Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$18.8K
$100.33
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 59% 62106-43221 (105327) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$31.23 | 56% 29294-23029 (52323) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$38.03 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96.6¢ | $894.52 | $924.84 | +$30.33 | 55% 50261-40839 (91100) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 97.8¢ | $774.04 | $791.38 | +$17.34 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 97¢ | $671.69 | $688 | +$16.31 | 57% 7707-5911 (13618) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Upavg 97.6¢ | $231.34 | $221.99 | -$9.35 | 46% 38032-44873 (82905) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 3.7¢ | $14.68 | — | -$14.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 97.6¢ | $216.66 | $221.99 | +$5.33 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $281.77 | $269.97 | -$11.81 | 49% 5109-5264 (10373) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $227.67 | $400.36 | +$172.69 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $210.21 | $247.87 | +$37.66 | 56% 13648-10871 (24519) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.1¢ | $144.12 | $247.87 | +$103.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.8¢ | $66.09 | — | -$66.09 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 60.6¢ | $133.79 | $194 | +$60.21 | 56% 12362-9540 (21902) |
13 13897651CTR | Downavg 55.5¢ | $129.87 | — | -$129.87 | 59% 6639-4608 (11247) |
ST std0 | Upavg 98.2¢ | $106.79 | $94 | -$12.79 | 67% 53194-26607 (79801) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 96¢ | $143.28 | $149.25 | +$5.97 | 58% 60288-44012 (104300) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $66.6 | $50 | -$16.6 | 55% 8523-6955 (15478) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $52.09 | — | -$52.09 | 57% 11887-8885 (20772) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $64.24 | $88 | +$23.76 | 60% 12087-7973 (20060) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 78.8¢ | $59.97 | $66.43 | +$6.46 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.5¢ | $37.65 | — | -$37.65 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 96.9¢ | $65.74 | $65.24 | -$0.49 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.7¢ | $41.62 | — | -$41.62 | 55% 7304-5978 (13282) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 75.1¢ | $13.59 | $18.09 | +$4.5 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.6¢ | $7.77 | — | -$7.77 | 48% 23173-25375 (48548) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.5¢ | $4.81 | — | -$4.81 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3633-2823 (6456) |
Invested
$8,999
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
59%
62106-43221 (105327)
Invested
$3,091.77
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$31.23
Record
56%
29294-23029 (52323)
Invested
$2,317.31
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$38.03
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$894.52
Value
$924.84
PnL
+$30.33
Record
55%
50261-40839 (91100)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$774.04
Value
$791.38
PnL
+$17.34
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$671.69
Value
$688
PnL
+$16.31
Record
57%
7707-5911 (13618)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$231.34
Value
$221.99
PnL
-$9.35
Record
46%
38032-44873 (82905)
Both legs:
Invested
$281.77
Value
$269.97
PnL
-$11.81
Record
49%
5109-5264 (10373)
Invested
$227.67
Value
$400.36
PnL
+$172.69
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$210.21
Value
$247.87
PnL
+$37.66
Record
56%
13648-10871 (24519)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$133.79
Value
$194
PnL
+$60.21
Record
56%
12362-9540 (21902)
Invested
$129.87
Value
—
PnL
-$129.87
Record
59%
6639-4608 (11247)
Invested
$106.79
Value
$94
PnL
-$12.79
Record
67%
53194-26607 (79801)
Invested
$143.28
Value
$149.25
PnL
+$5.97
Record
58%
60288-44012 (104300)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$66.6
Value
$50
PnL
-$16.6
Record
55%
8523-6955 (15478)
Invested
$52.09
Value
—
PnL
-$52.09
Record
57%
11887-8885 (20772)
Invested
$64.24
Value
$88
PnL
+$23.76
Record
60%
12087-7973 (20060)
Invested
$59.97
Value
$66.43
PnL
+$6.46
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$37.65
Value
—
PnL
-$37.65
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$65.74
Value
$65.24
PnL
-$0.49
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$41.62
Value
—
PnL
-$41.62
Record
55%
7304-5978 (13282)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$18.09
PnL
+$4.5
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$7.77
Value
—
PnL
-$7.77
Record
48%
23173-25375 (48548)
Invested
$4.81
Value
—
PnL
-$4.81
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3633-2823 (6456)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
THG.
Up — $3.1K
hoodquant
Up — $2.4K
mo-money
Up — $924.84
MayorMamdani
Up — $791.38
wzbbb
Up — $688
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $269.97
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $400.36
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded