Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$453.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares12,434

Combined PnL+$520.11

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$66.44

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$6.92	59% 62106-43221 (105327)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.29	56% 29294-23029 (52323)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.8¢	$550.71	$552.94	+$2.22	56% 13648-10871 (24519)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.3¢	$282.37	$375	+$92.63	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$226.02	$195	-$31.02	56% 12362-9540 (21902)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$115.82	—	-$115.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$110.2	$195	+$84.8
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$262.03	$343.09	+$81.06	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$204.8	$343.09	+$138.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$57.23	—	-$57.23
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$219.99	$224.91	+$4.93	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$141.43	$224.91	+$83.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.1¢	$78.55	—	-$78.55
pspspsps5	Downavg 82.6¢	$191.14	$231.38	+$40.24	46% 38032-44873 (82905)
13 13897651	Downavg 54.1¢	$164.92	$272.07	+$107.15	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 75¢	$225	$300	+$75	48% 23173-25375 (48548)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 79.9¢	$96.15	$108.28	+$12.13	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$94.46	$83.69	-$10.77	60% 12087-7973 (20060)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$58.45	$83.69	+$25.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$36.01	—	-$36.01
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$85.73	$82.22	-$3.51	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 61.7¢	$78.87	$123.29	+$44.42	55% 7304-5978 (13282)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$46.41	$58.46	+$12.05	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$58.18	$84.97	+$26.79	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 27.3¢	$56	—	-$56	58% 12548-9209 (21757)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$55.12	$43.32	+$5.87	61% 94398-59400 (153798)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$28.29	$48.56	+$20.27	66% 111875-58207 (170082)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 51¢	$22.95	$45	+$22.05	50% 7745-7761 (15506)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 45¢	$18	$40	+$22	57% 7707-5911 (13618)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91¢	$14.65	$16.1	+$1.45	65% 22398-12314 (34712)
NO Nobey1CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$6	—	-$6	40% 426-649 (1075)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$2.3	—	-$2.3	74% 102310-36356 (138666)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 77¢	$3.86	$5.01	+$1.15	51% 17004-16559 (33563)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$6,911.53

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$6.92

Record

59%

62106-43221 (105327)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,097.71

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.29

Record

56%

29294-23029 (52323)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$550.71

Value

$552.94

PnL

+$2.22

Record

56%

13648-10871 (24519)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$282.37

Value

$375

PnL

+$92.63

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$226.02

Value

$195

PnL

-$31.02

Record

56%

12362-9540 (21902)

Both legs:

Up$115.8236.1¢-$115.82

Down$110.256.5¢+$84.8

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.03

Value

$343.09

PnL

+$81.06

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

Both legs:

Down$204.859.7¢+$138.29

Up$57.2338.7¢-$57.23

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219.99

Value

$224.91

PnL

+$4.93

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

Both legs:

Down$141.4362.9¢+$83.48

Up$78.5523.1¢-$78.55

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$191.14

Value

$231.38

PnL

+$40.24

Record

46%

38032-44873 (82905)

13897651

Down

Invested

$164.92

Value

$272.07

PnL

+$107.15

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$225

Value

$300

PnL

+$75

Record

48%

23173-25375 (48548)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$96.15

Value

$108.28

PnL

+$12.13

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.46

Value

$83.69

PnL

-$10.77

Record

60%

12087-7973 (20060)

Both legs:

Down$58.4569.8¢+$25.24

Up$36.0125.3¢-$36.01

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$85.73

Value

$82.22

PnL

-$3.51

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$78.87

Value

$123.29

PnL

+$44.42

Record

55%

7304-5978 (13282)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$46.41

Value

$58.46

PnL

+$12.05

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$58.18

Value

$84.97

PnL

+$26.79

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$56

Value

—

PnL

-$56

Record

58%

12548-9209 (21757)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$55.12

Value

$43.32

PnL

+$5.87

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$28.29

Value

$48.56

PnL

+$20.27

Record

66%

111875-58207 (170082)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$22.95

Value

$45

PnL

+$22.05

Record

50%

7745-7761 (15506)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$18

Value

$40

PnL

+$22

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$14.65

Value

$16.1

PnL

+$1.45

Record

65%

22398-12314 (34712)

Nobey1CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

40%

426-649 (1075)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

—

PnL

-$2.3

Record

74%

102310-36356 (138666)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$3.86

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$1.15

Record

51%

17004-16559 (33563)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0ad273a7...d6b1c2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793280900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $6.9K

+$6.92

THG.

Down — $3.1K

+$31.29

GoodFallen

Down — $552.94

+$2.22

machinelearned

Down — $375

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $231.38

+$40.24

13897651

Down — $272.07

+$107.15

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $300

+$75

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