Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$102.85

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 16 top traders (63%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,469

Combined PnL+$152.5

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares514

Combined PnL-$255.35

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.26	56% 29294-23029 (52323)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$762.75	$843.89	+$81.14	56% 13648-10871 (24519)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$353.79	—	-$353.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$408.95	$843.89	+$434.93
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$479.47	$537.78	+$58.3	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$239.77	—	-$239.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$239.71	$537.78	+$298.07
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 99¢	$603.9	$441.56	-$162.34	55% 50261-40839 (91100)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$166.75	—	-$166.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 99¢	$437.14	$441.56	+$4.42
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$401.38	$392.82	-$8.56	56% 12362-9540 (21902)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$180.43	—	-$180.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$220.95	$392.82	+$171.87
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$299.98	$136.06	-$163.93	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.2¢	$224.01	—	-$224.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$75.97	$136.06	+$60.08
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$192.34	$89.98	-$102.37	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$152.05	—	-$152.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$40.29	$89.98	+$49.69
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 48.5¢	$148.57	—	-$148.57	58% 50888-37027 (87915)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$129.45	$144.27	+$14.81	67% 53194-26607 (79801)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$57.3	—	-$57.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$72.15	$144.27	+$72.12
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 8.8¢	$22.87	$100	+$77.13	51% 17004-16559 (33563)
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.8¢	$11.87	—	-$11.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$11	$100	+$89
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$92.5	$114	+$21.5	77% 9336-2778 (12114)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$53.68	$114	+$60.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$38.82	—	-$38.82
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$104	$90.9	-$13.11	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$52	—	-$52
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$52	$90.9	+$38.89
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$164.7	$148	-$16.7	55% 44484-36982 (81466)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.9¢	$130.14	$148	+$17.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.5¢	$34.56	—	-$34.56
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$50.83	$46.57	-$4.26	60% 12087-7973 (20060)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 29¢	$38.72	$69.39	+$30.67	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 26.7¢	$38.43	$72.35	+$40.84	61% 94398-59400 (153798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$16.2	—	-$16.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.7¢	$19.3	$72.35	+$57.04
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$34.8	—	-$34.8	65% 22398-12314 (34712)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$35.86	—	-$35.86	55% 7304-5978 (13282)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$23.2	—	-$23.2	57% 10261-7686 (17947)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$18.57	$24.81	+$6.24	66% 111875-58207 (170082)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$41.58	$42	+$0.42	93% 22962-1751 (24713)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$29.45	$55.25	+$25.8	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$17.81	$53.08	+$35.27	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$14.32	$36.11	+$21.79	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$12.92	—	-$12.92	57% 7707-5911 (13618)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,094.74

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.26

Record

56%

29294-23029 (52323)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$762.75

Value

$843.89

PnL

+$81.14

Record

56%

13648-10871 (24519)

Both legs:

Up$353.7950.8¢-$353.79

Down$408.9548.5¢+$434.93

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$479.47

Value

$537.78

PnL

+$58.3

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

Both legs:

Up$239.7745.3¢-$239.77

Down$239.7144.6¢+$298.07

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$603.9

Value

$441.56

PnL

-$162.34

Record

55%

50261-40839 (91100)

Both legs:

Up$166.7537.8¢-$166.75

Down$437.1499¢+$4.42

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$401.38

Value

$392.82

PnL

-$8.56

Record

56%

12362-9540 (21902)

Both legs:

Up$180.4345¢-$180.43

Down$220.9556.2¢+$171.87

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$299.98

Value

$136.06

PnL

-$163.93

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

Both legs:

Up$224.0174.2¢-$224.01

Down$75.9755.8¢+$60.08

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$192.34

Value

$89.98

PnL

-$102.37

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

Both legs:

Up$152.0550.1¢-$152.05

Down$40.2944.8¢+$49.69

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$148.57

Value

—

PnL

-$148.57

Record

58%

50888-37027 (87915)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.45

Value

$144.27

PnL

+$14.81

Record

67%

53194-26607 (79801)

Both legs:

Up$57.340.8¢-$57.3

Down$72.1550¢+$72.12

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$22.87

Value

$100

PnL

+$77.13

Record

51%

17004-16559 (33563)

Both legs:

Invested

$92.5

Value

$114

PnL

+$21.5

Record

77%

9336-2778 (12114)

Both legs:

Down$53.6847.1¢+$60.32

Up$38.8245¢-$38.82

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104

Value

$90.9

PnL

-$13.11

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

Both legs:

Invested

$164.7

Value

$148

PnL

-$16.7

Record

55%

44484-36982 (81466)

Both legs:

Down$130.1487.9¢+$17.86

Up$34.5673.5¢-$34.56

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$50.83

Value

$46.57

PnL

-$4.26

Record

60%

12087-7973 (20060)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$38.72

Value

$69.39

PnL

+$30.67

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$38.43

Value

$72.35

PnL

+$40.84

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

Both legs:

Up$16.246.5¢-$16.2

Down$19.326.7¢+$57.04

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

—

PnL

-$34.8

Record

65%

22398-12314 (34712)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$35.86

Value

—

PnL

-$35.86

Record

55%

7304-5978 (13282)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

—

PnL

-$23.2

Record

57%

10261-7686 (17947)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$18.57

Value

$24.81

PnL

+$6.24

Record

66%

111875-58207 (170082)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$41.58

Value

$42

PnL

+$0.42

Record

93%

22962-1751 (24713)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$29.45

Value

$55.25

PnL

+$25.8

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$17.81

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$35.27

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$14.32

Value

$36.11

PnL

+$21.79

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

—

PnL

-$12.92

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 16 top traders (63%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4caa8601...cb6099

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793280000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Up — $0

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded