e8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793283000

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $3.3K

+$32.55

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$14.82

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$25.89

GoodFallen

Up — $406.45

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $143.22

+$11.73

machinelearned

Up — $128.3

+$80.38

FairValueMachine

Up — $100

+$5.93

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