Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Up 60%
3 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$36.6
Smart Money Signal
15 of 26 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $838.44 | $849 | +$10.56 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 46.1¢ | $399.73 | $448.92 | +$49.18 | 56% 13648-10871 (24519) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 59.9¢ | $276.7 | $354.23 | +$77.53 | 56% 12362-9540 (21902) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $249.74 | $244.31 | -$5.43 | 49% 5109-5264 (10373) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $74.73 | $165.33 | +$90.6 | 55% 50261-40839 (91100) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.9¢ | $39.53 | $165.33 | +$125.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 6¢ | $35.21 | — | -$35.21 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 88.7¢ | $227.41 | $222.8 | -$4.61 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 84.2¢ | $221.89 | $235.99 | +$14.11 | 55% 7304-5978 (13282) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $150.21 | $151.73 | +$1.52 | 74% 102310-36356 (138666) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $127.75 | $188.63 | +$60.87 | 59% 6639-4608 (11247) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $95.44 | $188.63 | +$93.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $32.31 | — | -$32.31 | |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $70.65 | $86.28 | +$15.63 | 67% 53194-26607 (79801) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 92.9¢ | $91.97 | $98.95 | +$6.98 | 46% 38032-44873 (82905) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $82.79 | $93.02 | +$10.23 | 57% 10261-7686 (17947) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $66.47 | $50 | -$16.47 | 55% 8523-6955 (15478) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88¢ | $44 | $50 | +$6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.1¢ | $22.47 | — | -$22.47 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $50.42 | — | -$50.42 | 57% 11887-8885 (20772) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $10.1 | — | -$10.1 | 59% 62106-43221 (105327) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $89.86 | — | -$89.86 | 60% 12087-7973 (20060) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $53.58 | $47.39 | +$5.69 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $41.21 | $41.43 | +$0.22 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 34% 18655-35650 (54305) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $19.84 | $29.6 | +$9.76 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $20.2 | $15.04 | -$1.69 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.6¢ | $7.25 | — | -$7.25 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $6.3 | — | -$6.3 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $11.52 | — | -$11.52 | 12% 18218-132938 (151156) |
Invested
$838.44
Value
$849
PnL
+$10.56
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$399.73
Value
$448.92
PnL
+$49.18
Record
56%
13648-10871 (24519)
FairValueMachineInvested
$276.7
Value
$354.23
PnL
+$77.53
Record
56%
12362-9540 (21902)
Invested
$249.74
Value
$244.31
PnL
-$5.43
Record
49%
5109-5264 (10373)
Invested
$74.73
Value
$165.33
PnL
+$90.6
Record
55%
50261-40839 (91100)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$227.41
Value
$222.8
PnL
-$4.61
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$221.89
Value
$235.99
PnL
+$14.11
Record
55%
7304-5978 (13282)
BoneOhioInvested
$150.21
Value
$151.73
PnL
+$1.52
Record
74%
102310-36356 (138666)
Invested
$127.75
Value
$188.63
PnL
+$60.87
Record
59%
6639-4608 (11247)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.65
Value
$86.28
PnL
+$15.63
Record
67%
53194-26607 (79801)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$91.97
Value
$98.95
PnL
+$6.98
Record
46%
38032-44873 (82905)
Invested
$82.79
Value
$93.02
PnL
+$10.23
Record
57%
10261-7686 (17947)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$66.47
Value
$50
PnL
-$16.47
Record
55%
8523-6955 (15478)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.42
Value
—
PnL
-$50.42
Record
57%
11887-8885 (20772)
Invested
$10.1
Value
—
PnL
-$10.1
Record
59%
62106-43221 (105327)
Invested
$89.86
Value
—
PnL
-$89.86
Record
60%
12087-7973 (20060)
Invested
$53.58
Value
$47.39
PnL
+$5.69
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$41.21
Value
$41.43
PnL
+$0.22
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
34%
18655-35650 (54305)
Invested
$19.84
Value
$29.6
PnL
+$9.76
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$1.69
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$7.25
Value
—
PnL
-$7.25
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$6.3
Value
—
PnL
-$6.3
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$11.52
Value
—
PnL
-$11.52
Record
12%
18218-132938 (151156)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $849
GoodFallen
Up — $448.92
FairValueMachine
Up — $354.23
ply-pm0
Up — $244.31
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $222.8
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $235.99
BoneOhio
Up — $151.73
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
Up — $86.28