Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 92%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$682.42
Smart Money Signal
24 of 27 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$16.67 | 56% 29294-23029 (52323) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.01 | 93% 22962-1751 (24713) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $239.28 | $253.49 | +$14.21 | 56% 13648-10871 (24519) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.6¢ | $73.88 | — | -$73.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.2¢ | $165.4 | $253.49 | +$88.09 | |
SP spartacray | Downavg 81¢ | $300.52 | $365.04 | +$64.52 | 53% 27048-24076 (51124) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $390.01 | $395.29 | +$5.28 | 46% 38032-44873 (82905) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $144.4 | $160.83 | +$16.43 | 49% 5109-5264 (10373) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $103.92 | $160.83 | +$56.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.5¢ | $40.48 | — | -$40.48 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $194.04 | $266.21 | +$72.17 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 49¢ | $122.84 | $250.69 | +$127.85 | 34% 18655-35650 (54305) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 49¢ | $88.06 | $173.35 | +$85.29 | 59% 6639-4608 (11247) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 50.2¢ | $59.46 | $115 | +$55.54 | 57% 10261-7686 (17947) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.4¢ | $70.61 | $120 | +$49.39 | 56% 12362-9540 (21902) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $81.36 | $127.23 | +$45.87 | 57% 11887-8885 (20772) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 72.2¢ | $80.57 | $111.52 | +$30.95 | 55% 44484-36982 (81466) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $51.74 | $109 | +$57.26 | 58% 37571-26826 (64397) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $32.56 | — | -$32.56 | 55% 7304-5978 (13282) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $51.28 | $72.12 | +$20.84 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $44.01 | $51.99 | +$7.98 | 61% 94398-59400 (153798) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $30.04 | $46.93 | +$16.9 | 62% 43666-26656 (70322) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $35.04 | $46.93 | +$11.89 | 66% 125156-64405 (189561) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $31.24 | $44 | +$12.76 | 60% 12087-7973 (20060) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $19.96 | $31.62 | +$11.66 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95.7¢ | $34.57 | $36.14 | +$1.57 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $32.85 | $35 | +$2.15 | 67% 53194-26607 (79801) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $12.91 | $11.64 | -$1.27 | 55% 8523-6955 (15478) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $10 | +$2.6 | 40% 426-649 (1075) |
Invested
$1,650.37
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$16.67
Record
56%
29294-23029 (52323)
Invested
$1,471.56
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$16.01
Record
93%
22962-1751 (24713)
Invested
$239.28
Value
$253.49
PnL
+$14.21
Record
56%
13648-10871 (24519)
Both legs:
Invested
$300.52
Value
$365.04
PnL
+$64.52
Record
53%
27048-24076 (51124)
pspspsps5Invested
$390.01
Value
$395.29
PnL
+$5.28
Record
46%
38032-44873 (82905)
Invested
$144.4
Value
$160.83
PnL
+$16.43
Record
49%
5109-5264 (10373)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.04
Value
$266.21
PnL
+$72.17
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$122.84
Value
$250.69
PnL
+$127.85
Record
34%
18655-35650 (54305)
Invested
$88.06
Value
$173.35
PnL
+$85.29
Record
59%
6639-4608 (11247)
Invested
$59.46
Value
$115
PnL
+$55.54
Record
57%
10261-7686 (17947)
FairValueMachineInvested
$70.61
Value
$120
PnL
+$49.39
Record
56%
12362-9540 (21902)
Invested
$81.36
Value
$127.23
PnL
+$45.87
Record
57%
11887-8885 (20772)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$80.57
Value
$111.52
PnL
+$30.95
Record
55%
44484-36982 (81466)
Invested
$51.74
Value
$109
PnL
+$57.26
Record
58%
37571-26826 (64397)
Invested
$32.56
Value
—
PnL
-$32.56
Record
55%
7304-5978 (13282)
Invested
$51.28
Value
$72.12
PnL
+$20.84
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Invested
$44.01
Value
$51.99
PnL
+$7.98
Record
61%
94398-59400 (153798)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$30.04
Value
$46.93
PnL
+$16.9
Record
62%
43666-26656 (70322)
Invested
$35.04
Value
$46.93
PnL
+$11.89
Record
66%
125156-64405 (189561)
Invested
$31.24
Value
$44
PnL
+$12.76
Record
60%
12087-7973 (20060)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$11.66
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
$34.57
Value
$36.14
PnL
+$1.57
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
Invested
$32.85
Value
$35
PnL
+$2.15
Record
67%
53194-26607 (79801)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$12.91
Value
$11.64
PnL
-$1.27
Record
55%
8523-6955 (15478)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.6
Record
40%
426-649 (1075)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $1.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Down — $365.04
pspspsps5
Down — $395.29
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $266.21
Little-big
Down — $250.69
13897651
Down — $173.35
trdyugiolkw
Down — $115