Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$62.58

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,349

Combined PnL+$296.81

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares448

Combined PnL-$234.23

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$2.05	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 44¢	$444.85	$831	+$386.15	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$365.26	$831	+$465.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$79.59	—	-$79.59
SP spartacray	Upavg 80.1¢	$333.92	$371.57	+$37.65	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$258.52	$233.48	-$25.05	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$147.14	$233.48	+$86.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$111.38	—	-$111.38
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$229.15	$226.54	-$2.61	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.1¢	$158.88	$226.54	+$67.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$70.27	—	-$70.27
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$151.46	$293.65	+$142.18	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$116.33	$293.65	+$177.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$35.13	—	-$35.13
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 53.7¢	$100.93	$187.89	+$86.96	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$121.1	$129.99	+$8.89	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$77.67	$129.99	+$52.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.7¢	$43.42	—	-$43.42
machinelearned	Upavg 45¢	$92.25	$150	+$57.75	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$99.81	—	-$99.81	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 77¢	$105.85	$127.41	+$21.56	55% 17653-14260 (31913)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 80¢	$71.14	$67.64	-$3.5	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80¢	$54.14	$67.64	+$13.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.7¢	$17	—	-$17
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$53.25	—	-$53.25	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92.2¢	$56.53	$58.26	+$1.73	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$62	$80.95	+$18.95	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84¢	$75.81	$69.86	-$5.95	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$50.25	$47.23	-$1.46	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$44.69	—	-$44.69	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$41.99	$53	+$11.01	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$47.68	$34.58	+$6.7	65% 22359-12289 (34648)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$30.78	$40	+$9.22	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$24.64	—	-$24.64	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 67¢	$12.27	$17.99	+$5.72	46% 38019-44852 (82871)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 27¢	$6.21	$23	+$16.79	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 26.7¢	$6.14	$23	+$16.86	12% 18180-132911 (151091)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,047.23

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$2.05

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$444.85

Value

$831

PnL

+$386.15

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

Both legs:

Up$365.2644¢+$465.74

Down$79.5947.5¢-$79.59

spartacray

Invested

$333.92

Value

$371.57

PnL

+$37.65

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$258.52

Value

$233.48

PnL

-$25.05

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Up$147.1463¢+$86.34

Down$111.3835.4¢-$111.38

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$229.15

Value

$226.54

PnL

-$2.61

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

Both legs:

Up$158.8870.1¢+$67.66

Down$70.2724.7¢-$70.27

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$151.46

Value

$293.65

PnL

+$142.18

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

Both legs:

Up$116.3339.6¢+$177.32

Down$35.1364.3¢-$35.13

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$100.93

Value

$187.89

PnL

+$86.96

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$121.1

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$8.89

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

Both legs:

Up$77.6759.8¢+$52.32

Down$43.4237.7¢-$43.42

machinelearned

Invested

$92.25

Value

$150

PnL

+$57.75

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$99.81

Value

—

PnL

-$99.81

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$105.85

Value

$127.41

PnL

+$21.56

Record

55%

17653-14260 (31913)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$71.14

Value

$67.64

PnL

-$3.5

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.25

Value

—

PnL

-$53.25

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$56.53

Value

$58.26

PnL

+$1.73

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$80.95

PnL

+$18.95

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$75.81

Value

$69.86

PnL

-$5.95

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$47.23

PnL

-$1.46

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.69

Value

—

PnL

-$44.69

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$41.99

Value

$53

PnL

+$11.01

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$34.58

PnL

+$6.7

Record

65%

22359-12289 (34648)

std0<$100

Invested

$30.78

Value

$40

PnL

+$9.22

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.64

Value

—

PnL

-$24.64

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$12.27

Value

$17.99

PnL

+$5.72

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$23

PnL

+$16.79

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$23

PnL

+$16.86

Record

12%

18180-132911 (151091)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa411e60f...c39490

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793275500

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $2.0K

+$2.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$386.15

spartacray

Up — $371.57

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $187.89

+$86.96

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.89

machinelearned

Up — $150

+$57.75

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

CTR

Down — $0

-$99.81

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