Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$337.96

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,732

Combined PnL+$476.89

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares862

Combined PnL-$814.85

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.1	56% 29294-23029 (52323)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$487.81	$437.49	-$50.32	56% 13648-10871 (24519)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$208.09	$437.49	+$229.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$279.73	—	-$279.73
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 87.6¢	$448.12	—	-$448.12	57% 70341-53444 (123785)
SP spartacray	Upavg 48.6¢	$296.86	$347.31	+$50.45	53% 27048-24076 (51124)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44.8¢	$301.4	$672.99	+$371.6	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 75¢	$222.66	$260.53	+$37.87	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$229.14	$203.51	-$25.62	56% 12362-9540 (21902)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$106.96	$203.51	+$96.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$122.18	—	-$122.18
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 61.4¢	$235.83	$204	-$31.83	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 25.6¢	$80.95	$190.96	+$110.01	55% 23763-19206 (42969)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 88.9¢	$206.05	$170.5	-$35.55	55% 44484-36982 (81466)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Downavg 74¢	$127.65	—	-$127.65	51% 872-847 (1719)
ST std0	Upavg 55.1¢	$153.85	$150.45	-$3.4	67% 53194-26607 (79801)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Downavg 87.2¢	$146.65	—	-$146.65	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$230.72	$79.68	-$151.05	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$40.72	$79.68	+$38.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.1¢	$190	—	-$190
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$90.8	$76.41	-$14.39	77% 9336-2778 (12114)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$53.49	$76.41	+$22.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.3¢	$37.31	—	-$37.31
pspspsps5	Upavg 83.9¢	$175.71	$116.99	-$58.72	46% 38032-44873 (82905)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 93¢	$64.8	$60	-$4.8	57% 10261-7686 (17947)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$94.63	$60	-$20.69	65% 22398-12314 (34712)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 76.4¢	$130.07	$116.74	-$13.33	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$40.27	—	-$40.27	65% 3983-2152 (6135)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$33.14	—	-$33.14	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 25¢	$20.85	$53	+$32.15	57% 7707-5911 (13618)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89.1¢	$92.3	$78.94	-$12.86	61% 94398-59400 (153798)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$23.76	$24	+$0.24	93% 22962-1751 (24713)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$19.03	—	-$19.03	58% 50888-37027 (87915)

THG.

Invested

$3,078.9

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.1

Record

56%

29294-23029 (52323)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$487.81

Value

$437.49

PnL

-$50.32

Record

56%

13648-10871 (24519)

Both legs:

Up$208.0947.6¢+$229.41

Down$279.7332.8¢-$279.73

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$448.12

Value

—

PnL

-$448.12

Record

57%

70341-53444 (123785)

spartacray

Invested

$296.86

Value

$347.31

PnL

+$50.45

Record

53%

27048-24076 (51124)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$301.4

Value

$672.99

PnL

+$371.6

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$222.66

Value

$260.53

PnL

+$37.87

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$229.14

Value

$203.51

PnL

-$25.62

Record

56%

12362-9540 (21902)

Both legs:

Up$106.9652.6¢+$96.56

Down$122.1829.6¢-$122.18

ply-pm0

Invested

$235.83

Value

$204

PnL

-$31.83

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

sir-upalot

Invested

$80.95

Value

$190.96

PnL

+$110.01

Record

55%

23763-19206 (42969)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$206.05

Value

$170.5

PnL

-$35.55

Record

55%

44484-36982 (81466)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Down

Invested

$127.65

Value

—

PnL

-$127.65

Record

51%

872-847 (1719)

std0

Invested

$153.85

Value

$150.45

PnL

-$3.4

Record

67%

53194-26607 (79801)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Down

Invested

$146.65

Value

—

PnL

-$146.65

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$230.72

Value

$79.68

PnL

-$151.05

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

Both legs:

Up$40.7251.1¢+$38.95

Down$19069.1¢-$190

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$90.8

Value

$76.41

PnL

-$14.39

Record

77%

9336-2778 (12114)

Both legs:

Up$53.4970¢+$22.92

Down$37.3115.3¢-$37.31

pspspsps5

Invested

$175.71

Value

$116.99

PnL

-$58.72

Record

46%

38032-44873 (82905)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$64.8

Value

$60

PnL

-$4.8

Record

57%

10261-7686 (17947)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$94.63

Value

$60

PnL

-$20.69

Record

65%

22398-12314 (34712)

asdaefef

Invested

$130.07

Value

$116.74

PnL

-$13.33

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.27

Value

—

PnL

-$40.27

Record

65%

3983-2152 (6135)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.14

Value

—

PnL

-$33.14

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$53

PnL

+$32.15

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$92.3

Value

$78.94

PnL

-$12.86

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$23.76

Value

$24

PnL

+$0.24

Record

93%

22962-1751 (24713)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.03

Value

—

PnL

-$19.03

Record

58%

50888-37027 (87915)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1545d65f...d7a5ca

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793276700

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

spartacray

Up — $347.31

+$50.45

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $672.99

+$371.6

EZTRADENL2

Up — $260.53

+$37.87

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$25.62

ply-pm0

Up — $204

-$31.83

sir-upalot

Up — $190.96

+$110.01

MayorMamdani

Up — $170.5

-$35.55

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