Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$29.16

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares12,025

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,019

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rock.San	Downavg 99.9¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$5	89% 11926-1414 (13340)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.38	56% 29299-23029 (52328)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.8¢	$866.75	$1.7K	+$791.68	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$116.86	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$702.25	$1.2K	+$465.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$348.95	—	-$348.95
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 31.3¢	$579.05	—	-$579.05	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$783.9	$800	+$16.1	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$796.71	$822.7	+$25.99	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$525.99	$822.7	+$296.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$270.72	—	-$270.72
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.6¢	$624.56	$677.26	+$52.7	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$463.38	$615.02	+$151.63	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$403.46	$615.02	+$211.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$59.92	—	-$59.92
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$254.01	$250.27	-$3.74	77% 9340-2782 (12122)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$166.25	$250.27	+$84.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$87.76	—	-$87.76
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 34.6¢	$211.1	—	-$211.1	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 24.8¢	$144.01	$93.43	-$50.21	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.8¢	$73.13	—	-$73
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.6¢	$70.64	$93.43	+$22.79
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 66.1¢	$132.68	$190.99	+$58.31	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 44.7¢	$111.84	—	-$111.84	56% 57788-44629 (102417)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$137.44	$129.41	-$8.04	67% 53201-26615 (79816)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$87.86	$129.41	+$41.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$49.59	—	-$49.59
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 34.7¢	$103.13	$67.91	-$35.22	66% 111894-58227 (170121)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$59.56	—	-$59.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$43.57	$67.91	+$24.34
ohioism	Downavg 81¢	$121.56	$150.08	+$28.52	64% 39890-22786 (62676)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$112.03	$67.45	-$44.58	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$62.64	—	-$62.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$49.38	$67.45	+$18.07
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$145	$100	-$45	51% 17007-16559 (33566)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$84	$100	+$16
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$61	—	-$61
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$85.25	$74.94	-$10.31	66% 125199-64428 (189627)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$51.73	$74.94	+$23.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.6¢	$33.52	—	-$33.52
13 13897651	Downavg 57.7¢	$70.83	$117.98	+$47.15	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
LI Little-big	Downavg 55¢	$55	$100	+$45	34% 18664-35664 (54328)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$44.87	$45	+$0.13	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$26.9	—	-$26.9	58% 12551-9211 (21762)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 88.5¢	$45.32	$51.2	+$5.88	46% 38045-44903 (82948)

Rock.San

Down

Invested

$4,996.58

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

89%

11926-1414 (13340)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,106.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.38

Record

56%

29299-23029 (52328)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$866.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$791.68

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,051.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$116.86

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Down$702.2560.1¢+$465.81

Up$348.9538.6¢-$348.95

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$579.05

Value

—

PnL

-$579.05

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$783.9

Value

$800

PnL

+$16.1

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$796.71

Value

$822.7

PnL

+$25.99

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Down$525.9963.9¢+$296.71

Up$270.7239¢-$270.72

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$624.56

Value

$677.26

PnL

+$52.7

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$463.38

Value

$615.02

PnL

+$151.63

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

Both legs:

Down$403.4665.6¢+$211.55

Up$59.9221.4¢-$59.92

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.01

Value

$250.27

PnL

-$3.74

Record

77%

9340-2782 (12122)

Both legs:

Down$166.2566.4¢+$84.02

Up$87.7640.6¢-$87.76

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$211.1

Value

—

PnL

-$211.1

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$144.01

Value

$93.43

PnL

-$50.21

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

Both legs:

Up$73.1324.8¢-$73

Down$70.6475.6¢+$22.79

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$132.68

Value

$190.99

PnL

+$58.31

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$111.84

Value

—

PnL

-$111.84

Record

56%

57788-44629 (102417)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$137.44

Value

$129.41

PnL

-$8.04

Record

67%

53201-26615 (79816)

Both legs:

Down$87.8667.9¢+$41.55

Up$49.5943.3¢-$49.59

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$103.13

Value

$67.91

PnL

-$35.22

Record

66%

111894-58227 (170121)

Both legs:

Up$59.5634.7¢-$59.56

Down$43.5764.2¢+$24.34

ohioism

Down

Invested

$121.56

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$28.52

Record

64%

39890-22786 (62676)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$112.03

Value

$67.45

PnL

-$44.58

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

Both legs:

Up$62.6438.9¢-$62.64

Down$49.3873.2¢+$18.07

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145

Value

$100

PnL

-$45

Record

51%

17007-16559 (33566)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.25

Value

$74.94

PnL

-$10.31

Record

66%

125199-64428 (189627)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.83

Value

$117.98

PnL

+$47.15

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$55

Value

$100

PnL

+$45

Record

34%

18664-35664 (54328)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$44.87

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$26.9

Value

—

PnL

-$26.9

Record

58%

12551-9211 (21762)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$45.32

Value

$51.2

PnL

+$5.88

Record

46%

38045-44903 (82948)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x65774422...cb47d0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793282400

Traders in this Market

Rock.San

Down — $5.0K

+$5

THG.

Down — $3.1K

+$31.38

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.7K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $800

+$16.1

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$25.99

ply-pm0

Down — $677.26

+$52.7

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded