Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 31 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,811

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,179

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.43	56% 29294-23029 (52323)
SP spartacray	Downavg 31.8¢	$391.92	$867.51	+$475.59	53% 27048-24076 (51124)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51.4¢	$554.67	—	-$554.67	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$692.9	$853.49	+$160.59	51% 17004-16559 (33563)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$422.38	—	-$422.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$270.52	$853.49	+$582.97
machinelearned	Downavg 35.7¢	$272.71	$474.19	+$201.48	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 81.6¢	$734.6	—	-$734.6	48% 23173-25375 (48548)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$492.34	$771.32	+$278.98	56% 13648-10871 (24519)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$204.57	—	-$204.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$287.78	$771.32	+$483.54
MayorMamdani	Downavg 88.4¢	$439.06	$411.88	-$27.18	55% 44484-36982 (81466)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 22¢	$129.75	—	-$129.75	57% 70341-53444 (123785)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 44.5¢	$330.36	—	-$330.36	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 71¢	$416.76	—	-$416.76	56% 57773-44618 (102391)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 52.7¢	$255.67	$336.28	+$80.61	66% 111875-58207 (170082)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$345.31	$574.5	+$229.19	56% 12362-9540 (21902)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$101.1	—	-$101.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$244.21	$574.5	+$330.29
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$315.54	$140.02	-$175.52	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$246.18	—	-$246.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$69.36	$140.02	+$70.66
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 66.9¢	$254.3	—	-$254.3	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$220.69	—	-$220.69	58% 60288-44012 (104300)
pspspsps5	Downavg 8¢	$18.71	$202.33	+$183.62	46% 38032-44873 (82905)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$226.37	$95.16	-$131.21	34% 18655-35650 (54305)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$184.19	—	-$184.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$42.18	$95.16	+$52.98
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$88.7	—	-$88.7	57% 10261-7686 (17947)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$156.21	$290.19	+$133.98	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.6¢	$62.35	—	-$62.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$93.86	$290.19	+$196.33
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 19.5¢	$100.13	$414.2	+$314.06	57% 7707-5911 (13618)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 76.5¢	$95.6	$104.52	+$8.92	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$112	$204.78	+$92.78	55% 23763-19206 (42969)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$31.59	—	-$31.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$80.41	$204.78	+$124.37
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 89.9¢	$109.1	$78.61	-$30.49	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$76.58	—	-$76.58	58% 50888-37027 (87915)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,081.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.43

Record

56%

29294-23029 (52323)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$391.92

Value

$867.51

PnL

+$475.59

Record

53%

27048-24076 (51124)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$554.67

Value

—

PnL

-$554.67

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$692.9

Value

$853.49

PnL

+$160.59

Record

51%

17004-16559 (33563)

Both legs:

Up$422.3852.1¢-$422.38

Down$270.5231.7¢+$582.97

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$272.71

Value

$474.19

PnL

+$201.48

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$734.6

Value

—

PnL

-$734.6

Record

48%

23173-25375 (48548)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$492.34

Value

$771.32

PnL

+$278.98

Record

56%

13648-10871 (24519)

Both legs:

Up$204.5759¢-$204.57

Down$287.7837.3¢+$483.54

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$439.06

Value

$411.88

PnL

-$27.18

Record

55%

44484-36982 (81466)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$129.75

Value

—

PnL

-$129.75

Record

57%

70341-53444 (123785)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$330.36

Value

—

PnL

-$330.36

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$416.76

Value

—

PnL

-$416.76

Record

56%

57773-44618 (102391)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$255.67

Value

$336.28

PnL

+$80.61

Record

66%

111875-58207 (170082)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$345.31

Value

$574.5

PnL

+$229.19

Record

56%

12362-9540 (21902)

Both legs:

Up$101.148.1¢-$101.1

Down$244.2142.5¢+$330.29

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$315.54

Value

$140.02

PnL

-$175.52

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

Both legs:

Up$246.1860.2¢-$246.18

Down$69.3649.5¢+$70.66

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$254.3

Value

—

PnL

-$254.3

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$220.69

Value

—

PnL

-$220.69

Record

58%

60288-44012 (104300)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$18.71

Value

$202.33

PnL

+$183.62

Record

46%

38032-44873 (82905)

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$226.37

Value

$95.16

PnL

-$131.21

Record

34%

18655-35650 (54305)

Both legs:

Up$184.1963.5¢-$184.19

Down$42.1844.3¢+$52.98

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$88.7

Value

—

PnL

-$88.7

Record

57%

10261-7686 (17947)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.21

Value

$290.19

PnL

+$133.98

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

Both legs:

Up$62.3565.6¢-$62.35

Down$93.8632.3¢+$196.33

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$100.13

Value

$414.2

PnL

+$314.06

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$95.6

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$8.92

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$112

Value

$204.78

PnL

+$92.78

Record

55%

23763-19206 (42969)

Both legs:

Up$31.5956.3¢-$31.59

Down$80.4139.3¢+$124.37

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$109.1

Value

$78.61

PnL

-$30.49

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$76.58

Value

—

PnL

-$76.58

Record

58%

50888-37027 (87915)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 31 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xcbba66ba...8cccb9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793277000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.1K

+$31.43

spartacray

Down — $867.51

+$475.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $474.19

+$201.48

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $411.88

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0