Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$31.63

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 18 top traders (50%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,674

Combined PnL+$210.57

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares819

Combined PnL-$242.2

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.41	56% 29299-23029 (52328)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$150.5	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$925.35	$1.4K	+$465.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$616.19	—	-$616.19
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.4¢	$738.7	$765.42	+$26.71	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$485.36	$765.42	+$280.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$253.34	—	-$253.34
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$413.15	$381.51	-$31.64	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$215.98	$381.51	+$165.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$197.16	—	-$197.16
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$446.58	$414.3	-$32.28	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$274.66	$414.3	+$139.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$171.92	—	-$171.92
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$285.99	$399.98	+$113.98	51% 17007-16559 (33566)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$210	$399.98	+$189.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$76	—	-$76
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$314.38	$483.16	+$168.77	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$207.44	$483.16	+$275.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$106.95	—	-$106.95
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$370.4	$293.02	-$77.38	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$205.93	$293.02	+$87.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$164.47	—	-$164.47
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$332.35	$367.85	+$35.51	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$243.59	$367.85	+$124.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$88.75	—	-$88.75
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$249.16	$249.98	+$0.82	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$164.92	$249.98	+$85.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$84.23	—	-$84.23
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 92¢	$247.68	$144	-$103.68	77% 9340-2782 (12122)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.8¢	$115.2	—	-$115.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 92¢	$132.48	$144	+$11.52
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$258.6	$234	-$24.6	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.3¢	$173.93	$234	+$60.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$84.67	—	-$84.67
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$185.78	$143.99	-$41.78	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$107.97	$143.99	+$36.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$77.8	—	-$77.8
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$114.81	$89.02	-$25.8	66% 111894-58227 (170121)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$50.04	—	-$50.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.8¢	$64.78	$89.02	+$24.24
ohioism	Downavg 71¢	$106.56	$150.08	+$43.52	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 32.9¢	$62.2	$127.1	+$64.9	57% 10267-7696 (17963)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$88.47	—	-$88.47	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 16.5¢	$33.1	—	-$33.1	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$62.54	$78	+$15.46	57% 7715-5914 (13629)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$18.81	—	-$18.81	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46¢	$36.8	$80	+$43.2	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$36.04	—	-$36.04	58% 60303-44021 (104324)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$36.47	—	-$36.47	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 72¢	$29.84	$27	-$2.84	12% 18220-132943 (151163)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 84¢	$25.58	$21.74	-$3.84	63% 51591-30353 (81944)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,109.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.41

Record

56%

29299-23029 (52328)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,541.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$150.5

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Down$925.3566.5¢+$465.7

Up$616.1939.2¢-$616.19

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$738.7

Value

$765.42

PnL

+$26.71

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Down$485.3663.4¢+$280.06

Up$253.3434.3¢-$253.34

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$413.15

Value

$381.51

PnL

-$31.64

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Both legs:

Down$215.9856.6¢+$165.53

Up$197.1639.5¢-$197.16

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$446.58

Value

$414.3

PnL

-$32.28

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

Both legs:

Down$274.6666.3¢+$139.64

Up$171.9245.6¢-$171.92

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$285.99

Value

$399.98

PnL

+$113.98

Record

51%

17007-16559 (33566)

Both legs:

Down$21052.5¢+$189.98

Up$7619¢-$76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$314.38

Value

$483.16

PnL

+$168.77

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

Both legs:

Down$207.4442.9¢+$275.72

Up$106.9546¢-$106.95

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$370.4

Value

$293.02

PnL

-$77.38

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

Both legs:

Down$205.9370.3¢+$87.09

Up$164.4745.3¢-$164.47

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$332.35

Value

$367.85

PnL

+$35.51

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

Both legs:

Down$243.5966.2¢+$124.26

Up$88.7542.1¢-$88.75

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$249.16

Value

$249.98

PnL

+$0.82

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Down$164.9266¢+$85.06

Up$84.2333¢-$84.23

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$247.68

Value

$144

PnL

-$103.68

Record

77%

9340-2782 (12122)

Both legs:

Up$115.227.8¢-$115.2

Down$132.4892¢+$11.52

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$258.6

Value

$234

PnL

-$24.6

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

Both legs:

Down$173.9374.3¢+$60.07

Up$84.6741.2¢-$84.67

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.78

Value

$143.99

PnL

-$41.78

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

Both legs:

Down$107.9775¢+$36.02

Up$77.860.2¢-$77.8

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.81

Value

$89.02

PnL

-$25.8

Record

66%

111894-58227 (170121)

Both legs:

Up$50.0428.2¢-$50.04

Down$64.7872.8¢+$24.24

ohioism

Down

Invested

$106.56

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$43.52

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$62.2

Value

$127.1

PnL

+$64.9

Record

57%

10267-7696 (17963)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$88.47

Value

—

PnL

-$88.47

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$33.1

Value

—

PnL

-$33.1

Record

56%

57788-44629 (102417)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$62.54

Value

$78

PnL

+$15.46

Record

57%

7715-5914 (13629)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

—

PnL

-$18.81

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$36.8

Value

$80

PnL

+$43.2

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$36.04

Value

—

PnL

-$36.04

Record

58%

60303-44021 (104324)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$36.47

Value

—

PnL

-$36.47

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$29.84

Value

$27

PnL

-$2.84

Record

12%

18220-132943 (151163)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$25.58

Value

$21.74

PnL

-$3.84

Record

63%

51591-30353 (81944)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 18 top traders (50%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe7de4622...ccbd08

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793282700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded