Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$10.6K
-$182.58
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 59% 62106-43221 (105327) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 93.7¢ | $450.65 | $480.99 | +$30.35 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $244.98 | — | -$244.98 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $209.39 | $242.93 | +$33.54 | 59% 6639-4608 (11247) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.2¢ | $146.31 | $242.93 | +$96.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $63.08 | — | -$63.08 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.1¢ | $162.33 | $200 | +$37.67 | 55% 8523-6955 (15478) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83¢ | $123.77 | $120 | -$3.77 | 49% 5109-5264 (10373) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $104.24 | — | -$104.24 | 58% 50888-37027 (87915) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $81.66 | $121.73 | +$40.08 | 57% 11887-8885 (20772) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $64.5 | $80.8 | +$16.3 | 67% 53194-26607 (79801) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $65.12 | $88 | +$22.88 | 60% 12087-7973 (20060) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $65.13 | $58.72 | -$6.41 | 56% 13648-10871 (24519) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $47.16 | $61.86 | +$14.7 | 56% 12362-9540 (21902) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $30.65 | $41.16 | +$12.01 | 55% 7304-5978 (13282) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $30.33 | $41.98 | +$11.65 | 57% 7707-5911 (13618) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $13.35 | $10 | -$3.35 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.88 | $12 | +$0.12 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $13.74 | $11 | -$2.74 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $9.44 | $8 | -$1.44 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.8¢ | $5.46 | — | -$5.46 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $4.1 | — | -$4.1 | 40% 426-649 (1075) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $5 | $7.24 | +$2.24 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 46% 38032-44873 (82905) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 56% 2169-1696 (3865) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3633-2823 (6456) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
59%
62106-43221 (105327)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$450.65
Value
$480.99
PnL
+$30.35
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$244.98
Value
—
PnL
-$244.98
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$209.39
Value
$242.93
PnL
+$33.54
Record
59%
6639-4608 (11247)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$162.33
Value
$200
PnL
+$37.67
Record
55%
8523-6955 (15478)
Invested
$123.77
Value
$120
PnL
-$3.77
Record
49%
5109-5264 (10373)
Invested
$104.24
Value
—
PnL
-$104.24
Record
58%
50888-37027 (87915)
Invested
$81.66
Value
$121.73
PnL
+$40.08
Record
57%
11887-8885 (20772)
Invested
$64.5
Value
$80.8
PnL
+$16.3
Record
67%
53194-26607 (79801)
Invested
$65.12
Value
$88
PnL
+$22.88
Record
60%
12087-7973 (20060)
Invested
$65.13
Value
$58.72
PnL
-$6.41
Record
56%
13648-10871 (24519)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$47.16
Value
$61.86
PnL
+$14.7
Record
56%
12362-9540 (21902)
Invested
$30.65
Value
$41.16
PnL
+$12.01
Record
55%
7304-5978 (13282)
Invested
$30.33
Value
$41.98
PnL
+$11.65
Record
57%
7707-5911 (13618)
Invested
$13.35
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.35
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$11
PnL
-$2.74
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$8
PnL
-$1.44
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$5.46
Value
—
PnL
-$5.46
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$4.1
Value
—
PnL
-$4.1
Record
40%
426-649 (1075)
Invested
$5
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$2.24
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
46%
38032-44873 (82905)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
56%
2169-1696 (3865)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3633-2823 (6456)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
MayorMamdani
Down — $480.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Down — $200
ply-pm0
Down — $120
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
Down — $121.73
std0
Down — $80.8
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $88