Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$188.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 29 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares18,042

Combined PnL+$578.74

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL-$389.96

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$7.83	59% 62106-43221 (105327)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	74% 102310-36356 (138666)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$59.64	93% 22962-1751 (24713)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 91.4¢	$822.16	$900	+$77.84	48% 23173-25375 (48548)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 71.8¢	$895.2	$1.0K	+$152.82	57% 70341-53444 (123785)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 93.5¢	$803.53	$859.39	+$55.86	55% 44484-36982 (81466)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 22.7¢	$560.62	$517.86	-$42.76	55% 50261-40839 (91100)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$242.86	$517.86	+$275
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.7¢	$317.76	—	-$317.76
GA gansinimen	Downavg 71¢	$425.01	$428.15	+$3.14	51% 17004-16559 (33563)
machinelearned	Downavg 85.2¢	$359.2	$370.93	+$11.73	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 78¢	$222.71	$268	+$45.29	57% 7707-5911 (13618)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 70.1¢	$208.8	$239.26	+$30.46	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
LI Little-big	Downavg 72.1¢	$180.18	$249.91	+$69.73	34% 18655-35650 (54305)
pspspsps5	Downavg 79.5¢	$172.18	$216.65	+$44.47	46% 38032-44873 (82905)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 19.4¢	$133.8	—	-$133.8	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 71.2¢	$123.65	$127.25	+$3.6	60% 12087-7973 (20060)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$95.69	—	-$95.69	58% 50888-37027 (87915)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 86.2¢	$117.68	$87.85	-$29.83	55% 7304-5978 (13282)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$83.76	$82.66	-$1.1	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$70.77	$72.55	+$1.78	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$74.23	—	-$74.23	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$54.54	—	-$54.54	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 85¢	$37.4	$44	+$6.6	12% 18218-132938 (151156)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$42.04	$38.84	+$1.34	61% 94398-59400 (153798)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$22.32	$29.7	+$7.38	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
ST std0CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$15.6	—	-$15.6	67% 53194-26607 (79801)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$7,808.19

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$7.83

Record

59%

62106-43221 (105327)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

74%

102310-36356 (138666)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,101.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$59.64

Record

93%

22962-1751 (24713)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$822.16

Value

$900

PnL

+$77.84

Record

48%

23173-25375 (48548)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$895.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$152.82

Record

57%

70341-53444 (123785)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$803.53

Value

$859.39

PnL

+$55.86

Record

55%

44484-36982 (81466)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$560.62

Value

$517.86

PnL

-$42.76

Record

55%

50261-40839 (91100)

Both legs:

Down$242.8646.9¢+$275

Up$317.7622.7¢-$317.76

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$425.01

Value

$428.15

PnL

+$3.14

Record

51%

17004-16559 (33563)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$359.2

Value

$370.93

PnL

+$11.73

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$222.71

Value

$268

PnL

+$45.29

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$208.8

Value

$239.26

PnL

+$30.46

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$180.18

Value

$249.91

PnL

+$69.73

Record

34%

18655-35650 (54305)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$172.18

Value

$216.65

PnL

+$44.47

Record

46%

38032-44873 (82905)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$133.8

Value

—

PnL

-$133.8

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$123.65

Value

$127.25

PnL

+$3.6

Record

60%

12087-7973 (20060)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$95.69

Value

—

PnL

-$95.69

Record

58%

50888-37027 (87915)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$117.68

Value

$87.85

PnL

-$29.83

Record

55%

7304-5978 (13282)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$83.76

Value

$82.66

PnL

-$1.1

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$70.77

Value

$72.55

PnL

+$1.78

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$74.23

Value

—

PnL

-$74.23

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$54.54

Value

—

PnL

-$54.54

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$37.4

Value

$44

PnL

+$6.6

Record

12%

18218-132938 (151156)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$42.04

Value

$38.84

PnL

+$1.34

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$22.32

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$7.38

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

std0CTR<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

—

PnL

-$15.6

Record

67%

53194-26607 (79801)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 29 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xabd8df9c...a243c9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793280600

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $7.8K

+$7.83

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30.01

hoodquant

Down — $2.2K

+$59.64

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $900

+$77.84

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.0K

+$152.82

MayorMamdani

Down — $859.39

+$55.86

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$42.76

gansinimen

Down — $428.15

+$3.14

machinelearned

Down — $370.93

+$11.73

wzbbb

Down — $268

+$45.29

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