Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 78%
2 arb excluded
$5.7K
$942.08
Smart Money Signal
22 of 28 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$1.64 | 59% 62106-43221 (105327) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $453.68 | $998.11 | +$544.43 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 88.1¢ | $380.87 | $432.23 | +$51.37 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $416.79 | $421 | +$4.21 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 86.4¢ | $258.08 | $292.73 | +$34.65 | 53% 27048-24076 (51124) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 73.8¢ | $278.26 | $267.42 | -$10.84 | 55% 8523-6955 (15478) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $169.72 | $244.2 | +$74.48 | 59% 6639-4608 (11247) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $149.23 | $150.12 | +$0.9 | 49% 5109-5264 (10373) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $126.82 | $92.34 | -$34.48 | 56% 13648-10871 (24519) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.5¢ | $63.92 | — | -$63.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $62.9 | $92.34 | +$29.44 | |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 80.7¢ | $121 | $150 | +$29 | 55% 23763-19206 (42969) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 45¢ | $111.24 | $247.27 | +$136.03 | 58% 50888-37027 (87915) |
DV dvasdkasodk | Upavg 96.3¢ | $103.15 | $106 | +$2.85 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $99.79 | $139.99 | +$40.2 | 57% 11887-8885 (20772) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 91.3¢ | $93.3 | $90 | -$3.3 | 67% 53194-26607 (79801) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $78.1 | $85 | +$6.9 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $85.04 | $84.35 | -$0.69 | 55% 7304-5978 (13282) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.8¢ | $57.18 | $84.35 | +$27.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.8¢ | $27.86 | — | -$27.86 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $40.2 | $60 | +$19.8 | 65% 124635-66673 (191308) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $52.51 | $66.89 | +$14.38 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $32.96 | $45.56 | +$12.6 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $28.69 | $30 | +$1.31 | 56% 12362-9540 (21902) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $22.88 | — | -$22.88 | 60% 12087-7973 (20060) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $25.66 | $34.25 | +$8.59 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $10 | +$2.7 | 40% 426-649 (1075) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $3.76 | $4.76 | +$1 | 62% 43666-26656 (70322) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 46% 38032-44873 (82905) |
Invested
$1,639.72
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.64
Record
59%
62106-43221 (105327)
Invested
$453.68
Value
$998.11
PnL
+$544.43
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$380.87
Value
$432.23
PnL
+$51.37
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$416.79
Value
$421
PnL
+$4.21
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$258.08
Value
$292.73
PnL
+$34.65
Record
53%
27048-24076 (51124)
machinelearnedInvested
$278.26
Value
$267.42
PnL
-$10.84
Record
55%
8523-6955 (15478)
Invested
$169.72
Value
$244.2
PnL
+$74.48
Record
59%
6639-4608 (11247)
Invested
$149.23
Value
$150.12
PnL
+$0.9
Record
49%
5109-5264 (10373)
Invested
$126.82
Value
$92.34
PnL
-$34.48
Record
56%
13648-10871 (24519)
Both legs:
Invested
$121
Value
$150
PnL
+$29
Record
55%
23763-19206 (42969)
Invested
$111.24
Value
$247.27
PnL
+$136.03
Record
58%
50888-37027 (87915)
Invested
$103.15
Value
$106
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$99.79
Value
$139.99
PnL
+$40.2
Record
57%
11887-8885 (20772)
Invested
$93.3
Value
$90
PnL
-$3.3
Record
67%
53194-26607 (79801)
Invested
$78.1
Value
$85
PnL
+$6.9
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$85.04
Value
$84.35
PnL
-$0.69
Record
55%
7304-5978 (13282)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$19.8
Record
65%
124635-66673 (191308)
Invested
$52.51
Value
$66.89
PnL
+$14.38
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$32.96
Value
$45.56
PnL
+$12.6
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$28.69
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.31
Record
56%
12362-9540 (21902)
Invested
$22.88
Value
—
PnL
-$22.88
Record
60%
12087-7973 (20060)
Invested
$25.66
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$8.59
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.7
Record
40%
426-649 (1075)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$1
Record
62%
43666-26656 (70322)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
46%
38032-44873 (82905)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $1.6K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $998.11
MayorMamdani
Up — $432.23
hoodquant
Up — $421
spartacray
Up — $292.73
machinelearned
Up — $267.42
13897651
Up — $244.2
ply-pm0
Up — $150.12
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sir-upalot
Up — $150