Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$57.02

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$660.63

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$185.66

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares469

Combined PnL-$242.67

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$652.19	$675.01	+$22.82	49% 5109-5264 (10373)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$186.55	—	-$186.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$465.64	$675.01	+$209.37
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$442.18	$629.2	+$187.03	56% 13648-10871 (24519)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$361.15	$629.2	+$268.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$81.02	—	-$81.02
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$463.1	$496.96	+$33.86	53% 27048-24076 (51124)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.1¢	$393.17	$496.96	+$103.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.6¢	$69.93	—	-$69.93
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$172.94	$294.04	+$121.1	56% 12362-9540 (21902)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$143.99	$294.04	+$150.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$28.95	—	-$28.95
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$108.14	$164.74	+$56.59	57% 11887-8885 (20772)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$83.12	$164.74	+$81.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$25.02	—	-$25.02
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 68.3¢	$164.45	$230.01	+$65.56	55% 23763-19206 (42969)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 59.2¢	$104.28	—	-$104.28	60% 12087-7973 (20060)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$97.6	$84.83	-$12.77	66% 111875-58207 (170082)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$43.47	—	-$43.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$54.13	$84.83	+$30.7
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$77.91	—	-$77.91	55% 17660-14270 (31930)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.5¢	$66.54	$126.8	+$60.26	58% 37571-26826 (64397)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$62.34	$92.79	+$30.45	57% 70341-53444 (123785)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$61.2	$60.8	-$0.4	57% 10261-7686 (17947)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$30	—	-$30
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$31.2	$60.8	+$29.6
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$32.64	—	-$32.64	57% 7707-5911 (13618)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$77.25	$78.36	+$1.11	55% 8523-6955 (15478)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$55.71	$61.22	+$5.51	67% 53194-26607 (79801)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$42.03	$61.22	+$19.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.1¢	$13.69	—	-$13.69
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$43.02	$46	+$2.98	34% 18655-35650 (54305)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$26	—	-$26
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$17.02	$46	+$28.98
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$19.8	—	-$19.8	55% 7304-5978 (13282)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$40.67	$46.15	+$5.48	65% 22398-12314 (34712)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 97¢	$34.15	$35.21	+$1.06	63% 51566-30344 (81910)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52¢	$13.35	$21.25	+$7.9	59% 6639-4608 (11247)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	46% 38032-44873 (82905)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$8.3	$15.12	+$6.82	66% 125156-64405 (189561)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$4.86	$9.44	+$4.58	52% 89831-84292 (174123)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.54	—	-$0.54	77% 9336-2778 (12114)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 55¢	$2.85	$5.18	+$2.33	61% 94398-59400 (153798)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$652.19

Value

$675.01

PnL

+$22.82

Record

49%

5109-5264 (10373)

Both legs:

Up$186.5527.6¢-$186.55

Down$465.6469¢+$209.37

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$442.18

Value

$629.2

PnL

+$187.03

Record

56%

13648-10871 (24519)

Both legs:

Down$361.1557.4¢+$268.05

Up$81.0230.1¢-$81.02

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$463.1

Value

$496.96

PnL

+$33.86

Record

53%

27048-24076 (51124)

Both legs:

Down$393.1779.1¢+$103.79

Up$69.9330.6¢-$69.93

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.94

Value

$294.04

PnL

+$121.1

Record

56%

12362-9540 (21902)

Both legs:

Down$143.9949¢+$150.05

Up$28.9538.6¢-$28.95

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.14

Value

$164.74

PnL

+$56.59

Record

57%

11887-8885 (20772)

Both legs:

Down$83.1250.5¢+$81.61

Up$25.0222¢-$25.02

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$164.45

Value

$230.01

PnL

+$65.56

Record

55%

23763-19206 (42969)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$104.28

Value

—

PnL

-$104.28

Record

60%

12087-7973 (20060)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.6

Value

$84.83

PnL

-$12.77

Record

66%

111875-58207 (170082)

Both legs:

Up$43.4755.2¢-$43.47

Down$54.1363.8¢+$30.7

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$77.91

Value

—

PnL

-$77.91

Record

55%

17660-14270 (31930)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$66.54

Value

$126.8

PnL

+$60.26

Record

58%

37571-26826 (64397)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$62.34

Value

$92.79

PnL

+$30.45

Record

57%

70341-53444 (123785)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.2

Value

$60.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

10261-7686 (17947)

Both legs:

Up$3050¢-$30

Down$31.251.3¢+$29.6

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$32.64

Value

—

PnL

-$32.64

Record

57%

7707-5911 (13618)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$77.25

Value

$78.36

PnL

+$1.11

Record

55%

8523-6955 (15478)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.71

Value

$61.22

PnL

+$5.51

Record

67%

53194-26607 (79801)

Both legs:

Down$42.0368.7¢+$19.19

Up$13.6932.1¢-$13.69

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

$46

PnL

+$2.98

Record

34%

18655-35650 (54305)

Both legs:

Up$2650¢-$26

Down$17.0237¢+$28.98

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

—

PnL

-$19.8

Record

55%

7304-5978 (13282)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$40.67

Value

$46.15

PnL

+$5.48

Record

65%

22398-12314 (34712)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$34.15

Value

$35.21

PnL

+$1.06

Record

63%

51566-30344 (81910)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$13.35

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$7.9

Record

59%

6639-4608 (11247)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

46%

38032-44873 (82905)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$8.3

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$6.82

Record

66%

125156-64405 (189561)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$4.86

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$4.58

Record

52%

89831-84292 (174123)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$0.54

Value

—

PnL

-$0.54

Record

77%

9336-2778 (12114)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$2.33

Record

61%

94398-59400 (153798)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa147f1fd...500bc4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793276400

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

sir-upalot

Down — $230.01

+$65.56

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $126.8

+$60.26

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