Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 65%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
$104.53
Smart Money Signal
13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.7¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$65.76 | 93% 22987-1751 (24738) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $286.5 | $323.66 | +$37.16 | 46% 38045-44903 (82948) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 85.8¢ | $143.47 | $167.29 | +$23.82 | 55% 44511-37010 (81521) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $115.52 | $179.12 | +$63.6 | 59% 6645-4619 (11264) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $95.39 | $99.99 | +$4.61 | 67% 53201-26615 (79816) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 20.2¢ | $81.2 | $65.56 | -$15.64 | 56% 13658-10876 (24534) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.3¢ | $40.21 | $65.56 | +$25.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.2¢ | $40.99 | — | -$40.99 | |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 49¢ | $84.79 | $173.04 | +$88.25 | 58% 50902-37035 (87937) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $44.95 | — | -$44.95 | 57% 11898-8892 (20790) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 19.9¢ | $56.56 | — | -$56.56 | 58% 37589-26837 (64426) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $52.05 | $51.25 | -$0.8 | 49% 5112-5267 (10379) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $54.27 | $55.67 | +$1.4 | 60% 12097-7981 (20078) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.5¢ | $30.7 | — | -$30.7 | 57% 7715-5914 (13629) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93.3¢ | $37.81 | $40.54 | +$2.73 | 66% 125199-64428 (189627) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $40.77 | $48.61 | +$7.84 | 56% 12372-9545 (21917) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $21.18 | $21.34 | +$0.16 | 55% 7313-5987 (13300) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $13.6 | — | -$13.6 | 57% 70359-53462 (123821) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.1¢ | $37.11 | — | -$37.11 | 55% 8533-6963 (15496) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96.3¢ | $95.19 | $7 | +$0.58 | 61% 94436-59427 (153863) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 23186-25395 (48581) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $3.59 | $4.86 | +$1.26 | 40% 428-655 (1083) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.9¢ | $2.91 | — | -$2.91 | 52% 89866-84321 (174187) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3634-2823 (6457) |
Invested
$2,783.24
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$65.76
Record
93%
22987-1751 (24738)
pspspsps5Invested
$286.5
Value
$323.66
PnL
+$37.16
Record
46%
38045-44903 (82948)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$143.47
Value
$167.29
PnL
+$23.82
Record
55%
44511-37010 (81521)
Invested
$115.52
Value
$179.12
PnL
+$63.6
Record
59%
6645-4619 (11264)
Invested
$95.39
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$4.61
Record
67%
53201-26615 (79816)
Invested
$81.2
Value
$65.56
PnL
-$15.64
Record
56%
13658-10876 (24534)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.79
Value
$173.04
PnL
+$88.25
Record
58%
50902-37035 (87937)
Invested
$44.95
Value
—
PnL
-$44.95
Record
57%
11898-8892 (20790)
Invested
$56.56
Value
—
PnL
-$56.56
Record
58%
37589-26837 (64426)
Invested
$52.05
Value
$51.25
PnL
-$0.8
Record
49%
5112-5267 (10379)
Invested
$54.27
Value
$55.67
PnL
+$1.4
Record
60%
12097-7981 (20078)
Invested
$30.7
Value
—
PnL
-$30.7
Record
57%
7715-5914 (13629)
Invested
$37.81
Value
$40.54
PnL
+$2.73
Record
66%
125199-64428 (189627)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$40.77
Value
$48.61
PnL
+$7.84
Record
56%
12372-9545 (21917)
Invested
$21.18
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$0.16
Record
55%
7313-5987 (13300)
Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.6
Record
57%
70359-53462 (123821)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$37.11
Value
—
PnL
-$37.11
Record
55%
8533-6963 (15496)
Invested
$95.19
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.58
Record
61%
94436-59427 (153863)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
23186-25395 (48581)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$1.26
Record
40%
428-655 (1083)
Invested
$2.91
Value
—
PnL
-$2.91
Record
52%
89866-84321 (174187)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3634-2823 (6457)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $2.8K
pspspsps5
Up — $323.66
MayorMamdani
Up — $167.29
13897651
Up — $179.12
std0
Up — $99.99
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
Up — $173.04
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $51.25