Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 76%
3 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$570.83
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 44.3¢ | $735.89 | — | -$735.89 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$34.03 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $194.29 | $208.2 | +$13.91 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.6¢ | $71.96 | — | -$71.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.8¢ | $122.33 | $208.2 | +$85.87 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 55.1¢ | $162.85 | $191.88 | +$29.02 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.1¢ | $105.77 | $191.88 | +$86.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.8¢ | $57.09 | — | -$57.09 | |
13 13897651 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $147.95 | $260.1 | +$112.15 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $92.96 | $157.53 | +$64.56 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.8¢ | $81.65 | $157.53 | +$75.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.3¢ | $11.31 | — | -$11.31 | |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $170.4 | $203.96 | +$33.56 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.1¢ | $62.16 | — | -$62.16 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $43.9 | $40 | -$3.9 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $43.2 | $60.69 | +$17.49 | 51% 19925-19088 (39013) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $49.41 | $54.9 | +$5.49 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $22.78 | $29.45 | +$6.67 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.8¢ | $10.53 | — | -$10.53 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 63.2¢ | $18.16 | $28.76 | +$10.59 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $14.36 | $14.37 | +$0.01 | 59% 62118-43235 (105353) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $14.25 | $27.15 | +$12.9 | 66% 125199-64428 (189627) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $18.98 | $26 | +$7.02 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $12.59 | $7.06 | +$7.26 | 65% 22438-12338 (34776) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $5 | +$1.65 | 66% 111894-58227 (170121) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $16.08 | $0.33 | +$10.81 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3634-2823 (6457) |
Invested
$735.89
Value
—
PnL
-$735.89
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Invested
$1,134.71
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$34.03
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
Invested
$194.29
Value
$208.2
PnL
+$13.91
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.85
Value
$191.88
PnL
+$29.02
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.95
Value
$260.1
PnL
+$112.15
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$92.96
Value
$157.53
PnL
+$64.56
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$170.4
Value
$203.96
PnL
+$33.56
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
Invested
$62.16
Value
—
PnL
-$62.16
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$43.9
Value
$40
PnL
-$3.9
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$60.69
PnL
+$17.49
Record
51%
19925-19088 (39013)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$54.9
PnL
+$5.49
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Invested
$22.78
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$6.67
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
Invested
$10.53
Value
—
PnL
-$10.53
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.16
Value
$28.76
PnL
+$10.59
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$14.36
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
62118-43235 (105353)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$27.15
PnL
+$12.9
Record
66%
125199-64428 (189627)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$26
PnL
+$7.02
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
Invested
$12.59
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$7.26
Record
65%
22438-12338 (34776)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.65
Record
66%
111894-58227 (170121)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$10.81
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3634-2823 (6457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Up — $260.1
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
Up — $203.96
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
Up — $40
devonpoll
Up — $60.69