Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$969.04
Smart Money Signal
15 of 20 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.8¢ | $960.67 | $882.06 | -$78.61 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 85.5¢ | $1.1K | $641.33 | -$426.1 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 70.5¢ | $402.35 | $536.99 | +$134.64 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $308.29 | $307.27 | -$1.02 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $223.6 | — | -$223.6 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 84.9¢ | $338.17 | $309.43 | -$28.74 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 90.2¢ | $202.07 | $218.43 | +$16.36 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 32.2¢ | $176.67 | $123 | -$53.67 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $59.4 | $123 | +$63.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $117.27 | — | -$117.27 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 92¢ | $185.34 | $108.51 | -$76.82 | 57% 7702-5901 (13603) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 81.8¢ | $130.19 | $113.35 | -$16.84 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $112.08 | $90 | -$22.08 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $35.1 | $90 | +$54.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.2¢ | $76.98 | — | -$76.98 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 57.5¢ | $117.79 | — | -$117.79 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $80.95 | — | -$80.95 | 55% 7296-5969 (13265) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $46.44 | — | -$46.44 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $51.77 | $50 | -$1.77 | 67% 53187-26596 (79783) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $62.02 | $51.84 | -$9.68 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $43.36 | $32.36 | +$5.78 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.4¢ | $15.12 | — | -$15.12 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $17.92 | $16 | -$1.92 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.6 | $10.12 | +$1.52 | 55% 17653-14260 (31913) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $9.99 | $8.06 | -$1.93 | 66% 111846-58190 (170036) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3632-2823 (6455) |
Invested
$960.67
Value
$882.06
PnL
-$78.61
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Invested
$1,067.43
Value
$641.33
PnL
-$426.1
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
Invested
$402.35
Value
$536.99
PnL
+$134.64
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$308.29
Value
$307.27
PnL
-$1.02
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Invested
$223.6
Value
—
PnL
-$223.6
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$338.17
Value
$309.43
PnL
-$28.74
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
machinelearnedInvested
$202.07
Value
$218.43
PnL
+$16.36
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Invested
$176.67
Value
$123
PnL
-$53.67
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.34
Value
$108.51
PnL
-$76.82
Record
57%
7702-5901 (13603)
Invested
$130.19
Value
$113.35
PnL
-$16.84
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$112.08
Value
$90
PnL
-$22.08
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.79
Value
—
PnL
-$117.79
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
Invested
$80.95
Value
—
PnL
-$80.95
Record
55%
7296-5969 (13265)
Invested
$46.44
Value
—
PnL
-$46.44
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$51.77
Value
$50
PnL
-$1.77
Record
67%
53187-26596 (79783)
Invested
$62.02
Value
$51.84
PnL
-$9.68
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$43.36
Value
$32.36
PnL
+$5.78
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$15.12
Value
—
PnL
-$15.12
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$17.92
Value
$16
PnL
-$1.92
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$1.52
Record
55%
17653-14260 (31913)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$8.06
PnL
-$1.93
Record
66%
111846-58190 (170036)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3632-2823 (6455)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $882.06
uninformedfloww
Down — $641.33
spartacray
Down — $536.99
ply-pm0
Down — $307.27
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $309.43
machinelearned
Down — $218.43
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Down — $108.51
asdaefef
Down — $113.35