Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 27 top traders (48%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,701

Combined PnL+$250.48

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,428

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.32	56% 29299-23029 (52328)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.7¢	$960.91	$983.3	+$22.39	93% 22987-1751 (24738)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$779.38	$469.02	-$310.36	58% 37589-26837 (64426)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$555.47	—	-$555.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$223.9	$469.02	+$245.12
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 97¢	$1.1K	$764.62	-$286.4	55% 48224-39763 (87987)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$309.34	—	-$309.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 97¢	$741.68	$764.62	+$22.94
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 39.3¢	$535.75	—	-$535.75	58% 50902-37035 (87937)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$633.68	$611.73	-$21.96	49% 5112-5267 (10379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.2¢	$84.18	—	-$84.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.8¢	$549.5	$611.73	+$62.22
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$532.74	$495.36	-$37.38	56% 13658-10876 (24534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$186	—	-$186
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$346.74	$495.36	+$148.62
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 23.6¢	$212.41	—	-$212.41	48% 23186-25395 (48581)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 89.8¢	$602.36	$670.86	+$68.5	57% 7715-5914 (13629)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$338.8	$372.55	+$33.75	55% 8533-6963 (15496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.2¢	$325	$372.55	+$47.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.8¢	$13.8	—	-$13.8
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$277.69	$177.6	-$100.09	56% 12372-9545 (21917)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$140.83	—	-$140.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.1¢	$136.85	$177.6	+$40.75
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 48.7¢	$219	—	-$219	34% 18664-35664 (54328)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 8.8¢	$60.49	—	-$60.49	77% 9340-2782 (12122)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$145.54	$94.89	-$50.65	57% 11898-8892 (20790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$86.54	—	-$86.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$59.01	$94.89	+$35.88
MayorMamdani	Upavg 95.1¢	$299.02	$309.65	+$10.63	55% 44511-37010 (81521)
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 49.3¢	$151.48	—	-$151.48	59% 6645-4619 (11264)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 3.9¢	$10.8	—	-$10.8	62% 43672-26664 (70336)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.2¢	$160.79	$219.96	+$59.17	55% 7313-5987 (13300)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 10.6¢	$23.1	—	-$23.1	57% 70359-53462 (123821)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$5.91	—	-$5.91	52% 89866-84321 (174187)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 4.3¢	$6.69	—	-$6.69	61% 94436-59427 (153863)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$83.95	$95.71	+$11.77	60% 12097-7981 (20078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$68.87	$95.71	+$26.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$15.08	—	-$15.08
pspspsps5	Upavg 87.1¢	$101.24	$116.19	+$14.95	46% 38045-44903 (82948)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 85¢	$89.49	$100	+$10.51	51% 17007-16559 (33566)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$35.74	$52.8	+$17.06	66% 111894-58227 (170121)

THG.

Invested

$3,100.68

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.32

Record

56%

29299-23029 (52328)

hoodquant

Invested

$960.91

Value

$983.3

PnL

+$22.39

Record

93%

22987-1751 (24738)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$779.38

Value

$469.02

PnL

-$310.36

Record

58%

37589-26837 (64426)

Both legs:

Down$555.4748.7¢-$555.47

Up$223.947.7¢+$245.12

almachARB<$100

Invested

$1,051.02

Value

$764.62

PnL

-$286.4

Record

55%

48224-39763 (87987)

Both legs:

Down$309.3438.4¢-$309.34

Up$741.6897¢+$22.94

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$535.75

Value

—

PnL

-$535.75

Record

58%

50902-37035 (87937)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$633.68

Value

$611.73

PnL

-$21.96

Record

49%

5112-5267 (10379)

Both legs:

Down$84.1812.2¢-$84.18

Up$549.589.8¢+$62.22

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$532.74

Value

$495.36

PnL

-$37.38

Record

56%

13658-10876 (24534)

Both legs:

Down$18632.7¢-$186

Up$346.7470¢+$148.62

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$212.41

Value

—

PnL

-$212.41

Record

48%

23186-25395 (48581)

wzbbb

Invested

$602.36

Value

$670.86

PnL

+$68.5

Record

57%

7715-5914 (13629)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$338.8

Value

$372.55

PnL

+$33.75

Record

55%

8533-6963 (15496)

Both legs:

Up$32587.2¢+$47.55

Down$13.85.8¢-$13.8

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$277.69

Value

$177.6

PnL

-$100.09

Record

56%

12372-9545 (21917)

Both legs:

Down$140.8334.7¢-$140.83

Up$136.8577.1¢+$40.75

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$219

Value

—

PnL

-$219

Record

34%

18664-35664 (54328)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.49

Value

—

PnL

-$60.49

Record

77%

9340-2782 (12122)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.54

Value

$94.89

PnL

-$50.65

Record

57%

11898-8892 (20790)

Both legs:

Down$86.5431.7¢-$86.54

Up$59.0162.2¢+$35.88

MayorMamdani

Invested

$299.02

Value

$309.65

PnL

+$10.63

Record

55%

44511-37010 (81521)

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$151.48

Value

—

PnL

-$151.48

Record

59%

6645-4619 (11264)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.8

Value

—

PnL

-$10.8

Record

62%

43672-26664 (70336)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$160.79

Value

$219.96

PnL

+$59.17

Record

55%

7313-5987 (13300)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.1

Value

—

PnL

-$23.1

Record

57%

70359-53462 (123821)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.91

Value

—

PnL

-$5.91

Record

52%

89866-84321 (174187)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.69

Value

—

PnL

-$6.69

Record

61%

94436-59427 (153863)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$83.95

Value

$95.71

PnL

+$11.77

Record

60%

12097-7981 (20078)

Both legs:

Up$68.8772¢+$26.85

Down$15.0834.5¢-$15.08

pspspsps5

Invested

$101.24

Value

$116.19

PnL

+$14.95

Record

46%

38045-44903 (82948)

gansinimen

Invested

$89.49

Value

$100

PnL

+$10.51

Record

51%

17007-16559 (33566)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$35.74

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$17.06

Record

66%

111894-58227 (170121)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 27 top traders (48%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb6c22d1e...ad1bc8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793281200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.1K

+$31.32

hoodquant

Up — $983.3

+$22.39

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Down — $0

-$212.41

wzbbb

Up — $670.86

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded